Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

11 Nov 2013

Fade Into the Red Zone

Good analysis here by Jason Lisk, who analyzed all passes near the red zone this season and came up with a heat map showing where passes were successful and where they were not. He finds some support for the anti-fade forces out there, and reasons to show short of the end zone to get YAC rather than throwing every pass all the way for six.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 11 Nov 2013

3 comments, Last at 11 Nov 2013, 8:21pm by LionInAZ

Comments

1
by Trogdor :: Mon, 11/11/2013 - 11:52am

My first guess as to why the fade is so popular despite the lower success rate is that it's safe. One thing coaches hate more than settling for a field goal is turning the ball over, and the fade should be one of the least likely passes to be intercepted.

2
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Mon, 11/11/2013 - 1:39pm

"reasons to show short of the end zone to get YAC rather than throwing every pass all the way for six"

Lions-like coaching detected!

3
by LionInAZ :: Mon, 11/11/2013 - 8:21pm

Too bad it rarely works. Much like the web site linked to, where the advertisements on the right side crowded out the story every time I tried to scroll the page.