Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

21 Apr 2013

It's Official: Jets Deal Revis to Bucs

The Buccaneers and Jets have agreed on the framework of a deal sending Darrelle Revis to Tampa, pending a physical and a new contract for Revis. The deal is expected to be completed tonight or tomorrow and the Jets will be getting multiple picks, including Tampa's 13th overall pick in this week's draft.

I fall more on the side of keeping Revis than I imagine most would be. (I know Chase Stuart, Jets fan, wanted them to deal him.) I just think that under smart management, it's not that hard to turn a team around in a few years. Players that have produced at Revis' level, even if they are expensive and risky coming off injury, are extremely rare. That said, hard to fault the Jets for pulling the trigger on this reported compensation package, and Mike Tannenbaum left this roster very bare.

UPDATE: The deal is officially done. The Jets get the 13th overall pick in this year's draft and a conditional third- or fourth-round pick in 2014. Revis signs a six-year, $96 million contract with Tampa Bay. No word yet on how many actual guaranteed dollars are in that contract.

Posted by: Rivers McCown on 21 Apr 2013

54 comments, Last at 24 Apr 2013, 4:29am by Mr Shush

Comments

1
by MZ3692 :: Sun, 04/21/2013 - 2:16pm

Makes a great deal of sense. The Bucs are starving for a shutdown corner and if Revis comes back at close to full strength, it's not a bad trade.

31
by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Mon, 04/22/2013 - 8:34am

" if Revis comes back at close to full strength, it's not a bad trade."

Its a 1st and a 3rd to pay him $16M a year. That seems like an awful lot of draft pick compensation to give up to me for what is essentially a market deal.

2
by justanothersteve :: Sun, 04/21/2013 - 4:18pm

Who are the Bucs bidding against? I don't think the Bucs should offer anything higher than a second round pick. I don't know of any team that has the picks, the cap space, and the willingness to trade to beat that.

Tampa would still be taking a chance on a player who is coming off an ACL injury. Not everyone is Adrian Peterson. I agree with those who say that Revis was the best cover CB in the game before his injury. But there's no guarantee he'll be at that level again. I wouldn't offer more than a second round pick. If the Jets don't want that deal, good luck finding another trade partner.

3
by jonnyblazin :: Sun, 04/21/2013 - 4:34pm

Well, the Jets didn't have to trade him. If all the Bucs were to only offer was a 2nd, then the Jets would just keep Revis. I don't think the new GM would want his first big move to be trading away a player for well less than he's worth.

6
by RedDog (not verified) :: Sun, 04/21/2013 - 5:12pm

1st this year plus conditional 3 or 4 next season looks fair for the Bucs.

They could have drafted a corner at 13 this year and gotten a bust, or they can spend the pick on Revis, who is at least proven. If his play will not be the same, they will have wasted a first rounder plus 16 million. And the Bucs are hardly strapped on cap space.

So ... fair deal for all three.

Whether you want to hand 16 million per year on a corner when the high water mark in free agency is 5.5 million, that is another question. The Jets said no, the Bucs said yes, but they can cut him after the season or after two seasons and not owe him a dime.

4
by RickD :: Sun, 04/21/2013 - 4:40pm

I wish Revis the best of luck in the NFC South!

And now the Pats will only have to face him once this season instead of twice.

I honestly think this was the right move for the Jets. While Revis is a great player, you just cannot build a team around a cornerback all by himself. The team has too many holes and needs more talent all over the place.

9
by herewegobrowniesherewego (not verified) :: Sun, 04/21/2013 - 6:01pm

I'm liking the Brownies' chances against the Jets this year now that this is probably going through. You guys, on the other hand, are a guaranteed loss (granted, I said that in 2010, but that was here and not on the road.)

10
by Theo :: Sun, 04/21/2013 - 6:38pm

Are they drafting wide receivers, a tight end and linemen on offense and defense?

14
by herewegobrowniesherewego (not verified) :: Sun, 04/21/2013 - 7:30pm

Who, my team? It is hard to say. The common wisdom is Milliner at 6, but a lot of people are saying a trade down (to Miami at 12 was rumored, and now it's possible that they could get this #13 pick.) After that, we haven't heard much either way. They have significant changes in their D-line already, and of course they're satisfied with Thomas and Mack, and want to keep Schwartz because of his experience with Mack, but not sure about the other slots. I wanted them to do more with WR in FA, but they are obviously satisfied with Gordon, and still want to give Little a chance as far as I can see.

5
by Dan :: Sun, 04/21/2013 - 5:00pm

Initial reports are the 13th overall pick, plus a conditional 3rd or 4th rounder next year. And a 6 year, $96 million contract with no money guaranteed.

7
by jonnyblazin :: Sun, 04/21/2013 - 5:31pm

What a bizarre contract. I don't think that's a great deal for Revis, I'd much rather have a chunk of guaranteed money than having to worry year after year about staying healthy and productive. From the Bucs perspective, it keeps Revis motivated to be great every year.

8
by Dan :: Sun, 04/21/2013 - 5:55pm

The contract is bizarre for being so straightforward. Revis gets $16M each year, for as long as the Bucs want to keep him, up to 6 years. $1.5M/yr of that comes in the form of workout bonuses. And that's it.

$16M/yr is at the very high end of the range that people were talking about for Revis, which is good for him, especially considering how it has not been a players' market this offseason. He's already made a ton of money so he doesn't need a big guarantee, and the Bucs are protected in case he doesn't return to form after his injury (or he has other issues). It's actually a pretty sensible way to structure a star player's third contract.

35
by Isaac Shalev (not verified) :: Mon, 04/22/2013 - 12:19pm

From Revis' perspective, it's $10 million in new money this year that is essentially guaranteed. Even if his level of play does diminish a bit, TB is likely to pick up the $16 million next year too, since they have so much cap space that they're going to run into problems spending the minimum. Overpaying Revis isn't such a terrible idea for them. Looks like a reasonable deal for both sides.

11
by cisforcookie (not verified) :: Sun, 04/21/2013 - 6:52pm

I think this is a steal by the jets and an idiot move by the bucs. revis is a headache coming off a major knee injury. just the contract with revis alone has no upside at all because either (a) he performs like 2 years ago and might be worth 16 mil or (b) he underperforms, in which case you're screwed. and for this they gave up a haul in top draft picks? meanwhile the jets get to save face and get a ton of picks to re-stock a horrible roster. keeping revis was worthless to them because they weren't going to contend in the next 2 years anyway.

the only way this deal makes sense for the bucs is if they thought this made them a serious superbowl contender. if this were the patriots or broncos, I'd understand this deal. but this bucs team went 7-9 in a surprisingly weak nfc south. they don't have a single strong unit defensively. they have a sketchy qb and a sketchy OL.

22
by MehlLageman56 (not verified) :: Sun, 04/21/2013 - 9:42pm

The Jets did not get a ton of picks. They got two.

26
by cisforcookie (not verified) :: Sun, 04/21/2013 - 10:44pm

they got the number 13 this year and a likely 3rd rounder next year. I guess it's not like trading for jon gruden, but that's a ton of draft pick value. plus it gets the jets off the hook for revis's cap-killing contract.

39
by MehlLageman56 (not verified) :: Mon, 04/22/2013 - 2:16pm

The Jets got two first rounders for Keyshawn Johnson. The Patriots got a first rounder and a third rounder (in the same draft) for Curtis Martin when he signed as a restricted free agent with the Jets, and the Pats were still not happy. So the Jets got a first round pick and a third round pick next year, which means it is less compensation than what the Pats got, for a Hall of Fame player. Why not higher? Because they sold low. If you trade Revis later in the rehab process, when he can practice, you would get more in a trade. But they need the pick now, instead of waiting for next year. Why? So they can try to save Rex Ryan's job?
I'm sorry if I sound cranky, but in the last two days my Jets fanship jumped the shark. And no, Revis' contract (the one with the Jets or the one he signed with the Bucs) is not cap-killing. Sanchez' contract is cap-killing. By the way, Revis' cap hit just went up this year for the Jets. Because they traded him.

46
by Biebs :: Mon, 04/22/2013 - 8:55pm

I don't think trading Revis later would get more picks for the Jets. Nothing between now and the start of the season would change that much. Also, trading Revis is enough to hurt Rex Ryan, whether picks come this year or next, is a bit irrelevant.

As for the cap contract, yes, his cap number went up by $3M, however, if they waited until after 6/1, Revis would have counted for $9M against the Jets cap in 2014, even if he was gone.

The reason the Jets couldn't get more was because Revis wasn't franchised.

12
by dryheat :: Sun, 04/21/2013 - 6:55pm

Good move for the Jets. In a capped system, you just cant't commit that much money to a corner, not even a great one. Revis has thus far proven to be the ultimate wielder of leverage, the player answer to the GM that constantly forces a player to renegotiate downwards. I don't hold that against him, but to me in my GM hat, he's not worth the annual headache.

19
by MehlLageman56 (not verified) :: Sun, 04/21/2013 - 9:31pm

They could have next year; they would be 34 million under the cap, even with the contract Revis signed with the Bucs. Which had no guaranteed money.

29
by dryheat :: Mon, 04/22/2013 - 7:50am

Sorry for the confusion. I meant not afford to devote that much cap space to a cornerback and still put a winning product on the field.

13
by Noah of Arkadia :: Sun, 04/21/2013 - 7:22pm

In related news, Rex Ryan just got fired after week 17.

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FO posters are a peacock. You got to let us fly!

16
by komakom (not verified) :: Sun, 04/21/2013 - 8:35pm

It would be monumentally stupid to both recognize that Ryan probably wasn't the problem over the last few seasons, and then not extend that to this year.

18
by MehlLageman56 (not verified) :: Sun, 04/21/2013 - 9:28pm

It would also be stupid to fire a defensive genius coach when the team lands one of the four or five sure fire rookie qbs next year. But I wouldn't bet against them not doing it; I'm a Jets fan, and I know their history.

24
by Noah of Arkadia :: Sun, 04/21/2013 - 10:25pm

This is a results-driven league. Ryan was lucky to keep his job after last season, but if the team doesn't get better, I can't see how he would be given another year. On how much of what's happened is his fault, that's hard to say. Some of it, for sure.

------
FO posters are a peacock. You got to let us fly!

41
by MehlLageman56 (not verified) :: Mon, 04/22/2013 - 2:31pm

I've got the answer. As a Jets fan, I need to get him suspended for 2013 for some scandal, and then he can return in 2014 with Tedy Bridgewater. Hmn, bounties might get him fired. I better think about what will work.

Anyone got Roger Goodell's phone number?

34
by JimZipCode :: Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:53am

If Ryan gets fired next year, how hot a commodity would he be as a head coach? My sense is that other teams would not be knocking down doors to give him another head coaching gig.

As a Ravens fan, I would like to see him return to Baltimore as DC for life, their answer to Dick Lebeau.

36
by Nathan :: Mon, 04/22/2013 - 1:20pm

As a Pats fan, I would love to see Dean Pees shipped out of the conference.

47
by JimZipCode :: Tue, 04/23/2013 - 9:59am

Really! Is Pees that good? It's tough to evaluate, as a Ravens fan.

Last year's was the worst Ravens D since the 90s. Pathetic, embarrassing. Was that just injuries? They recovered some late in the year; and when the old guys all got together for the postseason they were able to make just enough plays – which was awesome – but the whole thing did not really engender confidence that they'll be good again.

I liked Pees' resume when he got to Baltimore; but wondered why he left New England. Did Belichick have enough of him? It looked like a case could be made that Pees' Ds in New England got worse as time went on.

If Pees really is excellent, I would like to hear more about it.

51
by Nathan :: Tue, 04/23/2013 - 3:57pm

My comment has more to do with New England's perceived inability to put points on the board against Baltimore since Pees joined the Ravens (26 ppg from 2004-2009 vs 20.6 ppg from 2010-13 despite featuring a much better offense from 2007 on) and less to do with Baltimore's defense as a whole.

The narrative (and I was poking fun of it a little since the sample size is so small) is that since Pees went up against Brady so much in practice from 04-09 he has an advantage in knowing how to defend him).

53
by Jerry :: Tue, 04/23/2013 - 6:42pm

Let's not gloss over the phrase "Pees' Ds".

38
by Dean :: Mon, 04/22/2013 - 1:53pm

IF he is fired, he'd be exactly the sort of coach I would look to hire.

If you look at Super Bowl winning coaches over the last 15 years, you find 10 coaches who fit into two profiles. One profile is the "bright young coordinator." These are guys who have never been head coaches on any level before getting the NFL job.

But the other half are all guys on their second job. None on their 3rd or more. These are all guys who had something or someone holding them back the first time around, and in most cases experienced some level of success shy of the Super Bowl. Belichick. Coughlan. Shanahan. Dungy. Gruden.

No, Ryan hasn't won in New York. But will the next guy be any different? Is anybody going to win a Super Bowl with that ownership?

You might not like his style, and that's your perogative, but if the Jets fire him, I'd be surprised if he doesn't get a second job.

43
by Mr Shush :: Mon, 04/22/2013 - 3:00pm

I wouldn't be at all surprised if he didn't get one immediately. But I'd be staggered if he didn't get another chance at some point, and I agree that he should.

45
by jonnyblazin :: Mon, 04/22/2013 - 7:48pm

I don't know, it seems like Rex is a lot like his dad. Whatever team he coaches, the offense is going to eventually go down the toilet. There's a reason he was on Baltimore's coaching staff for years and when they fired Billick, the FO said no thanks to Rex. I don't know if he has the organizational skills to lead a team. Sure he can coach up a defense, but I'm guessing there's a lot more to coaching than X's and O's and motivation.

52
by Noah of Arkadia :: Tue, 04/23/2013 - 4:04pm

Good points. If he doesn't bring anything to the team other than a great defense, shouldn't he be the DC? That idiocy of predicting a Super Bowl every year, the toe scandal, fighting with fans at the Heat game... I'm not sure this guy is a good leader. A heck of a sargent, but likely not a general.

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FO posters are a peacock. You got to let us fly!

54
by Mr Shush :: Wed, 04/24/2013 - 4:29am

All we really know about Ryan and offense is that he can't make a good one with Mark Sanchez at QB. Gary Kubiak's early Texans teams were kind of the inverse of Ryan's Jets, and I suspect a similar solution - hiring a really good, experienced OC and giving him a lot of free reign, would have similarly good outcomes. Of course, Kubiak attracts a lot less controversy in PR terms than Ryan.

15
by PabloHoney (not verified) :: Sun, 04/21/2013 - 8:03pm

I don't follow the Bucs very closely, but from a distance this trade & contract (along with the Goldson signing earlier in free agency) sure seems like a classic case of a team overpaying to quickly fix a perceived weakness in order to "win now" (the future be damned) because the coach and/or general manager has no job security. I don't think this strategy has a good track record.

28
by RedDog (not verified) :: Mon, 04/22/2013 - 4:05am

Where exactly are the Bucs selling their future?

The contract doesn't have any signing bonus, so they will only have the cap hit for each year, when they pay the dollars. If they cut him, he is off the books immediately. Not exactly what you say. And the Bucs do have the cap space, and the MUST spend the dollars due to the CBA spending floor.

33
by Revenge of the NURBS (not verified) :: Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:40am

"Where exactly are the Bucs selling their future?"

The draft picks they traded. Particularly the first rounder.

37
by Tino (not verified) :: Mon, 04/22/2013 - 1:40pm

Exactly. With the rookie wage scale, draft picks are more valuable than ever. Getting quality starters on their first contract is how modern NFL teams build. Obviously there are no guarantees in the draft, but 13th gives you a decent shot at finding a difference maker.

Trading away the pick for Revis and then paying him at near top for his position is risky in that it's not a "value" move. At best Revis will be paid commensurate with his performance. At worst, he'll be grossly overpaid and eventually cut.

42
by MilkmanDanimal :: Mon, 04/22/2013 - 2:38pm

The thing is, this is not by most appearances a stellar draft, and it seems likely that anybody Tampa would get at #13 would be a depth guy. You either get a DT to help McCoy, DEs to provide depth behind Clayborn and Bowers, a WR for the #3 slot, or you overdraft a corner. This isn't like having a top six pick in the 2012 draft where there were a number of clear blue-chippers; this is a draft full of players that don't really meet a shining need for Tampa. Outside of corner, 2nd DT, and maybe RT, I'm absolutely OK with every single starter the Bucs are fielding this year. The team is talented, but thin, and, given a choice between drafting a depth guy at #13 or rolling the dice to shore up one of the singly most screaming need spots on any roster in the entire league, I don't really have an issue with this.

Tampa had to have corner help, and the odds of finding somebody at #13 who would help in any way similar to Revis are, to put it mildly, extremely slim. As for the cost, Tampa literally has to spend a pile of money this year in order to meet the salary floor, and the fact this deal is going to cost the billionaires whose team I root for a chunk of money doesn't bother me. Are the possible cap consequences next year? Sure, but the team currently has loads of space next year as well. I would be a bit shocked if Revis is still on the roster in 2015 at this salary, but if you're telling me I can have two years of potentially elite CB play for a mid-rounder in a weak draft? Yeah, I can live with that.

44
by Bruiser (not verified) :: Mon, 04/22/2013 - 7:41pm

It doesn't matter if the draft appears good or not. Even less if the #13 slot compares unfavourably to last year's top 6.

1st round picks are cheap and controllable now. Every draft has great guys drafted in the 2nd round and below.

Worst case, Revis costs 16m per year, but is held onto for too long (given the draft pick investment in him), sapping the team of additional money. Best case, he performs well and holds out for financial security or even higher pay.

For the money Revis is getting, the Bucs could have snagged 2 of the top CBs on the market this year and used that 1st on something else.

17
by MilkmanDanimal :: Sun, 04/21/2013 - 8:45pm

I'm leery at best as a Bucs fan, but I'm at least vaguely heartened by the fact that the price really wasn't that high in terms of picks, and it being effectively a series of team-option one-year deals means it really doesn't hose their cap flexibility in the coming years. Sure, $16 million is a huge load, but Tampa has the cap space this year quite easily, and we'll see how it goes in future years.

I still think Tampa overpaid simply from the standpoint that the Jets were really going to have to resolve this situation at some point; Revis seemed to have made it clear he wasn't going to play or wasn't going to be happy about it at all, and that was going to utterly gut the Jets. That being said, a first plus a likely third next year is less than expected, so I guess I'm not screaming too loudly.

Of course, this now means Thursday night is utterly no fun at all for me.

20
by MehlLageman56 (not verified) :: Sun, 04/21/2013 - 9:38pm

Revis could have put up a big stink, but he would have had to show up to camp, or else his contract would have been extended something like three years. He didn't have as much leverage as people thought. That said, as a Jets fan, I think the entire 2013 season is utterly no fun for me.

48
by Thunderbolt of ... :: Tue, 04/23/2013 - 10:34am

That three-year extension provision didn't provide the Jets with much leverage. If Revis decided that his contract was unfair enough to warrant holding out for a new one, then he would certainly keep holding out until that three-year provision was scrapped. If anything, that would just force Revis to fully commit to a holdout rather than coming back with his tail between his legs.

21
by MehlLageman56 (not verified) :: Sun, 04/21/2013 - 9:39pm

The main disappointment for me is that the Jets did not bring in a bunch of picks, only two, for a hall of fame cornerback. The Jets could have waited until the rehab was along farther, and possibly gotten a lot more. But they decided getting a first round pick this year was more important than getting a bunch of picks in 2014. As a Jets fan, I'm pretty disappointed.
The only thing I have to hang some hope on is a similar situation with the Patriots and Curtis Martin; the Jets stole the running back from their rivals, and gave up a couple of picks (I think both were first rounders). That was in 1998. Both picks flamed out for the Pats, but they won in 2001 anyway.

25
by herewegobrowniesherewego (not verified) :: Sun, 04/21/2013 - 10:30pm

To hear a lot of Browns fans talk, you guys dodged a serious bullet by missing out on Tom Heckert, though.

He got some young talent but he has two trades on his recent resume that are worse than this: the trade-up for Hardesty, and basically Kamerion Wimbley for Colt McCoy (who later became a slight move-up from a high 6th to a low 5th + a low 7th.)

40
by MehlLageman56 (not verified) :: Mon, 04/22/2013 - 2:26pm

My issues with the Jets right now is the owner, not the GM. I have the bad feeling Woody Johnson is forcing moves for pr or personal reasons, the Tebow trade and the Revis trade. Under Johnson the Jets have a history of trading up in the draft. I'm not sure if I lay all of the trading up at the feet of Terry Bradway and Mike Tannenbaum, or if Johnson was pushing them into it. They still have been competitive under Johnson, but he inherited people set up by Parcells. I think Idzik, and Ryan for that matter, can be successful if Johnson just leaves them alone to do what they should do.

23
by are-tee :: Sun, 04/21/2013 - 10:21pm

If I'm not mistaken, a player's entire salary for the year becomes guaranteed if he's on the roster for weeks 1 and 2 (or 1 thru 3, I don't remember). So for all intents and purposes, Revis is getting $16 million of guaranteed money.

27
by cisforcookie (not verified) :: Sun, 04/21/2013 - 10:49pm

isn't that a once-in-a-career option?

30
by usctrojan11 (not verified) :: Mon, 04/22/2013 - 7:52am

yes, and 1*16M=16M :)

49
by Thunderbolt of ... :: Tue, 04/23/2013 - 10:36am

Even if his salary weren't officially guaranteed after week 1, there is zero chance that the Bucs would cut Revis at any point next season (or in the 2014 season, most likely) after spending a first round pick on him. He'd have to set fire to team headquarters or something for them to cut bait that early.

50
by dryheat :: Tue, 04/23/2013 - 3:53pm

Being cut for setting fire to team headquarters is grounds for an unlawful termination grievance, as it is unrelated to performance.

He'd probably have to lie down on the field and take a nap while WRs were running patterns around him.

32
by someguy (not verified) :: Mon, 04/22/2013 - 9:58am

As Jet fan, I hate this. I would have been happier if they overpaid for Revis and fired Sanchez. Financial interests be damned! At least I would feel like there is some sense of justice in the organization. Play well, and get rewarded; Don't, and get lost.