26 Apr 2012
Most everyone knows about the infamous draft trade value chart, which at this point is pretty much outdated, and universally ridiculed. Fewer people know that Doug Drinen of Pro Football Reference fame updated it back in April 2008. Even fewer people know that I extended this idea of basing draft pick values on "expected career approximate value" as part of a series of posts on Niners Nation in April 2010.
The idea is that, based on an analysis of post-merger NFL draft history, each slot is reliably associated with a given amount of expected career approximate value (AV). Therefore, if we take each teams allocated draft slots, and add up all of the expected AVs for those slots, we end up with a total expected AV for each team's entire draft.
I went ahead and applied this concept to the 2012 draft (as the picks stand right now), and came up with the table below. As the table shows, Cleveland -- mostly because they have 13 picks -- are expected to get the most value from the 2012 draft. On the other end of the spectrum, the scandal-plagued Saints are going to need a value-maximizing miracle in order to come away with a meaningful draft class this year. The beauty of all this, of course, is that we can evaluate -- say, six years from now -- how well each team did in relation to expectations.
(Of course, as I was writing this, the Browns dealt three of their picks. That trade is not included in the table below.)
|Team||No. of Picks||Total Expected AV|
44 comments, Last at 02 May 2012, 9:49pm by Pat (filler)
Five different teams from last year's DVOA top eight rank in the bottom half of the league through four weeks of 2014. What can we learn from other teams with similar starts in the past?