Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

02 Oct 2012

Santonio Holmes Probably Done for Year

Jason Cole of Yahoo is reporting that, as many people expected, Santonio Holmes has a Lisfranc injury and is very likely done for the season. So now rookie Stephen Hill is the Jets' No. 1 receiver -- once he gets his hamstring healthy, of course -- and Chaz Schilens is No. 2. And Tim Tebow might be the one throwing them passes soon. Yikes. I stayed on the Jets playoff bandwagon longer than pretty much anyone else, but I'm off it now.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 02 Oct 2012

27 comments, Last at 06 Oct 2012, 2:55pm by Noah of Arkadia

Comments

1
by Aloysius Mephis... :: Tue, 10/02/2012 - 11:24pm

The instant I saw Holmes crumple to the ground, in agony and without contact, I assumed his season was over (though at first I thought it was his knee). I'm glad he doesn't seem to have caught too much heat for that fumble. When you're badly injured the overriding instinct is to grab the part of your body that's hurt.

2
by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Tue, 10/02/2012 - 11:38pm

Yeah, I think the precedent for taking flak for a needless-but-post-serious-injury turnover was set last year with Kenny Britt... nobody really remembers (or cared at the time) that he gave up the ball when he blew out his knee, and it seemed more or less equally unnecessary.

3
by dmstorm22 :: Tue, 10/02/2012 - 11:46pm

The amazing part of this is someone has to get that last Wild-Card spot.

Right now, barring injuries or wild fluctuations in play, it seems like Houston, Baltimore, New England are all close to locks to make the playoffs. Denver and San Diego are pretty sure bets as well, given their schedules and their record already.

Who's getting that last spot.

It is almost like NFL Protocol that about half of the previous years playoff teams get replaced, but the most likely scenario has four 2011 playoff teams out of those five. The leading candidate for the 6th seed is who? Can Cincinnati actually do it again (their schedule isn't too bad)? Can Pittsburgh rise from the ashes? Is it going to be Buffalo? Can one of those AFC South teams cobble together 9 wins?

This is like what the NFC was in 2004 and 2006, where the 6 seeds were just completely average teams.

9
by Podge (not verified) :: Wed, 10/03/2012 - 8:29am

In answer to your questions: Bengals or Steelers, probably, probably, no, god no.

What about the Dolphins? A mean defence will go a long way.

10
by ammek :: Wed, 10/03/2012 - 8:51am

I don't think the Chargers are a sure bet at all. DVOA and DAVE both prefer Miami.

13
by dmstorm22 :: Wed, 10/03/2012 - 11:10am

Playoff odds prefer the Chargers, as do mean wins, largely because the Chargers are already 3-1, while the Dolphins are 1-3.

14
by djanyreason :: Wed, 10/03/2012 - 11:53am

Its week 4. 63 games have been played, out of 256 in the entire season. Relying on the playoffs odds report as gospel, let alone saying 5 teams are already "close to locks" or "sure bets" for the playoffs is a bit premature, don't ya think?

17
by dmstorm22 :: Wed, 10/03/2012 - 12:58pm

I did say that barring injury or a wild fluctuation in play. Of course it is a bit premature, but isn't that what makes projecting playoff teams fun.

15
by Noah of Arkadia :: Wed, 10/03/2012 - 11:59am

This is hilarious, I was going to say Miami, too, but only because I like them. Most likely Pittsburgh.

------
FO posters are a peacock. You got to let us fly!

4
by Marko :: Wed, 10/03/2012 - 12:22am

That heading should instead read "Jets Definitely Done for Year." And really, that could have been posted last week when Revis got hurt.

5
by BigCheese :: Wed, 10/03/2012 - 12:53am

Indeed. The only difference is that now we can really say that the Jets, going forward, are truly the worst team in the NFL. While they might have two wins up on the Browns right now, I think Jets fans will defintiely get a chance to boo the first overall pick next march.

- Alvaro

Phil Simms is to analysts what Ryan Leaf is to NFL QBs

7
by Paddy Pat :: Wed, 10/03/2012 - 3:33am

This comment is ridiculous. The Jets will still be scrappy and competitive even with all of this misery heaped on them. I imagine something like 6 wins and possibly more. They are fundamentally sound on defense and have enough other pieces to compete with all of the weak teams on their schedule.

12
by DEW (not verified) :: Wed, 10/03/2012 - 11:05am

Much as I hate to say things like this, since it deals with intangibles and flirts with complimenting a guy whose public persona annoys the crap out of me, if the Jets ARE "scrappy and competitive" going forward and post more than six wins, it'll say a lot of good things about Ryan's coaching ability. This teams was anticipated to be a mess starting the season, and now four games in their best defensive player (and one whose ability really can change how an offense plays in dramatic fashion) and their best offensive player (and only truly reliable WR) are both done for the year. Their quarterback has posted an under-50% completion percentage, Tebow is waiting in the wings to rouse an absolute frenzy of a QB controversy if they continue to play badly through the next few games, and they just got blown out of the building by an admittedly quite good 49ers team. And their next game is against arguably the best team in the league.

16
by Noah of Arkadia :: Wed, 10/03/2012 - 12:03pm

Fundamentally sound on defense? They have no passrush, which is why Revis was doubly important. I'm not sure the defense won't crumble. Add the locker room woes, the distractions, and the emotional make up of the team (in my opinion it's a team designed to handle winning well and losing poorly) and they very well could end near the bottom of the league.

------
FO posters are a peacock. You got to let us fly!

19
by jackiel :: Wed, 10/03/2012 - 7:08pm

If the Jets score a TD on the drive in which Holmes fumbled, it's 17-7 with 12 minutes left. Until the injury, the game was moderately closer than the final score would indicate.

Sanchez has played this poorly before, even when he was surrounded by much better teammates. It stands to reason that he'll play better in the future.

There are still 7 winnable games on schedule (Indy and Miami at home and Seattle, STL, Jacksonville, TEN, and BUF on the road). That's a 9 win season.

If a betting house's over/under is 6 wins, I'd definitely bet heavily on the over.

21
by Noah of Arkadia :: Thu, 10/04/2012 - 10:08am

It also stands to reason Sanchez will play like this again. Sometimes better, sometimes only slightly so. Sometimes just as badly and you'd better hope that was his worst game of the season.

Mistaking "winnable" for "won" is the road to disappointment. And don't think for a second fans of all of those teams aren't also penciling the Jets game as winnable now.

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FO posters are a peacock. You got to let us fly!

26
by jackiel :: Thu, 10/04/2012 - 7:42pm

Sanchez's average level of performance is better than what he showed last week. I don't think anyone can dispute that.

No game is "won" until after it's completed. I was just refuting earlier points that they'll be in the running for the worst record in the league. I think that scenario is highly unlikely, given the remaining schedule, and feel that they are likely to finish the season with over 6 wins.

27
by Noah of Arkadia :: Sat, 10/06/2012 - 2:55pm

We'll see. The Jets are the kind of team I could see giving up on the season under the right circumstances, and they seem to be in much worse shape than in past years where they didn't do that great in the regular season, so a very poor record is not out of the question.

------
FO posters are a peacock. You got to let us fly!

6
by Sifter :: Wed, 10/03/2012 - 1:02am

Tebow has to play now right? No WRs is perfect for him because he can't hit them anyway.

8
by Paddy Pat :: Wed, 10/03/2012 - 3:34am

I like the notion that perhaps he won't go on IR like Revis, just in case they make it to the Super Bowl... Who needs roster spots?

11
by JStreet (not verified) :: Wed, 10/03/2012 - 9:04am

I had to look it up to remember what a Lisfranc injury was, and I think the wikipedia page for it was recently updated: " In extreme cases, the injury may cause the player to immediately relinquish possession of the ball to the opposing team for no apparent reason whatsoever."

18
by Biebs :: Wed, 10/03/2012 - 2:08pm

Wow.

The Jets will most likely be without

Holmes - #1 WR
Hill - #2 WR
Keller - TE (What the hell kind of hamstring injury does he have?)

and Revis #1 DB

They already had the worst RB core in the NFL (Shonn Greene is the defenition of a plodding RB, Bilal Powell, and Joe McKnight)
They now have the worst WRs in football (Schilens is #1, Kerley is #2... I don't even know who is #3

They also have among the worst starting QBs in the NFL

I'm curious if this is the end of Rex Ryan in New York, it certainly should be the end of Mike Tannenbaum. The offensive talent on the Jets is truly pitiful.

20
by Bem (not verified) :: Thu, 10/04/2012 - 12:40am

The way you put it definantly reflects much worse on Tannebaum than Ryan. I think Ryan is a good coach who has most certainly gotten the most out of his Jets teams the past few years, especially when it counts. I remember the playoff game against New England, when they employed 5-7 defensive backs all game to stymie the Pats passing attack. He is a good gameplanner, in my opinion. He has just been handed a lockeroom full of malcontents

22
by Noah of Arkadia :: Thu, 10/04/2012 - 10:13am

So you think it's just a coincidence or karma's revenge that those players reflect their coach's personality? I have a hard time believing that. I'm pretty sure Rex had a hand in picking these guys.

-Hey, Rex, how would you like if we traded for Santonio? Before you answer, let me remind you that...

-Hell, yeah! Bring him over! He's a winner! That's all we're going to do around these parts for a very long time, anyway.

Except, when you start losing, neither your coach nor your locker room is prepared to deal with it.

------
FO posters are a peacock. You got to let us fly!

23
by tuluse :: Thu, 10/04/2012 - 11:47am

Are you implying that Santonio Holmes was injured because Rex Ryan thought he was a winner?

24
by Jerry Garcia (not verified) :: Thu, 10/04/2012 - 4:57pm

Big Jets fan here, and I love the philles too. So I just ended a season where we lost howard and utley, and now I'm going through the grief cycle again regading revis, and now holmes. It's gonna be another long season... I wish all of you the best of luck with your teams and your favorite players this year - the football Gods work in mysterious ways....

25
by Jerry Garcia (not verified) :: Thu, 10/04/2012 - 5:28pm

Big Jets fan here, and I love the philles too. So I just ended a season where we lost howard and utley, and now I'm going through the grief cycle again regading revis, and now holmes. It's gonna be another long season... I wish all of you the best of luck with your teams and your favorite players this year - the football Gods work in mysterious ways....