For those curious, I thought I would post the results of FO's first "expert league" draft of the season. This is a "Pros vs. Joes" league run by Fantasy Football Players Championship, with six professional football writers and six random FFPC players. It's done by FFPC rules, which means:

• PPR for WR and RB, and 1.5 PPR for TE, which turns out to be very important.
• An absurdly long 26-round draft, but then no moves whatsoever. The team you draft is your team, period.
• Best scores of the week are counted without any worry about starters vs. bench.

The ramifications of this:

• If you are in an FFPC league, be aware, the tight ends go OBSCENELY early. I used the KUBIAK workbook and had tight ends listed with 1.5 points per reception and no "waiver adjustment," but they still went far earlier than I had listed. We have Aaron Hernandez far higher than ADP, and he came out 28th on KUBIAK. He went 22nd. KUBIAK listed Jason Witten, Brandon Pettigrew, and Antonio Gates all around 50th. They went 30th, 43rd, and 26th, in that order. Once I realized what was going on, my hope was to wait and catch our big sleeper pick Kyle Rudolph, but I waited one round too long. As a result, I ended up with a bunch of mediocre tight ends, hoping that one of them can pull a decent game each week.
• With a league like this, upside matters more than stability after the top 60 or 70 players, because you want to hit a guy who might get a starting job and put up a big week, rather than a guy who just gets 50 yards every week. That's how I end up with a couple Patriots near the end; you never know who might have the big game there.
• Readers know that I think kickers and defenses are more predictable than people think, and they are often worth as many points as anyone but quarterbacks, so I wanted to make sure to grab two good kickers and two good defenses with complementary schedules.

One other thing I should note: I took Marshawn Lynch a lot higher than he currently is listed in KUBIAK because I was talking to Mike Sando yesterday, and he doesn't think Lynch is going to get suspended. Unless Roger Goodell wants to go out of his way to make Lynch an example, the fact is that his prior arrests don't matter; DUIs are considered separately under the drug policy, not the conduct policy. I'll be updating KUBIAK to reflect this later this morning.

I had the 10th pick in odd-numbered rounds, third pick in even-numbered rounds.

Here's the FO team:

QB: Tom Brady (2), Kevin Kolb (16), Matt Moore (22), Brian Hoyer (24), John Skelton (25). Arizona and Miami have reasonable matchups during the Patriots' bye week and the weeks they play the Jets. Week 3 could be a problem if the Ravens shut down Brady, as Arizona plays Philadelphia and Miami has the Jets.

RB: MJD (1), Marshawn Lynch (4), Shonn Greene (6), Jonathan Stewart (7), Rashard Mendenhall (15), Danny Woodhead (21). Surprised Mendenhall lasted that long, as he likely will start half the season.

WR: Mike Wallace (3), Percy Harvin (5), Reggie Wayne (8), Denarious Moore (9), Sidney Rice (10), Jabar Gaffney (23). I bet Gaffney has one huge game in a random week this year. Moore, like Rudolph, is a KUBIAK sleeper who a lot of FO readers will end up with this year.

TE: Marcedes Lewis (11), Tony Moeaki (12), Dennis Pitta (13), Ben Watson (20), Dennis Allen (26). Throwing crap at the wall.

K: Mason Crosby (18), Rob Bironas (19)

DEF/ST: Bears (14), Jets (17)

You can download the rosters and draft order here if you would like to check them out and discuss them.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 25 Jul 2012

12 comments, Last at 30 Jul 2012, 1:38am by Dan