02 Jan 2013
Due to some technical issues, when we posted our Playoff Odds Report on Monday it was based on only 5,000 simulation runs. This led to some strange results that didn't quite make sense. (For example, a NE-SF Super Bowl was listed as more likely than a DEN-SF Super Bowl even though DEN is more likely to make the Super Bowl than NE.) We've now got an updated version that runs 50,000 simulations and provides more accurate odds. The 12 teams are still in the same order, but there are some small changes.
Short-yardage passing had a good year, except at the end of the Super Bowl. We look at the return of quarterback runs, the rise in pass-happy strategy, and 2014 success rates for offense and defense.