Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

05 Aug 2013

FOA 2013 MEDIA: SB Nation

As in past years, we've done a number of interviews with various SB Nation websites to promote Football Outsiders Almanac 2013. We'll update this thread with links to each interview as they go online.

Updated as they come in...

UPDATED MONDAY 2:00 p.m. EDT

Arizona: 5 questions about the Arizona Cardinals for Football Outsiders

Buffalo: Buffalo Rumblings interview with Aaron Schatz

Chicago: Windy City Gridiron interview with Rivers McCown

Cleveland: Dawgs by Nature interview with Mike Tanier, Part I

Denver: Mile High Report interview with Andy Benoit with notes from Aaron Schatz

Detroit: Pride of Detroit interview with Rivers McCown

Houston: Houston Texans Q&A with Football Outsiders

Jacksonville: Jaguars Q&A with Brian McIntyre

Minnesota: Q&A with Rivers McCown on The Daily Norseman

San Diego: Q&A with Andy Benoit on Bolts From The Blue

San Francisco: Danny Tuccitto podcast on Niners Nation

Seattle: Field Gulls interview with Vince Verhei

Tampa Bay: Bucs Nation interview with Vince Verhei

Tennessee: Football Outsiders on the 2013 Titans

Washington: Hogs Haven interview with Doug Farrar

ADDED TUESDAY

Atlanta Falcons: Three Questions with Football Outsiders (Rob Weintraub)

Carolina Panthers: Football Outsiders Q&A with Vince Verhei

Cincinnati Bengals: Football Outsiders Q&A with Mike Tanier

Dallas Cowboys: A quick conversation with Football Outsiders (Rivers McCown)

Green Bay: Season Preview Q&A with Football Outsiders (Rivers McCown)

Indianapolis Colts: Q&A with Football Outsiders (Brian McIntyre)

New York Jets: Gang Green Nation: Five Questions with Football Outsiders (actually, with Chase Stuart)

Oakland Raiders: Five Good Questions with Football Outsiders (Andy Benoit)

Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers Season Forecast with Football Outsiders (Mike Tanier)

San Diego Chargers: Chargers Q&A with Football Outsiders (Andy Benoit)

Posted by: Rivers McCown on 05 Aug 2013

15 comments, Last at 06 Aug 2013, 6:15pm by Karl Cuba

Comments

1
by bingo762 :: Thu, 08/01/2013 - 9:50am

That link takes me right back to this site

2
by Tom Gower :: Thu, 08/01/2013 - 11:12am

Link updated.

3
by theslothook :: Thu, 08/01/2013 - 4:33pm

Danny - I think Kaep's minimal starts does imply something. If its difficult as is to judge qb performance, then the only real way to really gauge it is over a period of time. I agree, you can't knock Kaep and then in the same vein ignore that potential issue with the Wilson, Luck and Rg3.

This is my personal opinion - but I think Kaep and Wilson fall into a unique category, in that they are successful but their teams are amazingly talented. Both bost stellar o lines, innovative coaches, and great run games supported by excellent defense. Yes, Kaep and Wilson both came back in games, but those could be the result of small sample size. After all, the 49ers secondary came unglued in all three if its playoff games, despite being good all year.

Bottom line, its premature to call Kaep a great qb at this point.

4
by Danny Tuccitto :: Thu, 08/01/2013 - 11:35pm

I don't disagree with any of that. As you mentioned, I was just responding to the absurdity of people bringing up "Kaepernick's only started 10 games" as a knock on him when all these other guys have started like 16-18.

My only other response, with tongue firmly in cheek, is that I'm not going to do a Niners Nation podcast and say Kaepernick isn't great. Oh, the flame war that would start!

5
by theslothook :: Fri, 08/02/2013 - 3:08pm

Fair enough :P

6
by RickD :: Sat, 08/03/2013 - 1:50am


Yes, Kaep and Wilson both came back in games, but those could be the result of small sample size.

How would leading a comeback be an effect of a small sample size?

I'm not seeing what random variable would be relevant here.

8
by theslothook :: Mon, 08/05/2013 - 4:42pm

It was actually in reference to a statement he made in the podcast - that their comebacks demonstrate their ability to bring their teams back from behind.

9
by Danny Tuccitto :: Mon, 08/05/2013 - 7:19pm

Since I think I see now where the confusion is arising, here's something just to clarify...

The statement I made in the podcast about their comebacks was a larger argument in the context of the question David asked me. What I was trying to argue by bringing up Kaep's comebacks against ATL and BAL -- albeit a point made implicitly rather than explicitly -- was simply that...

If people are concerned about him having only 10 starts because they wish a SB contender like SF had a more experienced quarterback, then a) Where's the same concern about Wilson (or Griffin or Luck)? b) Why is the quantity of games started more important than the meaningfulness of the games he started and the quality of his play in those meaningful games? In other words, saying he's only started 10 games implies that one is concerned with his inexperience, but ignoring (b) above means one is misinformed about no how learning works (i.e., the actual reason why "gaining experience" is important). Basically, I was making a sport psych point about how the quality of practice can accelerate an athlete's learning curve above and beyond what he gets from the sheer quantity of practice; and those were some seriously high-quality in-game reps he was getting over those 10 starts.

What I wasn't saying -- but what stats-savvy FO readers might be hearing -- is that 10 starts is a meaningful sample for assessing a QB's true value. It's not, and I conceded as much in my earlier comment. In my answer, I was assuming that the "he only has 10 starts" critique was being levied by some fans, not by NFL analytics people hip to the vagaries of measurement methodology. But, I guess, I should know what they say about assuming...

10
by theslothook :: Tue, 08/06/2013 - 2:54am

Sorry Danny. I didn't want to come off as hostile to your comments. Honestly, in the way you've laid out your thoughts, there's nothing at all I disagree with. And, btw, I do in fact understand your larger argument, which was this nebulous sort of criticism about Kaep's 10 starts. In some ways, if he had played poorly, the overall interpretation would have been that this is exactly what his true value should be. Since he played so well, it must be small sample related. I get it.

This is less to do with Kaep, but I will be very interested to see how much the read option continues to be deployed with Wilson and Rg3. Ie - will those organizations naturally scale those back or will they do it till teams learn to stop it. As for Kaep, I actually think the opposite might be the case. Since he was so effective, especially in the playoffs, running the ball - maybe the 49ers might use it even more going forward.

11
by theslothook :: Tue, 08/06/2013 - 2:54am

Sorry Danny. I didn't want to come off as hostile to your comments. Honestly, in the way you've laid out your thoughts, there's nothing at all I disagree with. And, btw, I do in fact understand your larger argument, which was this nebulous sort of criticism about Kaep's 10 starts. In some ways, if he had played poorly, the overall interpretation would have been that this is exactly what his true value should be. Since he played so well, it must be small sample related. I get it.

This is less to do with Kaep, but I will be very interested to see how much the read option continues to be deployed with Wilson and Rg3. Ie - will those organizations naturally scale those back or will they do it till teams learn to stop it. As for Kaep, I actually think the opposite might be the case. Since he was so effective, especially in the playoffs, running the ball - maybe the 49ers might use it even more going forward.

7
by Ed White (not verified) :: Mon, 08/05/2013 - 3:52pm

Your SB Nation article on the Falcons indicates that Mr. Weintraub doesn't know that John Abraham signed with the Cardinals a while back. Not good for your credibility...

12
by Aaron Schatz :: Tue, 08/06/2013 - 11:39am

We've been working on responses to these questionnaires for a couple weeks, and it turns out Rob was the first person to respond. So his comment about Abraham was actually written the day BEFORE Abraham signed in Arizona.

14
by theslothook :: Tue, 08/06/2013 - 4:07pm

Can you explain to me why your first inclination when something like this happens is that FO writers MUST BE sleeping on the job?

13
by jklps :: Tue, 08/06/2013 - 12:24pm

I really enjoy reading these, but the formula for the comments is kind of funny:

FO: Makes some statement that NFL team will not be 100% perfect best ever all time!

Commenters: FO just hates on us, they are jerks!

15
by Karl Cuba :: Tue, 08/06/2013 - 6:15pm

You forgot the LOL, as in "LOL, FO doesn't love us they must be jerks".