Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

27 Feb 2015, 01:24pm by Aaron Schatz

The Combine Survivor Effect

For years now, analytics people have been attempting to find some sort of correlation between NFL combine results and success in the league, so we can use the combine to provide some guidance on who should be drafted, and when. For the most part, these studies fail to find any connection. Even when we play around with combine results here at FO, we don't really get good forecasts unless we blend them with college game stats, as in Playmaker Score and SackSEER. This is a really interesting theory from Brian Burke over at Advanced Football Analytics explaining why this is.

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3 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2015, 4:28pm by bloggesrdog

24 Feb 2015, 02:16pm by Vincent Verhei

How Madden Ratings Are Made

Neil Paine at FiveThirtyEight has a look at the folks at Electronic Arts who determine which players get a 95 and which get a 94, and then deal with the fallout from unhappy NFL stars. Includes a brief look at the history of football video games, including the phenomenally under-rated Front Page Sports: Football Pro, which had the best playbook editor I've ever seen.

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18 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2015, 4:28pm by bloggesrdog

24 Feb 2015, 07:48am by Matt Waldman

RSP Boiler Room: UGA WR Chris Conley

Chris Conley blew up the Combine. He looks good on tape, too.

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1 comment, Last at 27 Mar 2015, 4:28pm by bloggesrdog

23 Feb 2015, 10:46am by Matt Waldman

Conversion Program: OT T.J. Clemmings

Eric Stoner gives an excellent primer of o-line footwork while profiling his pet project in this year’s draft, a former defensive lineman converted to offensive tackle.

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19 Feb 2015, 11:02am by Andrew Healy

One Play Away: Most Influential Plays in NFL History

After a wild postseason that included the most influential play in NFL history (by a mile), here is an updated version of some analysis that I've done at Football Perspective, a list of the 25 most important plays in the Super Bowl era.

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34 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2015, 4:28pm by bloggesrdog

16 Feb 2015, 05:45pm by Aaron Schatz

Introducing Expected Contract Value

Great series over the past week on the website OvertheCap.com featuring a new metric by Bryce Johnston. The idea here is to come up with a metric for measuring the value of a contract that gives us the most accurate accounting of how much of the contract is likely to be earned by the player. Johnston used regression analysis to determine that roughly 80 percent of the decision-making about when to cut NFL players is driven only by the numbers of the contract, not the actual value of the player.

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17 comments, Last at 24 Feb 2015, 2:33pm by Never Surrender

13 Feb 2015, 07:25pm by Aaron Schatz

Want to Help FO? It's Guest Column and Extra Points Submission Time!

Hey, readers. I just wanted to remind everyone that the offseason is the best time for Football Outsiders to be running guest columns. You can submit your ideas or rough drafts to us at mailbag-at-footballoutsiders.com. We're looking for deep stat analysis and new ideas or theories, although we're willing to look past that for excellent film analysis or Tanier-level humor. Please excuse the fact that we're sometimes very slow to respond to e-mails. We do get to them all, we promise.

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10 Feb 2015, 08:56pm by Vincent Verhei

Wisdom Of The Crowds: Greatest QB Of All-Time

For those of you who really, really like to rank things, Chase Stuart and the gang at FootballPerspective.com are asking for reader submissions for the top 25 quarterbacks of all time, in order. The theory is, the more submissions they get, the more accurate their survey will be. So if you're so inclined, let your opinion be heard -- er, read.

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107 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2015, 4:29pm by bloggesrdog

09 Feb 2015, 07:09pm by Aaron Schatz

NFL Films Founder Ed Sabol Dead at 98

Sabol was elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2011 and was given a Lifetime Achievement Emmy in 2003. His son Steve, of course, passed away due to brain cancer two years ago.

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7 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2015, 4:29pm by bloggesrdog

09 Feb 2015, 12:48pm by Aaron Schatz

MMQB: The Super Bowl According to Tom Brady

Good MMQB today by Peter King, in-depth interviews as Josh McDaniels and Tom Brady review their strategy going into the comeback drives in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl XLIX. Among the tidbits: they basically realized the only way to beat the Seahawks was death by a thousand paper cuts. Also, updates on the various cheating scandals around the league and whether Darren Sharper should cause us to question the Hall of Fame standards which state players should be considered for football only.

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2 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2015, 4:29pm by bloggesrdog