Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

18 Nov 2013

Week 11 Injury Aftermath

compiled by Andrew Potter

49ers Guard Mike Iupati -- Knee
49ers Cornerback Tarell Brown -- Ribs

Having started the same offensive linemen in every game since Week 1 of 2012, the 49ers are likely to miss guard Mike Iupati for several weeks with an aggravation of a MCL injury sustained in Week 10. The severity of the injury has not yet been confirmed, but any missed time will be a blow to a struggling line which currently ranks 26th by Adjusted Line Yards and 22nd by Adjusted Sack Rate. Tarell Brown also left Sunday's game with a rib injury and did not return; no update is yet available on Brown.

Bears Defensive Tackle Stephen Paea -- Toe

The most likely cause of Stephen Paea's departure from Sunday's game is an aggravation or recurrence of his turf toe injury. Turf toe sounds milder than it is: a sprain of the ligaments around the big toe, the injury limits movement and power and can be extremely painful. As with other ligament sprains, it won't get any better unless it's able to be properly rested and rehabilitated; wrestling other 300-pound human beings isn't usually part of the treatment plan. Given the number of defensive tackles the Bears have already lost this season, however, they may have no option but to ask Paea to play through the inevitable pain.

Broncos Wide Receiver Wes Welker -- Concussion
Broncos Safety Rahim Moore -- Leg

The Denver Post today reports that Rahim Moore is expected to miss several weeks with a unspecified serious lower leg injury. Mike Adams replaced Moore on Sunday night, and would likely start in his stead. Wes Welker, eighth-ranked wide receiver in the league by DYAR, suffered a concussion on Sunday night and must complete the league's concussion protocol, which places his status in doubt for next week's game against the Patriots. A majority of reported concussions don't cause the player to miss any time, but the nature of the injury means the player's status is seldom clear this early in the week. Finally, Julius Thomas left Sunday's game briefly with a knee injury and will reportedly have that knee scanned today. He is not expected to miss any time.

Jaguars Wide Receiver Mike Brown -- Shoulder

The sole Jaguars receiver with a positive DVOA per the current wide receiver statistics page, Mike Brown reportedly suffered an AC joint sprain against Arizona. Cardinals receiver Michael Floyd suffered a similar injury last week, played through his sprain on Sunday, and had a big game. Whether Brown can play through his depends on its severity; if it's Grade 2 or worse, he'll probably miss a couple of weeks.

Lions Running Back Joique Bell -- Ankle

Joique Bell is considered day-to-day with reported tendonitis, having apparently been battling the problem for several weeks. His 9.6% DVOA would rank tenth if he had enough attempts to qualify, and he has been part of an effective tandem with Reggie Bush for the Lions. He's unlikely to miss games with the problem, but his snap count and effectiveness may be limited while it lingers.

Redskins Wide Receiver Leonard Hankerson -- Knee

Leonard Hankerson will have a MRI scan on his left knee today, which is expected to confirm that he injured his LCL against Philadelphia. The prognosis for that injury would depend on its severity, but it would result in at least a couple of weeks out for all but the mildest of sprains. Defensive end Stephen Bowen and EJ Biggers are also due to have MRI scans on knee injuries; Bowen's is reportedly a cartilage injury, while Biggers may have torn the meniscus in his right knee. Also, tight end Jordan Reed left the game with a concussion and will have to complete the concussion protocol before returning.

Saints Cornerback Jabari Greer -- Knee (IR)

Carted off with his left leg in a fracture splint, Jabari Greer is expected to miss the rest of the season with a multiple ligament knee injury -- at the very least a LCL tear, but with injuries to both the ACL and PCL also likely. Sean Payton confirmed this afternoon that it was a significant injury, but stated that specific details will not be available until tomorrow. A valuable component of the fifth-ranked DVOA pass defense, the question mark for Greer isn't whether he'll return this season -- all signs point toward him being on injured reserve by tomorrow night -- but whether, at 31 and expected to require knee surgery, he'll ever play at this level again.

Posted by: Rivers McCown on 18 Nov 2013

13 comments, Last at 19 Jan 2014, 10:02am by louis vuitton

Comments

1
by Melakion :: Mon, 11/18/2013 - 7:51pm

Vikings cornerback Josh Robinson will miss the next 4-6 weeks with a fractured sternum, coach Leslie Frazier said on Monday.

2
by akn :: Mon, 11/18/2013 - 9:48pm

A majority of reported concussions don't cause the player to miss any time, but the nature of the injury means the player's status is seldom clear this early in the week.

I'd like to know where you got this from. The majority (~85%) of concussions are 7-10 day injuries. Last year, the average return time for NFL players returning from concussion was 16 days.

4
by Andrew Potter :: Tue, 11/19/2013 - 12:38pm

Just a quick note to say your query isn't being ignored, I've simply been too busy to reply with satisfactory detail. I'm not getting my information from anywhere other than the NFL injury reports and the following week's game logs. I'll try to provide a more detailed reply either very late tonight or early tomorrow GMT, though I apologise in advance if I miss that target as I've currently only slept five hours since Sunday.

6
by akn :: Tue, 11/19/2013 - 11:58pm

No rush, no apology needed. I'm just a random on the board, no need for extensive explanations, prompt or otherwise. I was just curious.

8
by Andrew Potter :: Wed, 11/20/2013 - 4:01pm

Okay, here's a summary of the data I have for Weeks 1 to 10. All of this comes from the official NFL injury reports and inactive lists, which are available on the league website.

Two of the four players newly diagnosed with concussions following Week 1's games played in Week 2.

Four of the seven players newly diagnosed with concussions following Week 2's games played in Week 3. One of the three who did not play was injured during a midweek practice (D.J. Fluker of San Diego).

Two of the six players newly diagnosed with concussions following Week 3's games played in Week 4's weekend games. A seventh missed Thursday Night Football (Raymond Ventrone of San Francisco)

Six of the ten players newly diagnosed with concussions following Week 4's games played in Week 5.

Six of the eight players newly diagnosed with concussions following Week 5's games played in Week 6.

Six of the nine players newly diagnosed with concussions following Week 6's games played in Week 7.

One of the five players newly diagnosed with concussions following Week 7's games played in Week 8.

Two of the four players newly diagnosed with concussions following Week 8's games played in Week 9.

Six of the nine players newly diagnosed with concussions following Week 9's games played in Week 10.

In total, assuming my data to be complete and my math to be correct (neither of which is guaranteed), 35 of the 57 players diagnosed with concussions between Week 1 and Week 10 played the following weekend. One further player missed his team's Thursday game following a weekend concussion.

I can provide a full list of players by week if you're interested to that extent.

10
by DisplacedPackerFan :: Wed, 11/20/2013 - 6:27pm

My check on your numbers is showing 35 of 62 (56%) not 57 played the following week. Looks like you missed adding in the total reports from week 7.

11
by Andrew Potter :: Thu, 11/21/2013 - 3:34am

Thanks for checking. I've also noticed that the official injury report didn't include Ike Taylor, who left a game with a concussion a couple of weeks ago. From that, I infer that there may be one or two others who aren't in my numbers. Additionally, I didn't account for byes at all which might skew the numbers by one or two. Still, I'm reasonably confident that the reported figure's in the region of 55-60%.

12
by akn :: Fri, 11/22/2013 - 7:40pm

Thanks for that very thorough analysis.

The 16 days number comes from the independent expert hired by the NFLPA. I don't know if that was a mean or median, or if outliers like retirement were taken into account, but the same expert (presumably using the same methodology) said the average number of days missed was as follows for selected years:

2004 4.8
2005 4.0
2006 4.1
2010 10.9
2011 12
2012 16

9
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Wed, 11/20/2013 - 4:14pm

Be aware you're mixing mean and median. One guy who retired after a concussion washes out a lot of one-week returners.

3
by tunesmith :: Tue, 11/19/2013 - 5:29am

Rahim Moore's injury is a weird one. Compartmentalized something-or-other. It stumped the Broncos medical staff on Sunday. It's something that if it isn't caught/treated quickly, it can lead to amputation or become life-threatening. Moore called the trainer in the middle of the night Sunday and was taken into emergency surgery Monday morning.

5
by Andrew Potter :: Tue, 11/19/2013 - 12:45pm

Lateral compartment syndrome. They weren't exaggerating when they said it was serious.

7
by akn :: Wed, 11/20/2013 - 12:04am

Very serious business. Swelling/bruising is trapped within a part of the limb, compromising blood supply, putting the limb in jeopardy. Sometimes requires an emergency fasciotomy to treat, which has to be one of the most painful procedures anyone will ever have to endure (literally slicing the limb open).

13
by louis vuitton (not verified) :: Sun, 01/19/2014 - 10:02am

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