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25 Nov 2009

Week 12 FEI Ratings

by Brian Fremeau

A mostly uneventful weekend translates to a mostly uneventful FEI top-25 update. Every team in last week's top 15 was victorious or idle, and most of the games that were played weren't very competitive. The teams at the very top -- Alabama, Florida, Texas, and TCU -- won by a combined margin of 203-33. Yawn.

According to FEI, none of the undefeated contenders has played a particularly challenging schedule this season. Alabama has played No. 7 Virginia Tech, No. 23 LSU, and No. 24 Mississippi, but each of the other unblemished teams has knocked off only one FEI top-25 opponent each. The home stretch will feature a few more marquee matchups, including the upcoming Alabama-Florida SEC championship game pitting No. 1 against No. 2 a week from Saturday. Good news, because the 2009 season and college football fans deserve at least one Game of the Year.

Week 12 FEI Top 25

The principles of the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) can be found here. Like DVOA, FEI rewards playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punishes losing to poor teams more harshly than it rewards defeating poor teams. Unlike DVOA, it is drive-based, not play-by-play based, and it is specifically engineered to measure the college game.

FEI is the opponent-adjusted value of Game Efficiency (GE), a measurement of the success rate of a team scoring and preventing opponent scoring throughout the non-garbage-time possessions of a game. Like DVOA, it represents a team's efficiency value over average. Strength of Schedule (SOS) is calculated as the likelihood that an elite team would win every game on the given team's schedule to date. SOS listed here does not include future games scheduled.

Only games between FBS teams are considered in the FEI calculations. Preseason projections are not a factor in the current calculations. Current FEI ratings are a function of results of games played through Nov. 21st.

FEI ratings for all 120 FBS teams are now listed in the stats page section of FootballOutsiders.com. Click here for current ratings; the pull-down menu in the stats section directs you to 2007 and 2008 ratings.

Rank Team FBS
W-L
FEI Last
Wk
GE GE
Rk
SOS SOS
Rk
OE OE
Rk
Off
FEI
OFEI
Rk
DE DE
Rk
Def
FEI
DFEI
Rk
FPA FPA
Rk
1 Alabama 10-0 .286 1 .298 5 .330 59 .154 34 .334 15 -.722 2 -.657 2 .532 23
2 Florida 10-0 .253 4 .316 4 .458 88 .306 25 .319 18 -.643 5 -.542 6 .551 11
3 Texas 11-0 .247 3 .398 1 .540 100 .406 15 .387 10 -.723 1 -.455 11 .577 4
4 TCU 10-0 .242 2 .345 3 .365 70 .286 26 .259 23 -.645 4 -.444 14 .568 5
5 Georgia Tech 9-1 .238 5 .137 21 .123 9 .488 8 .679 1 .135 78 -.147 39 .504 54
6 Cincinnati 9-0 .238 6 .293 6 .451 87 1.009 1 .576 3 -.163 34 -.209 35 .501 58
7 Virginia Tech 8-3 .236 7 .193 13 .125 11 .178 31 .364 13 -.448 13 -.455 12 .554 10
8 Clemson 7-3 .235 8 .148 18 .156 23 -.079 71 .153 38 -.340 22 -.537 7 .561 8
9 Oregon 9-2 .230 11 .199 11 .173 27 .371 18 .475 7 -.372 20 -.373 19 .508 50
10 Ohio State 10-2 .228 9 .217 8 .260 42 -.007 58 .178 32 -.647 3 -.585 5 .558 9
11 North Carolina 6-3 .222 13 .029 50 .106 5 -.291 94 .087 47 -.421 17 -.620 3 .472 96
12 Miami 7-3 .218 14 .082 37 .090 2 .163 32 .412 8 -.127 40 -.398 16 .508 51
Rank Team FBS
W-L
FEI Last
Wk
GE GE
Rk
SOS SOS
Rk
OE OE
Rk
Off
FEI
OFEI
Rk
DE DE
Rk
Def
FEI
DFEI
Rk
FPA FPA
Rk
13 Iowa 9-2 .205 10 .118 27 .175 29 -.164 83 .057 53 -.539 8 -.615 4 .512 41
14 Pittsburgh 8-1 .202 12 .217 7 .625 113 .416 13 .333 16 -.100 44 -.192 37 .548 13
15 Oregon State 7-3 .192 15 .146 19 .227 37 .361 20 .306 20 .029 64 -.078 50 .546 14
16 Penn State 9-2 .188 20 .216 9 .361 69 .261 27 .225 30 -.637 6 -.528 8 .512 43
17 Boise State 10-0 .184 17 .385 2 .641 114 .464 9 .079 51 -.441 16 -.398 15 .588 2
18 Stanford 7-4 .181 16 .134 23 .162 25 .527 7 .670 2 .318 101 .278 94 .563 7
19 Arizona 5-4 .180 18 .092 35 .156 22 .153 36 .228 29 -.163 35 -.282 23 .524 29
20 USC 7-3 .162 21 .055 41 .115 6 .156 33 .337 14 -.169 32 -.213 34 .495 64
21 Florida State 5-5 .157 23 .040 46 .103 4 .388 17 .539 6 .498 113 .185 86 .536 20
22 Texas Tech 6-4 .155 27 .174 16 .242 38 .390 16 .407 9 -.356 21 -.219 33 .512 42
23 LSU 8-3 .139 22 .140 20 .146 18 -.083 74 .072 52 -.456 12 -.384 17 .544 18
24 Mississippi 6-3 .135 30 .114 30 .318 56 .017 54 .142 40 -.443 15 -.506 9 .503 57
25 Connecticut 4-5 .135 31 .042 45 .157 24 .025 53 .161 35 .116 74 -.019 61 .550 12

Posted by: Brian Fremeau on 25 Nov 2009

1 comment, Last at 25 Nov 2009, 6:42pm by Will

Comments

1
by Will :: Wed, 11/25/2009 - 6:42pm

Man there's some ACC love going on again this year.

Will