FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
Q: When does Football Outsiders publish new material?
A: In general, this is our schedule during the regular season:
- MONDAY: Audibles at the Line, Confessions of a Football Junkie, Quick Reads (on FOXSports.com).
- TUESDAY: Any Given Sunday (both here and on AOL), DVOA Ratings (FO version).
- WEDNESDAY: Every Play Counts, Scramble for the Ball, Fremeau Efficiency Ratings, Weekly Rundown (on FOXSports.com), DVOA Comments (on AOL).
- THURSDAY: The Week in Quotes, Seventh Day Adventure, Sunday Countdown Stat Notebook (on ESPN.com).
- FRIDAY: Too Deep Zone, MDS Report (on FOXSports.com), MNF feature (on ESPN.com).
Q: Can I find out about new Football Outsiders material with an RSS feed?
A: Yes: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/feed/
Q: I'm new to your site and would like to know if there's any kind of
"Football Outsiders Primer" of basic findings you've uncovered with
research? It would help immensely in understanding what you do.
A: You will find a list of this research in our essay on Football Outsiders basics.
Q: Is there any place I can find the best articles in Football Outsiders
history without combing through the archives?
A: Every year on our birthday, we compile our best articles from the previous
year, and we've put all those links together on one page.
Enjoy.
Q: How on earth does DVOA work? (or DPAR, Adjusted Line Yards, etc.)
A: Most of the advanced statistics are explained on a different page called Methods
to Our Madness. Some shortcuts:
If you have a question about another stat not explained on that page, check
out the Football
Outsiders glossary.
Q: When are the stats updated on the website each week?
A: In general, the stats pages will be updated on Tuesday nights. It can
occasionally be delayed because Aaron does this manually once the DVOA
commentary is finished, unless he's not busy with parenting duties. The
offensive line and defensive line pages are not necessarily updated each week.
Jim Armstrong updates the drive stats separately, on his own schedule.
Q: Why does player X have a higher DVOA, but player Y has higher DPAR? What
does each really mean, and which is more important when evaluating a player?
A: The easiest way to remember this is, DVOA is a rate stat, while DPAR is a
cumulative stat. That is, DVOA aims to show how a player performs on a per play
basis, while DPAR adds up the total contributions for a whole season (or game,
drive, etc.). To compare to standard NFL stats: DVOA is similar to stats
that measure per attempt (yards per carry, completion percentage) while DPAR is
similar to total stats (yards, touchdowns, points).
A high DVOA signifies that when a player is involved in the play, the outcome
is typically good, above league-average expectations. A high DPAR signifies that
a player contributes to his team's success regularly, either through very good
plays or a lot of mediocre ones (for example, giving 250 carries per year to a
league-average running back is better than giving those same carries to someone off the
practice squad). When players have a high DVOA but relatively low DPAR, it
generally means they aren't "involved" in as many plays as their peers (i.e.
slot receivers, backup running backs, Ben Roethlisberger). When players have high DPAR but low DVOA, it generally means they are
involved in a lot of plays, but haven't produced quite as much on each specific
play.
As for which is more important, they really can't be played against each
other like that. Both give insight into a player's contributions, and along with
other stats (like RB Success Rate) can give a good picture of a player's
performance. Remember also that these stats are all dependent on teammates (How
is the line blocking? How good are the quarterback's receivers?), so we can't simply compare
DVOA/DPAR to tell who is "better." These stats are a valuable tool to aid in comparisons, but do not
completely replace observation.
Q: Does DVOA really work?
A: Yes. The goal of DVOA is to balance two things:
- The correlation of the opponent-adjusted statistics from year-to-year,
representing the intrinsic quality of a team irregardless of luck and random
chance, and
- The correlation of the non-opponent-adjusted statistics to wins.
DVOA -- at least, the team version -- does these things better than any other
statistic available. Here are some correlation coefficients to demonstrate:
| Correlation of various stats to wins in
same year, 2000-2005 |
| Stat |
Offense |
Defense |
Total
(Off - Def) |
| Points scored/allowed |
.69 |
-.67 |
.91 |
| VOA (not adjusted for opponent) |
.68 |
-.60 |
.89 |
| DVOA |
.65 |
-.55 |
.86 |
| Yards gained/allowed |
.51 |
-.44 |
.67 |
| Yards gained/allowed per play |
.50 |
-.36 |
.70 |
| Correlation of various stats from year to year, 2000-2005 |
| Stat |
Correlation
with wins Y+1 |
Correlation
with same stat Y+1 |
| DVOA |
.33 |
.46 |
| VOA (not adjusted for opponent) |
.31 |
.39 |
| Points scored - points allowed |
.26 |
.32 |
| Wins |
.24 |
.24 |
| Yards gained - yards allowed |
.21 |
.42 |
Correlation of preseason team DVOA projection
to actual DVOA, 2001-2005 |
| Offense |
.79 |
| Defense |
.67 |
| Special Teams |
.60 |
| Total DVOA |
.71 |
(For those unfamiliar with statistical terms, correlation coefficients are explained
here).
Q: I want to bet on this game. How does DVOA convert into expected score?
A: There are many websites that provide gambling services. Football Outsiders is
not really one of them. We know that many people use our stats to influence
their gambling decisions, but our stats and analysis are primarily here to enhance understanding of
how to win football games and how to build a Super Bowl champion. We have
considered creating a system to use DVOA and other variables to pick games
against the spread, but we're uncomfortable being judged on a system that's
slapped together in a totally half-assed fashion, so we won't be introducing
anything like this until we know we can do it right. In the meantime, check out
the weekly picks against the spread in Scramble for the Ball and Seventh
Day Adventure.
Q: Why is Football Outsiders biased in favor of the New England Patriots (or
Denver Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles, Seattle Seahawks, Indianapolis Colts,
etc.)?
A: We're not biased against your favorite team, we're actually biased
against you personally, as well as your race, religion, city of origin, sexual
activities, and your promiscuous mother.
No, no, that's a joke. But since you
must know, the statistical rankings here are based entirely on the NFL's
play-by-play data, and are not adjusted to reflect bias for or against any
particular team. Whenever formulas are adjusted, it is to improve their
performance over nine years of data for over 250 team seasons, and changes are not geared toward screwing over any one team.
On the other hand, all of the writers here are fans first, and it has always
been the policy of Football Outsiders to be very upfront about which teams we
root for. Here is a list, just in case readers want to go looking
for hints of bias:
- Aaron Schatz: New England Patriots
- Russell Levine: Tampa Bay Buccaneers / Michigan Wolverines
- Michael David Smith: Detroit Lions / Illinois Fighting Illini
- Mike Tanier: Philadelphia Eagles
- Bill Barnwell: New York Giants
- Doug Farrar: Seattle Seahawks
- Brian Fremeau: Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Ned Macey: Indianapolis Colts / Michigan Wolverines
- Vin Gauri: Cleveland Browns / Michigan Wolverines
- Tim Gerheim: Houston Texans / Texas Longhorns
- Bill Moore: New England Patriots
- Ryan Wilson: Pittsburgh Steelers / North Carolina Tarheels
- Will Carroll: Indianapolis Colts
- Ben Riley: Seattle Seahawks
- Sean McCormick: New York Jets
- Stuart Fraser: Pittsburgh Steelers
- Vincent Verhei: Atlanta Falcons
- Benjy Rose (tech): New York Jets
- Jason Beattie (cartoons): Denver Broncos
- Al Bogdan (FO emeritus): New York Giants
The most common bias complaint is that we are pro-Patriots, but this is easy
to explain. Aaron Schatz, the editor-in-chief, is a Patriots fan and the most
visible writer on the site. Most of the media attention during the first year of
Football Outsiders came from Boston Sports Media Watch, Boston sports radio, and
the Boston Globe. We've done polls, and more Patriots fans read FO than
fans of any other team (Eagles and Steelers are second and third) which means
there's lots of Pats talk in the discussion threads. Plus, the Patriots happen
to have won the Super Bowl in the first two years of our existence, so we
couldn't exactly say nasty things about them. The stats are not biased in favor
of the Patriots in any way, and if you find hints of pro-Patriots bias in Ned
Macey's articles, you are seriously looking too hard.
Q: If you aren't pro-Patriots, why do you write weekly Patriots columns
for the Patriots Daily blog?
A: No other team-specific website has asked. (Exception, sort of: Doug Farrar is editor-in-chief
of Seahawks.net, so FO
stats show up over there all the time.) Bill Barnwell, who writes those
articles, is actually a Giants fan, not a Patriots fan.
Q: What's the deal with all the mentions of Brown University (or Sean
Morey, Nick Hartigan, and Zak DeOssie)?
A: The initial founders of Football Outsiders, for the most part, were
brothers at Zeta Delta Xi at Brown University (Aaron, Benjy, Jason, Ian, and
ex-Scramble author Al Bogdan). Since FO started, we've picked up two other Brown
graduates who are a bit younger and were not our fraternity brothers (Tim
Gerheim and Alex Carnevale). So there are a LOT of Brown people on the staff.
Sean Morey is the only Brown graduate currently on an active NFL roster. Nick
Hartigan was the leading rusher in NCAA I-AA in 2005, and got mentioned around
here a lot when he was trying to make the Jets roster (he failed). Zak DeOssie
is the prime NFL prospect in the Class of 2007. Brown doesn't send a lot of
people to the pros compared to the school that ranks second in FO connections
(Michigan) so we end up talking about these obscure players a lot.
Q: Hey, what happened to the open discussion threads for each week's
games?
A: Yes, we still have those discussion threads, but they are no longer on the
front page. The site was crashing because of too many readers trying to access
the threads during Sunday games. To solve this, we set up a new discussion board
which will
feature the open game discussions each week.
We do a single thread rather than separate threads for each
game based on reader feedback: despite the huge number of comments in each
thread, people like being able to follow other games thanks to the comments of
their fellow readers.
Q: Are there any rules for the discussion threads? Do you guys moderate at all? Are any topics
off-limits?
A: We generally just ask that you keep the discussions civil and relatively
family-friendly. Personal attacks are discouraged, comment spam is not
well-received, and comments that are racist or otherwise blatantly offensive
will be removed. Repeated offenses can result in a
banning, although we hope to avoid that whenever possible. The comment filter
picks up most swears, so try not to use them. It also picks up a lot of
references to gambling and specific drugs, words popular with spammers. Please limit political commentary as much as possible, as it tends to
dominate any thread in which it's started. (The exception is any thread about
Gregg Easterbrook's TMQ, where political discussion is unavoidable.)
We do pride ourselves
on having some of the most intelligent, humorous, and thoughtful readers on the
internet, and our discussions cover a wide variety of topics. In general, we
frown on thread hijacking, except of course for the weekly game discussion
threads which can discuss pretty much anything. Our readers do a
very good job of self-policing, and we encourage you to help keep things under
control and nicely warn people who may be getting out of hand.
One good guideline: If you feel the need to describe any NFL player as the black ___, don't.
Q: Why don't you have open discussion boards where people can start their
own threads?
A: The FO staff has discussed this a few times and, for now, we still like
things this way, where discussions are kept to the topics we want to discuss:
either our articles, or the articles from around the Web linked in Extra Points.
There are two exceptions, found in our new open message boards. One is for
discussing fantasy
football, the other for discussing our
book. (In the off-season, we also have an open board for discussing the NFL
draft.)
Q: Who is Catholic Match Girl?
A: Catholic Match Girl is the girl from an advertisement that the Catholic Match online dating service bought on the site in September and October of 2006. She lovingly stared at our readers for weeks, and they became quite fixated on her.
Q: Who's better, Peyton Manning or Tom Brady?
A: It is official Football Outsiders policy that the answer to this question
is "Bob Sanders." Arguments about Brady and Manning tend to take
over any discussion when either one is mentioned, so we've actually created a
special thread reserved solely for insane
Brady/Manning arguments. Seriously, if you start comparing the two, don't be
surprised if your comments are deleted.
Q: Do Football Outsiders writers agree on everything?
A: No. We have to constantly remind people of this, but the Football Outsiders writers do not share a hive mind.
We are each independent thinkers with our own independent opinions.
Q: I have a question about [anything]. How do I e-mail you?
A: You'll
find the contact form here. We try to provide guidance as to where to send
specific types of questions. PLEASE do not send the same e-mail to six different
people in an attempt to get an answer. It's annoying.
Q: I asked a question in the comment thread to your article, why didn't
you answer it? (or, I e-mailed you a question, why didn't you answer it?)
A: It's often hard to keep track of all the comments in each discussion
thread with all the other deadlines the writers have. We're more likely to
answer questions by e-mail. But even then, we get so much more e-mail now than
we did at the beginning, we can't answer it all. You are more likely to get an
answer about a non-stats question if you e-mail someone on the FO staff other
than Aaron Schatz. Fantasy questions should go to Bill Barnwell, who writes Scramble for the Ball.
Q: Can I become a writer (or intern) for Football Outsiders?
A: In general, we have no openings for additional regular writers. However, all
readers are welcome to submit guest columns. You can submit either a rough
draft, or just the idea to see whether we like it or not. The basic rules around
here for a guest column is that it has to be different than all the other NFL
writing out there (or really, really funny). Many FO writers, like
Michael David Smith and Mike Tanier, got started by writing guest columns.
As far as interning, every so often we put up announcements when we need
interns. While it's good to have lots of people who want to help, it's hard to
keep track of more than four or five interns at a time. But when we need more
people, we'll let the readers know. Interning can also be a route to writing for
FO regularly (example: Bill Barnwell).
If you want to help out and we don't need interns right now, consider getting
involved in the Football Outsiders game charting project by e-mailing Bill Moore
at charting-at-footballoutsiders.com.
Q: You should write an article about [topic].
A: Forgetting for a second that this isn't actually a question, the first
thing you should do is check the archives, and see if an article has already
been written about that topic. In the three years FO has been online, we've
already written articles covering a wide range of topics. It's also possible the
topic was covered in Pro Football Prospectus 2005, Pro Football
Prospectus 2006, or the long lost Pro Football Forecast 2004.
If the topic hasn't been previously examined, there's a chance it's on the
"to do" list. The list of topics for future study is REALLY long.
However, don't be afraid to suggest new things in e-mail. Often reader
suggestions become articles or improvements to our stats -- they just don't
often become articles or improvements to our stats immediately.
Q: How do I find your 2004 book?
A: Pro Football Forecast 2004 (a.k.a. PFP: The Lost Year) is a
long and complicated story, but because the book is hard to find, we are selling
the articles we wrote as an online package. You'll
find that here.
Q: I came here from Baseball Prospectus, and I'm just getting into the sport
of football. If I want to read something intelligent to complement what I'm
learning from Football Outsiders, what are the best books out there about the
NFL?
A: The two best books about football, both of which are unfortunately out of
print, are The Hidden Game of Football by John Thorn, Pete Palmer, and
Bob Carroll -- which inspired many of the early stats on this website -- and The
New Thinking Man's Guide to Pro Football by Paul Zimmerman. The first book
explores the statistical side of the game, the second book explores strategy and
play on the field. Of course, you want to pick up the latest edition of Pro
Football Prospectus as well.
Q: Can you calculate DVOA for college?
A: We do have play-by-play data for the last two NCAA seasons, and simply
have not had the time to study it yet. Keep in mind that with
so many more teams, fewer common opponents, and different styles of play in
different conferences, creating a collegiate DVOA will be much harder than
creating DVOA for the NFL. We do feature a drive-based rating
system called the Fremeau Efficiency Index, along with two college football commentary columns, Confessions of a Football
Junkie and Seventh Day Adventure.
Q: Where does the old play-by-play data come from? Can I get it from you?
A: OK, this is complicated. All the play-by-play data we use is publicly
available. Data from prior to 2002 was collected from various Internet archive
sites. An absurd number of hours went into collecting this data, and we don't
really send it out freely. We are considering making it available in the future.
There are three exceptions:
If you want to write a guest column, and we like your idea, we can send you a
specific cut of the data that will help you do the research.
If you are working on a class project in high school or college, and we have
the time to put it together, we'll send you a specific cut of the data that will
help you do the research.
2005 and 2006 game charting data -- the data privately collected by Football Outsiders
-- is now available for sale in the Football
Outsiders store.
Q: Will you be updating the KUBIAK fantasy projections during the season?
A: Possibly. It depends on time
constraints.
Q: Can I buy some Football Outsiders stuff, like a t-shirt or something?
A: Yes! We opened the Football Outsiders Swag Shoppe in December 2006.
Thanks to reader "Trogdor" for his help writing this FAQ.
