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29 Sep 2008
Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
Lehigh Valley Express-Times writer Nick Fierro was unimpressed by Andy Reid's performance on Sunday, stating that the team's performance against the Bears was, "...yet another case was made for the argument that head coach Andy Reid will never lead this team to the promised land."
Fierro pushes some of the blame for the team's loss on the players -- singling out DeSean Jackson for his muffed punt and incorrectly-run route, and giving Kyle Orton credit for his touchdown pass to Devin Hester, but where the criticism of Reid comes in is, strangely, the Eagles' inability to run the ball in from the 1-yard line late in the game.
Fierro writes:
But the failure to punch it in from the 1-yard line late in the game had Reid's faulty fingerprints all over it. This is where the Eagles had a chance to overcome all the mistakes they made earlier and beat an inferior team they're supposed to beat no matter what. It's where true championship teams come through nine out of 10 times, a ratio Reid seems doomed to never achieve unless he never makes another mistake for the rest of his career and coaches until he's something like Joe Paterno's age.
His explanation for not putting the ball in quarterback Donovan McNabb's hands -- he didn't want to put McNabb, who already was hurting from a chest contusion suffered the week before, at further risk -- just didn't cut it.
The fact is that football is an extremely simple game when you have fourth-and-goal at the 1 with a 6-foot-2 Division I basketball player under center and an offensive line that is considered by every non-partisan observer in the game to be among the league's best in front of him.
Believe it or not, I don't actually have a Google alert set up for the words "true championship team", but I probably should. Either way, that sort of statement is just downright silly. From 1999 through 2007, the years in which Reid has been a head coach, runs on the one-yard line resulted in either a touchdown or a first down 55.9 percent of the time. There's not a single team since 1999 -- not even one -- that ran the ball from the 1-yard line ten or more times in a given season and converted 90 percent of the time. The closest team, in 2005, converted 10 out of 12 attempts for an 83.3 percent conversion percentage. That's also the franchise which, since Andy Reid became the Eagles' head coach in 1999, has had the highest percentage of successful rushing conversions from the 1.
It's the Atlanta Falcons.
The Falcons have converted 73.1 percent of their attempts from the 1 since 1999; in all fairness, the Patriots are second, having converted 72.6 percent of their attempts. The Eagles sit a lowly...fourth, at 68.3 percent.
Among the worst teams in the league include the Colts (42.9%), Giants (45.1%), and Ravens (50%); all have won championships in the past decade. Furthermore, if we just take the performance of the nine Super Bowl winners over the timeframe and analyze their performance from the 1 in the year(s) they won, those teams were 39-of-69, which calculates out to 56.5 percent, exactly 0.6 percent above the league average. In other words, suggesting that championship teams have a knack for punching it in inside the 1, or that Andy Reid is unable to do so, is a spurious claim at best.
As for the suggestion of using McNabb as opposed to Correll Buckhalter, well, let's check that. As mentioned earlier, the Eagles have a 68.3 percent conversion rate from the 1 since 1999; to be specific, they are 28-of-41. Over that timeframe, McNabb is 6-for-6. Without knowing how hurt McNabb was, using him in that role is ideal.
That extends to the quarterback sneak as a whole. Since 1995, quarterbacks have converted from the 1 an impressive 62 percent of the time; running backs, on the other hand, convert on only 39 percent of their attempts.
In all likelihood, the failure of the Eagles to convert from the 1-yard-line on Sunday wasn't Andy Reid's coaching or Donovan McNabb's "chest contusion"; it was the absence of Shawn Andrews and the presence of an excellent Bears run defense, even without Tommie Harris. Extrapolating it out as a justification that Reid will never lead his team to a championship isn't just unfair to any formation of a coherent argument that the Eagles might need a new coach; it's a flat-out falsehood.
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Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
There's only one team Eagles fans hate more than the Dallas Cowboys, and that team is the Philadelphia Eagles.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
Truer words were never spoken, my friend. There is a strain of Eagles fan that is never so happy as when the Birds are losing and the Cowflops are winning.
"A little celery is always nice after a good pee."
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
I get that this is an opportunity to trot out the goal line stats, but framing it as a response to a nitwit local sportswriter veers a little too close to FireJoeMorgan territory. And besides- if you're going to call out every uselessly negative Philly sports voice we're going to be here for a long time. I think they're still taking "trade McNabb" calls on WIP.
Side note- does this data differentiate between runs from the 1 and runs inside the 1? It seems like most of McNabb's (and other QB's) runs would be of the latter type.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
I'm certain FO gets this data from the official PBP, which doesn't differentiate between 3 inches and a full yard away. And, as a game charter, I'm really not interested in eyeballing just how close a ball listed at the 1 is from the end zone.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
Refuting wild false claims like this one are the stuff this site is founded on. Literally.
[/Redskins homerism]
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
If a single play from the one succeeds, on average, 55.9% of the time, then does it not work out that three consecutive attempts from the one should result in a touchdown 91% of the time (55.9% of the time on the first attempt, 24.7% on the second, and 10.9% on the third), with just 9% failing all three times (44.1% to the third power)?
Further, the 55.9% success rate is for all teams, including average teams and worse than average teams. One would think that good teams succeed more than that on average.
Although on average they are not facing the Bears. And one would have to factor in the chances of plays losing yardage so that the subsequent attempts are not from the one, etc.
I am not sure what the exact odds were of the Eagles scoring a touchdown when having 2nd and goal from the one, or even better 1st and goal from the four, but I bet it was better than 55.9%.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
If a single run on average by any given team vs any given team from the 1 succeeds 55% of the time, the odds of three consecutive runs from the 1 not picking it up would be .45 * .45 * .45 or 9.1%?
As you note, the Bears are not just any given team.
But even if you accept the 55% number... after two runs failed the odds of the third run not getting in were not 9.1%, but still 45%.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
The "failure rate" may be slightly higher than 9.1% because some plays from the 1 lose yardage, something not accounted for by just multiplying the success rate of three successive plays from the 1.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
True.
I am saying that the abnormality is not in failing on 4th and one, but failing to score a TD when having 1st and goal from the 4, or having 2nd and goal from the one.
Of course, the 'abnormality' is probably on order of a 1 in 10 occurrence, which is not exactly rare. The Eagles should have scored, but it is not an unpossible occurrence that they didn't.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
Reid did not throw the ball because he still gets night sweats dreaming about the time Ronde Barber took one to the house in the NFC Championship game. The Bucs are going to the SuperBowl! you heard it here first.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
"The Bucs are going to the SuperBowl! you heard it here first."
Did they get tickets already?
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
SB is played in Tampa this year, they get their tickets comp'd
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
Well, Reid wasn't not the problem.
Just a stunning lack of creativity, running bullheadedly and repeatedly into the teeth of the defense.
Honestly, a QB sneak or some sort of play-action wasn't worth trying once?
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
Reid's problem wasn't the call, it's that he didn't throw the challenge flag. Buckhalter was obviously in.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
Buckhalter was not in. see the Audibles at the line thread commentary about parralax. That said, Reid still should've thrown the flag. The chances of the refs incorrectly overturning that call were much greater than the chances of the eagles stopping the bears offense, getting the ball back, and scoring with no time outs.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
I disagree; up to that point the Bears offense had done absolutely nothing in the 2nd half and you left them at their own one. It took a long run by Forte on 3rd and 4 to get the Bears out of the shadow of their own goal line and let them run the clock down beyond where the Eagles could recover.
There was a reasonable likelihood even of a safety and which would have given the Eagles a chance at a FG for the win after the free kick.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
Goal lines can't cast shadows.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
What about the Bear's defense?
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
What ever happened to the toss sweep from a goaline formation? How about play action to a wide open 2nd or 3rd TE? Hey Andy, remember when you had TE Chad Lewis and Jeff Thomason? Hasn't Dan Klecko caught TD passes on short yardage situations?
The next time Emporer Reid says "We'll be fine." or "I have to do a better job of putting them [the players] in a position to succeed." I'm gonna choke on my hoagie!!!
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
What ever happened to the toss sweep from a goaline formation?
Which wouldn't've worked, considering the LBs and CBs stayed home until it was clear what the play was. Any attempt to run outside never would've worked.
How about play action to a wide open 2nd or 3rd TE?
The slow reaction time of the LBs strongly suggests they were expecting a play-action fake. Reid's playcall was right (although a QB sneak would've been better - especially given that they hadn't done it earlier), and barring Schobel's disaster of a block, it would've worked.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
Yeah this is all "Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda", but don't you make a play call to set up the next play. I like the strategy of play action on the earliest down on goal line situations. It makes the defense have to think the next play and causes hesitation which could make a quick hitting play more effective. Plus a PA rollout with McNabb is most likely a mismatch and gives more offensive options for success.
And barring Schobel's terrible attempt of a block, Buckhalter's lack of reading the play and keeping his head down he missed the opportunity to shift to his left and fall into the endzone.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
Lets see - what were Andy Reid's actual options on this play? We could throw it to our big free agent WR that we acquired in the offseason. Oh, wait. We could hand it to our gamebreaking RB. Oh, wait. We could throw it to our franchise TE. Oh, wait. We could throw it to our #1 WR. Oh, that's right, he's injured, too. At least we have our pro-bowl guard. Oh, wait. So every Bear Defender pretty much as to key on McNabb here - he's the only weapon on the field. Sounds like a good way to get Donovan hurt. Do you want to trust a rookie WR whose head was messed up from fumbling the punt? Do you want to trust in the likes of Jason Avant, Greg Lewis, or Hank Baskett? Maybe hand it to the fullback who picked the wrong hole on 2nd down? Or do you want to go to your servicable veteran RB, who is at least reliable if unspectacular. By process of elimination, this really is the only logical decision. No, it's not creative, and no, it's not going to make sportscenter, but that doesn't mean it was the wrong call. Of course, loudness trumps logic and insults trump insights, so this sort of thinking will never cut through the noise. Too bad. At the end of the day, Reid will be, as usual, criticized for making the right decision.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
Now THIS is what Any Given Sunday should be like, and not just in the FO description, but actually on the ESPN portion. This is ideal for an espn audience that probably would otherwise agree with Fierro's claim. Great read!
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
Come on. If Reid can't trust Jackson, Avant, Lewis, Brown, Baskett, Klecko, Celek, etc. in that situation, then they shouldn't be on the team. To repeatedly try the same play, or a similar one, which has shown little promise of success is absolutely not "the right decision".
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
Nice article. This is 'old school' FO.
Using your figures, what's the probability of scoring on a pass from the one? How does it compare with rushing? How often do teams with 1st-and-goal on the 1 fail to score a TD on the drive? And against defenses with what kind of DVOA?
So many questions....
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
I agree-- great job by Bill. It not only informs, but leads to entertaining discussions.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
You can't criticise Reid for not throwing the red flag - at the end of the game reviews are initiated by the booth, not by a coach's challenge.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
Almost four minutes was left when the fourth down play failed. Reid could have thrown the red flag.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
The run by Buckhalter on 4th down occured at the 3:40 mark, outside of the two minute warning, thus not in the time period that challenges are initiated by the booth.
I agree with the Eagles not challenging.
First, even if he were in (and I am not convinced he was) it was not enough to make it a clear overturn. If there was doubt... and there was, especially given the time frame to view it... they official would have just come out and said "the ruling on the field stands". You can always tell when they don't know, they just say "the ruling on the field stands" instead of "the runner was down at the 1" for example.
I've seen too many cases where it looked clear and they still didn't overturn (e.g., Addai not making it into the end zone, or Gauge not getting a first down this week).
Second... part of the reason Reid ran was the belief that worst case its Chicago ball at the 1. I guess you could say it coudl be fumble returned for a TD, but that's not that likely. A pass would have a greater chance of something screwy.
Given that he was banking on the Chicago ball at the 1 as the worst case theory, then you absolutely want you want all 3 timeouts, so you can come back for one more try afterwards. All the eagles had to do was shut down an offense they had smothered for an entire half. When Forte picked up the first down... that was when they lost the game.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
I'm pretty sure the eagles had 2 TOs left at the time. So even if they stop the bears from getting the first down and they punt at the 2 minute warning, they still have to go ~50 yards for a TD with no time outs. I'm not saying thats impossible or even improbable given their opponent. I just think the chances of that call getting overturned are greater. And I'm a Bears fan, and I don't think the ball actually crossed the plane.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
Let's put blame where blame belongs, and that's on TE Schobel's shoulders for his "LOOK-OUT" block, that allowed Buckhalter to get tackled from the left side and stuffed. If Schoble made that block....or at least slowed the defender that would have been a touchdown.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
McNabb is 6-for-6 on QB sneaks, and overall, the QB sneak works 62% of the time vs. 39% for running backs. Without knowing the status of McNabb's chest, how is not giving the ball to McNabb the right call?
For Andy Reid to turn around and say that he didn't want to give the ball to McNabb, all he's doing is giving ammo to the anti-McNabb crowd who claim that he's too fragile. I WANT to like this team, but its hard to keep defending them against the "fanbase", even if the statistics bear me out. I was in a McNabb vs. Kolb argument in the middle of last week's Steelers game with someone prior to Kolb's interception.
The Eagles need to win a superbowl, or just start playing at a Rams level of suckitude. The fanbase, and especially the logical fans who understand we're watching a good team, can't handle this good-but-not-good-enough type of team we've been getting.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
Yes it was his fault. With 4 minutes to go in the game and the defense holding the Bears to nothing they should have kicked the field goal. Instead they wasted a time out to call a stupid running play. Come on. Kick the ball. Then let the defense hold and you still have 3 times out and the 2:00 warning. Stupid game management.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
The right call was a QB sneak, starting on 2nd down as soon as the Eagles were inside the one yard line. If McNabb was too banged up to run a QB sneak then put in Kolb or Feeley - I mean it's a QB sneak, even if they know it's coming, it's a play that relies on the O-Line to move the pile a few feet, not tricking the defense.
Nevertheless, the 4th and 1 run still works if Schobel doesn't blow his block - so if you must, blame Reid for putting Schobel there instead of an extra OL, or not coaching Schobel well enough, or something like that. But it was a lack of execution that doomed the Eagles on that play.
Also:
-If McNabb is too banged up to run a QB sneak with the game on the line then he really is too fragile to be counted on. What are they saving him for, playing out the string in last place again?
-Not punching it in at the end of the game is not a sign that Andy Reid will have trouble winning a championship, however, this is: having David Akers attempt 47 and 50 yard field goals - meaning Reid has not learned his lesson from 2007. That is more of a concern for the Eagles in 2008 - the head coach thinks he has a different team than he actually has.
-Even given the above, the biggest deterrent to Eagles success with this staff and roster is that it relies on 2 players (McNabb, Westbrook) to account for 99% of the offense, and neither of those 2 players can stay healthy enough to contribute 100% every week.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
Completely disagree on this one. They had first and goal inside the 5 and they didn't let their only superstar on the field (McNabb) have the ball once, obviously not counting handoffs. Instead they handed it to backup RB's into the center of the Bear's defense and got stuffed repeatedly. I can understand the first and second down calls, maybe even the third down call (although I would have called something else), but to run the same thing FOUR times in a row was crazy! They couldn't have tried a pitch or something to get one yard, a play-action, or a McNabb run-pass option rollout. Instead, they just repeated what wasn't working. Awful play calling by Reid and it cost them the game. Here's the play-by-play:
1-4-CHI 4 (5:40) 28-C.Buckhalter right guard to CHI 1 for 3 yards (44-K.Payne).
2-1-CHI 1 (5:03) 29-T.Hunt right tackle to CHI 1 for no gain (44-K.Payne, 30-M.Brown).
3-1-CHI 1 (4:19) 28-C.Buckhalter right guard to CHI 1 for no gain (93-A.Ogunleye).
Timeout #1 by PHI at 03:40.
4-1-CHI 1 (3:40) 28-C.Buckhalter left guard to CHI 1 for no gain (96-A.Brown).
Really, how can you defend Reid here? Basically the same play doesn't work three times. so what does Reid do, he calls it again! Not to be too snarky, but the definition of idiocy is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting to get different results. I think you're missing the forest for the trees here. Reid should take the blame for the goal-line stand as much as anyone.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
Really, how can you defend Reid here? Basically the same play doesn't work three times.
Actually, the first down play worked pretty well. Getting 3 yards on 1st-and-4 is great. All they had to do was repeat their first down performance on fourth down, and they would've won the game.
And really, it's not like the play that actually happened was so obviously doomed. Buckhalter almost got in, and if you look at it from some angles, it even appears as if he did (parallax notwithstanding). The playcall on fourth down wasn't the problem.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
"Basically the same play doesn't work three times."
I wouldn't say that. The first down play was a straight-ahead run (not sure of the technical term) that worked in context (and would be judged a success by FO).
On second down, Payne made an awesome individual effort to stand up Hunt and hold him until Brown came over to help. The second play was also very different in that it was an off tackle play and it looked like Hunt had the option to bounce to the outside.
Third down was the most different play, as it was a leap-over-the-pile play by Buckhalter.
Fourth down was most similar to first down (the play that was successful), but on the other side of the line.
So criticize the play call for what it is, but not because it was the same as the three previous plays. They were not as similar as they appear in the Play-by-Play.
the wasted timeout
What gets my goat is how Reid wasted a time out to *discuss* the fourth-down play. Totally unnecessary, the extra time isn't worth what you give up.
Re: the wasted timeout
I agree, that was a mistake too. If they had saved it, they would have had 40 extra seconds on their last drive. Besides, did you really need to take a timeout to call that play?
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
It was an important decision. But they should have already decided what to do in that situation long before that.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
If this article proves anything, it's that 40% of the time that a writer uses their own estimate of a statistical quantity and states it as fact they will be proven wrong in an embarrassingly obvious way.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
Yes, it was Reid's fault. Look at the replay: the hole was there for the sneak. All McNabb had to do was collect the snap and fall down for the score. Snap, fall, easy TD. If he's too fragile to run the play (which sounds like bs if he played the whole game to that point), then put in Kolb. Or just put Buckhalter under center and have him sneak it.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
"If he's too fragile to run the play (which sounds like bs if he played the whole game to that point), then put in Kolb."
You know, I bet that over the long term, it will be proven to be right to be giving David Carr another chance.
But I really really liked having J-Load around for QB sneaks.
Although he wasn't really sneaking, since he was so big. More like rooting with sufficient force.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
i'm surprised that in these situations more teams don't use a version of the old steelers play, where kordell would step out as if calling to the WR and that would be the signal for a direct snap to the RB. i'm not saying make that you're bread and butter at the goal line, but at the very least worth a try, especially when you've got 2nd and 1.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
Agree with Dales.
Just put your second TE under center and make him push the pile. Or play it Jags style with the qb draw :)
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
This wasn't Reid's fault. The players just didn't execute.
I was looking for the QB sneak myself, but the fact is that the RB should be able to get in from the 1. Bootlegs or pitches are an awful idea. You're bringing the ball back away from the goal line against a fast, aggressive defense. Putting anyone other than a QB under center is a bad idea, because you're just asking for a fumbled snap.
The only reason people can criticize Reid here is that it didn't work. If he had tried some kind of trickery with a play-action pass or a bootleg and that didn't work, people would be railing on him for not just pounding it in with a great OL and an RB who scored from the 1 earlier in the game. If McNabb had tried to sneak and it didn't work, people would be asking why give the ball to your hurting QB.
There simply was nothing wrong with the play call. The Eagles didn't get the TD and stupid fans just want someone to blame. For some reason they think the best target is the winningest coach in team history.
Re: Was Fourth-And-1 Reid's Fault?
Obviously, from the comments, Reid's mistake was not putting Reid in at QB to take the snap and run a sneak behind the blocking of Reid and Reid.
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