by Brian Fremeau

The Fremeau Efficiency Index principles and methodology can be found here. Like DVOA, FEI rewards playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punishes losing to poor teams more harshly than it rewards defeating poor teams. Unlike DVOA, it is drive-based, not play-by-play based, and it is specifically engineered to measure the college game.

FEI is the opponent-adjusted value of Game Efficiency (GE), a measurement of the success rate of a team scoring and preventing opponent scoring throughout the non-garbage-time possessions of a game. Like DVOA, it represents a team's efficiency value over average. Strength of Schedule (SOS) is calculated from a privileged perspective (explained here) and represents the likelihood that an Elite team (top-5) would post an undefeated record against the given team's opponents.

Now that enough game data is available, projected outcomes are no longer included in the FEI ratings. The following ratings are calculated from all FBS games played through Saturday, October 11. Only games between FBS teams are considered.

The Week 7 FEI Ratings for all 120 FBS teams can be found here. Expanded FEI Ratings data can be found here.

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets haven't been ranked in the Associated Press top 25 since early September last season. Running a triple-option offense at a BCS conference school in the 21st century under new coach Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech has defeated only three FBS teams. Last weekend, they ran up a whopping 10-7 victory over Gardner-Webb. What in the world are they doing at No. 4 in this week's FEI ratings?

First, the Gardner-Webb game, like all FCS games, isn't counted. But even if I did include it, I would have to also include the Yellow Jackets' dominant victory over Jacksonville State back in August, so it would probably be a wash.

Second, the projected results have now been entirely eliminated, and team ratings from now on will exclusively reflect results on the field in 2008. Teams like Georgia Tech actually received a boost simply by eliminating the remaining dead weight of their more modest projected rating. Meanwhile, two projected heavyweights, USC and Florida, dropped somewhat in the rankings even after posting a solid victory last week. Why? Their respective opponents, Arizona State and LSU, have done little to nothing yet this season to meet their projected expectations, and most of their other opponents didn't help improve their profiles either.

Third, line up Georgia Tech's resume with, say, Georgia's and try to defend the Bulldogs' more lofty public perception. Georgia Tech handed Boston College its only loss of the year in Boston, and Georgia won at South Carolina. Georgia Tech steamrolled Mississippi State (1-4) and Duke (2-2), and Georgia let Arizona State (1-4) and Tennessee (2-4) hang in against them. Georgia Tech lost a squeaker to Virginia Tech (4-1) and Georgia had its doors blown off against Alabama (6-0).

This isn't to suggest that Georgia Tech will be running all the way to a BCS championship. More than likely, they are going to play well down the stretch, never get blown out, stick around the FEI top 20, and be one of those mild-mannered but dangerous three-or-so-loss teams in late November -- just in time for the Georgia game.

Going Undefeated

Texas meets Missouri Saturday night in Act II of Burnt October, a four-part consecutive week mini-series drama co-starring Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech, each of whom have dominated opponents outside their circle. The Longhorns are actually one of ten remaining undefeated teams through seven weeks this season, three more than any other year since 2003. Five of the ten are non-BCS teams (Ball State, Boise State, Utah, BYU, and Tulsa). From 2003 to 2007, only six total non-BCS teams remained undefeated through seven weeks. None of this year's five appear to be world-beaters, but its too early to tell if they'll be remembered like 2007 Hawaii (worst undefeated regular-season team in memory) or 2004 Utah (should have had a chance against the best).

BYU and Utah play each other at the end of the year, and Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State still must play a round robin. Therefore, only seven of the ten current undefeated teams can mathematically run the table. How likely is it to happen for any of them? The table below shows each team's likelihood of winning all of its remaining scheduled games (possible conference title games and bowl games are not figured into the equation), as a function of the current FEI ratings and the Projected Win Expectation (PWE) model.

Through seven weeks last year, Hawaii had only a 10.6 percent chance of winning out. Combined, FEI expected one or two of the six remaining undefeated teams in 2007 to succeed in doing so, and only the Warriors were able to pull it off. This year, FEI expects three of the remaining ten to complete a perfect regular season.

BCS Eve

This Sunday, the first BCS Ratings of 2008 will be released. You can count on the following to be mentioned ad nauseum by the talking heads next week: The number one team in the first BCS ratings has appeared in the BCS championship game in each of the last five seasons. Its a coveted spot, for sure. What you might not hear from the talking heads is that four of those front-runners lost the BCS championship game, and the eventual national champion has been ranked outside the BCS first-release top 5 twice in five years.

I'm pretty sure you won't hear from the talking heads that the BCS champion and the FEI No. 1 team at season's end has appeared in the Week Seven FEI Top 5 every year since 2003. Nine of the ten BCS championship game participants since 2003 have appeared in the Week Seven FEI Top 5 (Ohio State last season was No. 12 in Week 7, the lone exception).

The 2007 LSU Tigers held the FEI No. 1 ranking from Week Seven through the BCS championship game last year. Will Penn State match the same feat? Will this weekend's Missouri vs. Texas clash be only a precursor of a Big 12 championship matchup for a berth in the BCS title game? If the SEC and Big 12 are won by two-loss teams, could one of the under-the-radar ACC teams really sneak in? Or will both BCS participants emerge from outside this week's FEI top 5 for the first time ever? Five years of data is a trend, not a guarantee, Nittany Lions fans. But for the rest of the nation, fans everywhere can start wringing their hands now over another good chance at a BCS championship berth for the Big Ten.

Posted by: Brian Fremeau on 15 Oct 2008

17 comments, Last at 16 Oct 2008, 6:03pm by Kirk