Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

04 Oct 2012

SITE NEWS: Midseason KUBIAK Posted

The midseason KUBIAK projections have now been posted. You get them free if you purchased regular KUBIAK in the preseason. Simply click the MY FO DOWNLOADS button on the top of the left-side column, then download KUBIAK2012.zip just like you did in the preseason.

Please note that the midseason projections do not include IDP stats or punt/kickoff return yardage.

If you find technical errors, please post here, however I will not have time to answer any specific questions about why Player X is higher or lower than you would have otherwise expected.

UPDATE: Macro functionality is now fixed.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 04 Oct 2012

8 comments, Last at 05 Oct 2012, 11:20am by mental

Comments

1
by MatMan :: Thu, 10/04/2012 - 12:52pm

Do the new numbers reflect expected performances over all 16 games, or just games remaining? And do they incorporate actual stats through the first 4 weeks, or are they purely projections based on formulae, like the preseason numbers?

2
by Aaron Schatz :: Thu, 10/04/2012 - 1:38pm

1) Games remaining.

2) The projections are now based on DAVE instead of the preseason projections. Roles have been adjusted to reflect current roles (or "once Norv Turner comes to his freaking senses" roles). We also account for players who are performing much better or worse than their previous forecasts, particularly rookies, since four games to go on are still better than zero games to go on.

3
by MulXEdgeGJJ :: Thu, 10/04/2012 - 3:05pm

Chargers WR Vincent Brown is on the list twice

4
by timmy (not verified) :: Thu, 10/04/2012 - 3:41pm

Any intuition on why QBs are so low? My league is pretty standard scoring, but the top 39 guys are RB and WR.

7
by boone88rr :: Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:54am

The ranking is based on FPOB. If you sorted by Dynamic Fantasy Points they would all be at the top.

5
by Sifter :: Thu, 10/04/2012 - 4:35pm

Aaron I wonder if you'd take 2 minutes to talk about the playoff adjustments, it seems there are some random variances eg. Fred Jackson is 92%, CJ Spiller is 99%. Jamaal Charles is 102%, Peyton Hillis is 111%. Is there a reason for this? Should the outliers be ignored?

Appreciate the work you guys do on the update :)

6
by Mr. Housebroken :: Thu, 10/04/2012 - 9:01pm

In the past is the mid season update more or less accurate than preseason forecasts? I am surprised by the increases and some decreases. NYJets DEF still high after injuries? Roethlisberger? really?

8
by mental :: Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:20am

+1

These two projections, and to a lesser degree guys like the DAL offense, Donald Brown, and Carson Palmer, jumped right off the page as significantly out of line with conventional thinking.

Also, where is the appropriate place to discuss, here or the discussion forum?