Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

05 Feb 2017

Scott Kacsmar's Super Bowl LI Preview

It is a long wait for kickoff on Sunday, so here is another long Super Bowl LI preview where I ultimately go against my preseason pick and pre-postseason pick of the Patriots losing the big game. Hopefully this will be the classic this postseason so badly needs.

Posted by: Scott Kacsmar on 05 Feb 2017

9 comments, Last at 09 Feb 2017, 7:56am by MC2

Comments

1
by Raiderfan :: Sun, 02/05/2017 - 7:00am

Patriot D a fraud and Brady is not near as good as my boy PM. Shocking!

5
by PatsFan :: Sun, 02/05/2017 - 4:47pm

Well, Kacsmar's not anything if not totally predictable, after all.

But as a PIT honk he has to express his bitterness somehow.

2
by Jerry :: Sun, 02/05/2017 - 8:26am

Scott,

New England’s defense ranked 28th in DVOA in Late & Close situations, so if he can get the opportunity, then we know he’s good at delivering in these moments. We also know the Patriots are the best at preventing comebacks, though not quite as good at it away from home.

Are you saying the Pats are bad Late & Close, but still manage to prevent the comeback?

3
by otros :: Sun, 02/05/2017 - 10:39am

I'm reading that as if it is 7+ in the 4th Q, the pats are good, if it's 7- in the last 4 mins pats are SOL.

Do those intersect? Yes, but in his second scenario (My first) it probably won't happen.

4
by Scott Kacsmar :: Sun, 02/05/2017 - 2:40pm

Well that goes for entire 2nd half, within one score, but yeah. Only six 4QC attempts against NE this season, and only Seattle came through. Arizona would have if Catanzaro made the FG.

6
by Jerry :: Mon, 02/06/2017 - 4:29am

Thanks.

7
by RickD :: Wed, 02/08/2017 - 3:28am

Have to wonder if Scott stands by this statement:

"There’s really nothing that Brady could do on Sunday evening to change my opinion on his place in history. He can’t go up or down with this one game."

I guess he didn't anticipate "biggest comeback in Super Bowl history". Still, to not leave the possibility open....?

9
by MC2 :: Thu, 02/09/2017 - 7:56am

I can't speak for Scott, but personally, I wasn't particularly impressed by Brady's performance. He was pretty terrible for basically the first two-thirds of the game (especially considering that he was facing one of the worst defenses in the league). Of course, he was fantastic for the last third of the game, but again, you have to consider the quality of the defense he was facing. Overall, I have seen him play many better games, so why would this one make me move him up on my all-time list?

By the way, this is not some anti-Brady or anti-Patriot thing. I have made the same points when people praise Eli for his many 4th quarter comebacks. The fact is that the Giants often were behind because Manning didn't play well enough in the first 3 quarters, and I think the same is true of Brady in this year's Super Bowl. I would actually give more credit to the Patriots' defense, which held the highest scoring offense in the league to just 14 points in the 1st half, and just 7 in the 2nd half.

8
by saraedward :: Wed, 02/08/2017 - 6:10am

good