Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

31 Aug 2017

FOA 2017 MEDIA: SB Nation (FINAL UPDATE)

Once again this year, we've worked with SB Nation to answer questions about Football Outsiders Almanac 2017 and the upcoming NFL season. It looks like this year we've gotten all 32 team blogs, and we'll be posting those links here as they go up.

Tracking this by date turned into a big mess, so we re-organized all the links by team.

AFC EAST

AFC NORTH

AFC SOUTH

AFC WEST

  • Denver (Scott Kacsmar)
  • Kansas City (Scott Kacsmar)
  • Los Angeles Chargers (Scott Kacsmar)
  • Oakland (Um, we got questions from Silver & Black Pride, and Scott Kacsmar answered them, but apparently they still haven't been published yet.)

NFC EAST

NFC NORTH

NFC SOUTH

NFC WEST

Posted by: The Outsiders on 31 Aug 2017

4 comments, Last at 28 Aug 2017, 3:32pm by roguerouge

Comments

1
by PaddyPat :: Wed, 08/16/2017 - 11:36am

Okay, so in the Seattle commentary, Aaron answers this question about whether designing rosters and game plans with the aim of maximizing DVOA would maximize wins and championships, and Aaron says that it would be hard to know how to do that. (Later in the commentary, Schatz makes some helpful observations about regression and understanding the stability of offense vs. defense over time, etc.)

However, my immediate thought was, as underscored by the high rankings of Reid's Eagles year after year, we know that DVOA greatly prizes West Coast Offense style efficiency--moving the chains with steady small gains vs. big plays and more and boom-and-bust approaches. Over the years, one might even argue therefore that DVOA has had a slight bias in favor of a certain of strategic approach to the game. With this in mind, assuredly it would be possible to build a team and a set of weekly game-plans aimed at maximizing DVOA. Would it maximize wins and championships seems like a more complicated question to answer...

4
by roguerouge :: Mon, 08/28/2017 - 3:32pm

True. For one thing, if you were facing a team better than you, you'd adopt more aggressive boom and bust tactics, as variance is your friend when you're an underdog.

2
by ChrisLong :: Wed, 08/16/2017 - 1:00pm

You could certainly build a team that maximizes efficiency, I.e., DVOA. And that would give you, in my opinion, the best chance at winning any individual game and winning the Super Bowl in each season. But it certainly wouldn't guarantee those things. There are too many random occurrences, too many injuries, and the randomness overall of life.

The greatest football team ever might, on average, have an 80% probability of winning each game (some games higher or lower of course). But that still gives the underdog a 20% shot at winning, and in the playoffs if you lose you go home. A team with an 80% chance of winning each of three games only wins all three 51.2% of the time. So you build the team to maximize winning probability as best you can, and then you roll the dice and see if you comeback out a winner. Playing for home runs and big plays produces memorable highlights, but in the long term is a less effective strategy if that's all you have. The best teams are both efficient and produce big plays.

3
by MarkV :: Fri, 08/25/2017 - 5:01pm

the raiders interview almost reaches Jax15 territory