by Brian Fremeau

The Fremeau Efficiency Index principles and methodology can be found here. Like DVOA, FEI rewards playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punishes losing to poor teams more harshly than it rewards defeating poor teams. Unlike DVOA, it is drive-based, not play-by-play based, and it is specifically engineered to measure the college game.

FEI is the opponent-adjusted value of Game Efficiency, a measurement of the success rate of a team scoring and preventing opponent scoring throughout the non-garbage-time possessions of a game. Like DVOA, it represents a team's efficiency value over average. Strength of Schedule is calculated from a privileged perspective (explained here) and represents the likelihood that an Elite team (top 5) would post an undefeated record against the given team's opponents to date.

The following ratings are calculated based on data from all FBS games played through Sunday, November 23. Only games between FBS teams are considered.

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency are the opponent-adjusted values of Offensive Efficiency and Defensive Efficiency, explained here. Like FEI, the multiple-order adjustments are weighted according to both the strength of the opponent and the relative significance of the result; efficiency against a team's best competition faced is given more relevance weight. AOE and ADE represent a team's value over/under average. Positive AOE and negative ADE are the most valuable.

The Week 13 FEI Ratings for all 120 FBS teams can be found here. Expanded FEI Ratings data can be found here.

Don't Count On Anything

At this point last season, the eventual national champions hadn't yet lost their second game. LSU had survived their mid-season triple-overtime loss to Kentucky and had re-ascended to the top of the BCS standings, only to fall to Arkansas Thanksgiving weekend, again in triple-overtime. This year has been marked more by crazy blowouts than crazy upsets, but we might be in for both this weekend.

Tie-breaking controversies loom in the Big 12 South, three non-BCS-conference undefeated teams are looking for a shot, and there has been more "resume" versus "deserve" debate than in any year I can remember. But I wonder, as I did several weeks ago, why are we taking an undefeated finish by the top teams as some sort of given?

The nation pretty much agrees that six great teams still playing football are worth discussing: Alabama, Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and USC. (Penn State and Utah have concluded their regular seasons). All six are undefeated or have suffered only one loss, all have looked like the greatest team on the planet at least once this year, and all may rightly pose a strong argument for a college football playoff. Alabama and Florida have a showdown date next weekend, but none can look past this week, even though FEI projects each of them to win. As we have seen with Projected Win Expectations (PWE), that doesn't mean they all will.

In fact, according to this week's PWE, the projected likelihood that all six will win is only 41.1 percent. Florida and Oklahoma have the toughest tests, and both are on the road. An Oklahoma State victory over the Sooners would throw the biggest wrench into the BCS, but if you're really rooting for chaos, root for Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, and Baylor. Has anyone thought about breaking a four-way tie in the Big 12 South?

Special Attention

The Michigan Wolverines mercifully concluded their season on Saturday with a 42-7 drubbing at the hands of Ohio State. Like the Penn State game back in Week 8, the Wolverines fought competitively into halftime before being overwhelmed and dominated down the stretch. Michigan's year-long struggles were exposed on both sides of the ball, and their season postscript will likely focus on an underperforming defense and an overhauled and underaged offense learning (slowly) along the way.

What might be overlooked is special teams. The Wolverines punt unit was capable, though well-practiced, kicking more often per game than all but one other team in the country (Central Florida). The field goal, kickoff, punt return and kickoff return teams were unremarkable, at least as far as conventional stats go. But something in the Ohio State game box score made me take another look: Michigan fumbled a first quarter punt return and a fourth quarter kickoff return against the Buckeyes.

In a 35-point blowout loss, those types of miscues are largely inconsequential. The Buckeyes scored a short-field touchdown after the fourth quarter cough-up, and the Wolverines forced back-to-back three-and-outs to escape the first fumble unscathed. So what? If Michigan fans haven't been counting along, these were the seventh and eighth fumbles lost by special teams return units on the season. That total is four more than any other team in the nation in 2008, and three more than any other team in 2007. Only one Michigan opponent returned the favor even once on special teams all season, and it was a long time ago -- Utah fumbled away the very first punt of Michigan's forgettable season just 90 seconds into the opening quarter in Week 1.

How damaging were those turnovers? Michigan gave up 104 more points than it scored in 2008, and the eight special teams turnovers directly led to seven scores and 45 total opponent points. The opponent's field position alone was worth 31 points to an average offense; had Michigan retained possession, their eight drives headed the other way would have been worth 16 points to an average offense, a 47-point swing in field position scoring expectation. Only twice this year did Michigan return a punt for a score of their own, once each against Purdue and Northwestern, but the Wolverines gave back a special teams fumble in each of those games as well.

On top of the turnovers, Michigan frequently flirted with special teams disaster by mishandling kicks, often pinning themselves deep after gathering in the ball. Michigan failed to return a kickoff to the 20-yard line 13 times in 2008, and those drives netted one field goal and one safety on the season. Overall in field position, Michigan dug itself a 36.7-point expecation hole relative to its opponents this year, about three points per game. The only teams worse off in 2008 were Washington State (1-10) and Eastern Michigan (1-9).

Notre Dame suffered a similar field position deficit last season, and of course, a similar record. When you are in the midst of rebuilding, it certainly doesn't help to be so snake-bitten in such a fundamental area. Taking care of the ball in the return game probably won't top the to-do list of Rich Rodriguez, but maybe it should.

Posted by: Brian Fremeau on 26 Nov 2008

11 comments, Last at 29 Nov 2008, 3:34pm by nugwin