Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

12 Jul 2005, 12:20pm by Aaron Schatz

Football Commentary: Overtime Model

C'mon Feel the Math! Our good friend William Krasker is back, using his statistical model to ask the question: Does overtime -- and the presence of a third possible outcome, a tie -- change the optimal strategy for certain situations? The answer: Yes, and it matters more later in the season because teams know how a tie will affect their playoff chances. As an example, Krasker shows how a St. Louis decision to punt in overtime of Week 17 was the wrong decision, even though it would usually be the right decision.

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48 comments, Last at 18 Jul 2005, 11:24pm by Miles

11 Jul 2005, 01:47pm by P. Ryan Wilson

Postseason Repeats Might Hinge on These Guys

Pete Prisco takes a look at twelve players he thinks will play a big part in getting their respective teams to the playoffs this season. He puts New England DT Vince Wilfork first on the list, but I'm not certain that any one player (other than, ahem, Tom Brady) can't be replaced on this team (even Richard Seymour).

In his notes from 'Around the League,' Prisco also discusses the upcoming supplemental draft, the derision with which team scouts refer to the national scouting bureaus, and why the Falcons are giving Peerless Price one more chance to be the go-to guy.

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20 comments, Last at 29 Apr 2006, 7:03pm by Mr Shush

10 Jul 2005, 04:55pm by Aaron Schatz

Cap Cuts vs. Patriots

Lots of websites do a "cap cut all-star team" when they need off-season content, but FOX has done something fun with theirs, comparing the cap cut all-stars to the World Champs position by position and then imagining what a game between the two teams would be like. Two problems: They don't really consider the injury situation with some of the cap cuts like Ty Law and Richie Anderson, and I think the cap cut all-stars would have to make some cap cuts to actually fit under the cap.

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16 comments, Last at 14 Jul 2005, 10:32am by Starshatterer

08 Jul 2005, 10:54am by Aaron Schatz

Jackson Hires Agent of Change

Grady Jackson, long a FO favorite, has hired agent Drew Rosenhaus and is now threatening to hold out of camp because he wants a new contract -- just like his teammate Javon Walker and that other famous Rosenhaus client, Terrell Owens. Now, we're known around here as big supporters of Jackson, even saying that he was deserving of MVP consideration in 2003.

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8 comments, Last at 23 Jul 2005, 3:15pm by DCalla

07 Jul 2005, 11:41am by Michael David Smith

Tim Brown to Retire as a Raider

Tim Brown will sign a ceremonial contract with the Raiders and end his Hall of Fame career today. A few thoughts:

Although receiving numbers have been hugely inflated in recent years, I think Brown definitely belongs in the Hall of Fame. His numbers fall short only of Jerry Rice's, and the quality of the quarterbacks who threw him passes doesn't come close to Jerry Rice's.

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39 comments, Last at 18 Jul 2005, 10:11pm by Vince

06 Jul 2005, 02:14pm by Russell Levine

Steeler Fan Celebrates 'Final Home Game'

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has this (depending on your perspective) amusing/touching/sick story of the funeral service for Steelers fan James Henry Smith, who was laid out lying in a recliner, a pack of cigarettes and a beer by his side, a Steelers blanket across his lap, and Steelers higlights playing on an HDTV nearby.

I've heard of sports-themed weddings, and even attended one at a Mets game a few years back, but never a sports-themed funeral service.

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24 comments, Last at 09 Jul 2005, 2:22pm by Paul

05 Jul 2005, 11:54am by Michael David Smith

Did Little Train Commit Big Fraud?

I always liked Lionel "Little Train" James when he played with the Chargers. I don't like him so much after reading this article. James just lost a lawsuit against the Chiefs over whether they owed him disability payments, as he worked for the Chiefs as an assistant coach before he was diagnosed with acute necrotizing pancreatitis. Here are some details, as reported by Dan Margolies:

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5 comments, Last at 05 Jul 2005, 9:13pm by pcs

05 Jul 2005, 10:00am by P. Ryan Wilson

Replay Specialist, Redskins Part Ways

In theory, hiring a former NFL official to serve as a replay specialist is a good idea. The only problem was that Joe Gibbs would often overrule him. (the Redskins lost five of their first six challenges in 2004) As it stands, only the Miami Dolphins will have a full-time replay official on the payroll next season. (free registration/bugmenot required)

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11 comments, Last at 05 Jul 2005, 8:53pm by Ryan Mc

05 Jul 2005, 09:20am by Aaron Schatz

Hank Stram Dies at 82

We'll never matriculate the ball up and down the field without thinking of you, Hank.

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24 comments, Last at 07 Jul 2005, 11:03am by King Kaufman

04 Jul 2005, 05:53pm by P. Ryan Wilson

Third WR Could Mean Playoffs for These Five

NFL.com's Pat Kirwan makes the argument that adding a viable third WR should give teams like the Texans, Cardinals, Bengals, Lions, and Raiders a real chance to turn things around this season. According to DVOA these teams ranked 14th, 15th, 17th, 20th, and 27th on defense, so that may have something to do with it too. Still, having a healthy Peter Warrick or 6'5" Mike Williams line up in the slot puts a little more pressure on the defense than the fullback trying to catch a pass coming out of the backfield.

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36 comments, Last at 07 Jul 2005, 5:12am by lafcadio