Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

11 Sep 2017

Monday Morning Digest: Great Defenses, Indefensible Quarterbacks

Hey folks! It's me, Mike Tanier with an important message: don't trust anyone who tells you that Colin Kaepernick is unemployed for "football reasons." Watch the Colts, Jets, Texans and other teams, and trust your eyes instead.

Posted by: MikeTanier on 11 Sep 2017

30 comments, Last at 18 Sep 2017, 2:01am by Alexander

Comments

1
by agauntpanda :: Mon, 09/11/2017 - 12:51pm

Link is to an interview with Beth Mowins.

2
by Jim C. :: Mon, 09/11/2017 - 1:19pm
3
by zlionsfan :: Mon, 09/11/2017 - 1:40pm

looked about as good as he did against the Lions in the preseason opener, when it seemed obvious to pretty much everyone in attendance that if the Colts had an NFL-capable QB to back up Luck, that person had yet to be acquired. (Morris seemed the most reasonable of the three at the time ... so naturally he's the one guy on neither the 53-man nor the practice squad.)

5
by The Ninjalectual :: Mon, 09/11/2017 - 2:24pm

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2732509-monday-morning-digest-great-d... if you need a direct link. Googling "mike tanier" works well too, and takes you to his archive

4
by The Ninjalectual :: Mon, 09/11/2017 - 2:23pm

I am pissed--PISSED--that the Broncos signed the Oeweiler disaster instead of Kaepernick. You're a coward, John Elway. And you stink at QB evaluation: Ose was never worth a 2nd round pick, and Paxton L. was never worth a first. Good job getting Siemian in the 7th though I guess, or was that Kubiak?

6
by mehllageman56 :: Mon, 09/11/2017 - 2:35pm

Kaepernick makes more sense for a team with playoff hopes like Indy or Denver than teams in next year's quarterback sweepstakes like the Jets and Niners. Look on the bright side; Elway didn't pick Hackenberg in the second round. At least he's not as bad at choosing quarterbacks as the Houston brass or the guy who came out of there, Mike MacCagnan.

11
by Dennis :: Mon, 09/11/2017 - 9:33pm

Elway took Osweiler in the second and Lynch in the first (after trading up). That's worse than taking Hackenberg in the second (which was a horrendous pick).

8
by ChrisS :: Mon, 09/11/2017 - 3:46pm

I guess the unknown with Kaepernick is what sort of contract he wants and whether it will fit into a team's cap. The upside with Osweiler is that he is cheap so if you get anything positive (however unlikely) from him it is a huge win.

9
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Mon, 09/11/2017 - 7:05pm

Story goes Broncos reached out, and Kaep turned them down. Take it for what it is.

Not sure where Kaep's best fit is, really.

NYJ don't actually want to win.
Goff was taken over by a pod person who was better at football
Jacksonville is still trying out the Bortles thing and taking one last shot with a pricey bauble.
Denver and Miami hired retreads who already know the offense to cover for injuries/be a backup.
Kaep burned that bridge in San Fran and Baltimore.
Cleveland and Houston are currently starting Kaep-ish rookies, and probably don't need a $10M malcontent to screw with the new guys. Houston would have been a much better option a couple of weeks ago.

Kaep made more sense than Brisset in Indy, but maybe they can't afford him.

I still liked the idea of Kaep as Roethlisberger's backup. You know he's going to get hurt, and Pittsburgh needs more total QB letters.

12
by Eddo :: Mon, 09/11/2017 - 10:55pm

How did Kaep burn bridges in SF and Baltimore? SF cut him rather than pay him, but there wasn't any real animosity behind it. And what did Kaep do regarding Baltimore? And where do you get that he's a "malcontent"?

16
by Eddo :: Tue, 09/12/2017 - 12:28pm

Accepting that as fact (which I don't necessarily; it seems Lewis is just acting as a mouthpiece for the organization), how is that Kaepernick "burning bridges"?

One, it's not him doing it. Two, "burning bridges" is when, after someone has rejected you, you badmouth them or treat them really poorly. Has Kaepernick criticized the Ravens since they declined to sign him?

14
by andrew :: Tue, 09/12/2017 - 10:18am

didn't he opt out of SF? I don't recall him being cut... maybe they wouldn't have played him but he would have had a guaranteed salary this year from them if he hadn't exercised his option to leave...

If that was him wanting out, fine. If that was his agent advising him....

15
by ChrisS :: Tue, 09/12/2017 - 11:26am

I think he opted out because they were going to cut him, presumably to give himself a head start at his next team.

17
by bravehoptoad :: Tue, 09/12/2017 - 1:04pm

Do you have a source for that, Kaepernick turning down the Broncos? We get a lot of Kaepernick coverage over in 49er land, and I didn't hear about that. I'd be shocked if that were the case. If you have a link please share.

18
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 09/12/2017 - 1:54pm

http://www.denverpost.com/2016/08/17/colin-kaepernick-denver-broncos-san...

They tried to arrange a trade last year, but he wouldn't accept a pay cut.

I don't think Denver's offering $10M this year, either, especially given Osweiler got $800k.

22
by PoPZ53 :: Wed, 09/13/2017 - 1:49am

Well, Osweiler was Familiar with Denver's offense. At least 10 teams during the off season could have used a QB. They all chose to go in another direction and we all know why. Though it may not be a big deal for you or me, It all comes down to the ole mighty dollar. Bringing in a circus show like Colin Kaepernick is what Owners and GMs around the league are trying to avoid. Many many Americans would boycott any team that brought him in. Why? The National Anthem. Not because everyone is a racist, not because they also feel the same way as Kaepernick, but because they believe in that Flag and everything it STANDS for...(see that play on words?)

Our Flag has nothing to do with the injustice by police officers towards minorities and Majorities too. Remember my friend, They pick on White people also. But of course, Cops beating up, stopping us for 0 reasons and killing unarmed white people just doesn't sell newspapers nor does it influence clicking on a URL. All LIVES MATTER, but the National Anthem and our Flag has nothing to do with it. Thanks to 9-11, cops are now allowed to do whatever they please to, to anyone at any time. That is what Kaepernick should be protesting, not disrespecting our Flag. Kaepernick turned it into a race thing( even though he is mixed white/black and was raised by the white side of his family.

The movement should have been named " Lives matter" It could have been protested by every American, and could have been done outside of every single police dept and or city halls. But no, it had to be turned into a police vs Minorities vs the national anthem and American flag. At a damn football game nevertheless. This is why Colin Kaepernick can't find a job in the NFL. Not because he is Black, not because what he is protesting, Over 85% of Americans agree that the police are out of hand since 9-11, meaning, if Kaepernick did this a different way, Million upon Millions of Americans would stand right behind him. So, No tears for Kaepernick, can't feel sorry for a guy that went about his protest the wrong way.

23
by Guest789 :: Wed, 09/13/2017 - 11:37am

This was... something.

27
by DrunkenOne :: Fri, 09/15/2017 - 9:44am

Welp, that's one of the dumbest things I've read recently, and I read breitbart comments

7
by mehllageman56 :: Mon, 09/11/2017 - 2:38pm

Another thing no one seems to have noticed yet; Kaepernick lying around unsigned gave Belichick the option to send Brissett to Indy. If the worst happens, and Brady and Garroppolo get hurt, he'll just sign Colin. He probably already has a game plan ready for the guy.

19
by Sixknots :: Tue, 09/12/2017 - 3:41pm

It could happen. But can you imagine the awful story lines and articles we'd subjected to if Kaepernick was labeled a patriot.

26
by Bowl Game Anomaly :: Thu, 09/14/2017 - 9:45am

God I hope this happens, just for the inevitable headlines.

10
by TomC :: Mon, 09/11/2017 - 8:55pm

"The Bears will be a tough out all season. But still an out."

Perfect.

20
by Alexander :: Tue, 09/12/2017 - 5:43pm

The Kaepernick thing is such a farce. There are two types of Quarterbacks in the NFL: Starters & Backups. Backups, generally, should make no noise and be capable of stepping into the shoes of an injured starter for 2 weeks (if he's out any longer your season is over anyways, so it doesn't matter). Josh McCown is a perfect backup. The offense should not have to adjust to a backup. Kaepernick is, thus, unqualified to be a backup.

Among starters, there are only a few categories of starters:

1. Good veterans. This category goes from Rodgers to Big Ben to Stafford. They are good enough.

2. Young guns. These are potential plays.

3. Veterans that FANS HATE AND WANT TO GET RID OF. This if the Eli Mannings, Bradfords, Hoyer, Cutler (once the Dolphins fans get to know him). These are stopgaps that you only have because your management is afraid of the unknown and/or dead money.

Guess what, Kaep would instantly be in group #3 when you signed him! You don't want a QB is group 3. Its better to just experiment with 4th rounders to see if you uncovered a gem. Almost no one ever picks up a QB they know is going to be in group 3 unless they think they are a Super Bowl contender even with bad QB play. Name me such a team. You can't.

21
by t.d. :: Wed, 09/13/2017 - 12:41am

It would surprise me a lot if Viking fans hate Bradford. He was as good as could reasonably expected behind that line last year. I wanted Kaep in Jax (Bortles is painful to watch, and Fournettte would be even better imo with an elite running qb, though that's Bortles one strength), and Khan, the owner, would go for it, but Coughlin never would do it

24
by Football Michae... :: Wed, 09/13/2017 - 12:41pm

The people who hate the quarterbacks in group 3 - I'm specifically talking about Eli, Bradford, Dalton, Flacco, etc. - don't get that there's a difference between average/below-average quarterbacking and, like, Scott Tolzien. They do not get that there are in betweens. They have not seen Matt McGloin vs. Tom Savage playoff games. They are blissfully ignorant.

Kaepernick is clearly an average to below-average quarterback. On a team like the Texans, Jags, or Colts and a few others average to below-average (making expected plays, not turning over the ball) = playoffs. In the case of the Colts Pagano is as good as gone because his quarterbacking options are Tolzien (?) and an ex-Patriots QB (we know how that works out).

25
by Alexander :: Wed, 09/13/2017 - 7:10pm

Actually, its the opposite. Fans know the difference between Eli, Flacco, Dalton, etc and Brady/Rodgers, whereas front offices seemingly do not (because they think going between 6-10 and 10-6 with a 30% chance for a round 1 playoff victory will save their job). There are a select few teams (2016 Broncos, maybe this years Texans) that would have a legit shot at a conference title with a good game manager like Dalton or Bradford, but no one has laid out the case that Kaep can be a good game manager.

Teams with Matt McGloin and Tom Savage, are, 90% of the time better off just experimenting with random draft picks like Dak Prescott.

28
by sbond101 :: Sun, 09/17/2017 - 6:41pm

This bears extensive repeating, especially in the world of a cap. Teams are much, much better off with a nobody that they don't have to pay (like Oss was in Denver the first time) then with a marginal QB that their currently trying to pretend is good (e.g. Flacco, Stafford going forward, and the contract I suspect Kaep is going for). Bottom line, if you have a place-holder at QB at least you can spend money to support him so that if you find an effective game manager (like Dalton or Prescott) you give them a chance to win games. If you sign Kaep for $15+ million a year your signing your own competitive death warrant into 5-10 win seasons and hoping you fluke into a couple of perfect drafts to fill all the holes.

I'm of two minds about Kaep still being available, part of me wants to believe that GM's are getting wiser about not writing blank cheques to marginal QB's (the kind that only Aaron Rodgers should ever be offered), but contracts like what Stafford just got make me think GM's are just as stupid as ever and this is about marketing.

30
by Alexander :: Mon, 09/18/2017 - 2:01am

Exactly.

29
by sbond101 :: Sun, 09/17/2017 - 6:43pm

Deleted - Double Post -