02 Jan 2013
Due to some technical issues, when we posted our Playoff Odds Report on Monday it was based on only 5,000 simulation runs. This led to some strange results that didn't quite make sense. (For example, a NE-SF Super Bowl was listed as more likely than a DEN-SF Super Bowl even though DEN is more likely to make the Super Bowl than NE.) We've now got an updated version that runs 50,000 simulations and provides more accurate odds. The 12 teams are still in the same order, but there are some small changes.
Five different teams from last year's DVOA top eight rank in the bottom half of the league through four weeks of 2014. What can we learn from other teams with similar starts in the past?