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» Varsity Numbers: Honing in

Bill Connelly again looks at which college football teams the F/+ ratings are sure about, and which teams remain a mystery (led by Appalachian State).

19 Oct 2010

FEI: Building a Resume

by Brian Fremeau

Just over half of all FBS vs. FBS college football games are in the books for 2010. Though there is plenty we don't yet know about how the rest of the season will shake out, the last few weeks have provided a few key indicators that we're in for a wild second half. It isn't just the parallels to 2007 that have caught our attention. In the national championship conversation, there is a heightened level of scrutiny regarding team resumes: Who did you beat? How well did you perform? How does it compare? Everyone might be answering these questions in their own way, but that kind of inquiry needs to permeate the discussion week in and week out for everyone. It isn't going to change every close-minded poll voter into an enlightened one overnight, but it's something.

One thing we do know: A bye week is a top team's best friend. It's not the extra rest, necessarily, but it is that the bye is the only sure way to stave off an upset. The Oregon Ducks watched this past weekend's carnage from the safety of their own homes and promptly claimed the No. 1 spot in the polls after Ohio State lost to Wisconsin. Oregon tightened its grip on the No. 1 FEI rating as well, not due to any particular game results but rather to the elevated overall profile of the Pac-10. Six Pac-10 teams rank among the top 21 nationally in this week's ratings.

Nebraska's loss to Texas on Saturday eliminated one possibility of a Big 12 championship showdown between undefeated juggernauts. Missouri and Oklahoma State could still make it happen, but each will need to navigate a gauntlet stretch of games before we can take that narrative too seriously. And both would have to knock off BCS No. 1 Oklahoma in the process. We've grown so accustomed lately to conference championship week featuring at least one so-called BCS title play-in game, it feels strange to be facing the opposite -- actual elimination games.

The SEC East appears to have eliminated itself from national contention, due to a 2-10 record against the SEC West and South Carolina's stumble against Kentucky. Six more games remain between the two divisions, and it might be possible for a team with a 3-5 conference record to play for the SEC championship out of the East. The SEC West elimination round kicks off with LSU and Auburn this weekend. Alabama tumbled a bit down the FEI ratings once I finally removed preseason projected data from the formula. A harsh light was cast on the Crimson Tide's good but not elite performances to date.

Michigan State slides into the driver's seat in the Big Ten, just in time for the Spartans' first out-of-state road trip this weekend at Northwestern. The Spartans have been solid on both sides of the ball and have the clearest remaining path to an undefeated season of anyone in the AQ conferences. Based on projected win expectations and current FEI ratings, MSU's likelihood of an undefeated season is 51 percent. That's better than everyone except Boise State: Oregon (32 percent), Auburn (36 percent), Boise State (67 percent), LSU (13 percent), Oklahoma (23 percent), TCU (46 percent), Missouri (17 percent), Oklahoma State (6 percent), Utah (1 percent).

Boise State and TCU are positioned well after having dominated in Game Efficiency to date. Boise State's schedule through last weekend rates stronger than seven of the other nine undefeated teams, and BSU's wins over Virginia Tech and Oregon State should keep them near the top of the FEI ratings. The Broncos, idle until Tuesday against Louisiana Tech, will sit this weekend out with maybe the best seat and poll position in the house.

Offensive and Defensive FEI

As I have discussed here in the last few weeks, I wait until Week 7 games are complete before totally eliminating preseason projected data from this year's calculations. Now that there is sufficient connectivity among college football teams, I also run the opponent-adjusted Offensive and Defensive FEI metrics.

As a refresher, the formula for raw Offensive Efficiency (OE) and Defensive Efficiency (DE) is simply drive-ending value produced divided by the starting field position value of those drives. Offensive FEI (OFEI) and Defensive FEI (DFEI) are the opponent-adjusted values of OE and DE. The opponent adjustments are calculated in the same way FEI is produced from Game Efficiency (GE).

I've created new offensive and defensive breakdown tables this year and have included several of the unadjusted drive efficiency splits that have appeared in this column recently. First Down (FD) rate is the percentage of drives that result in at least one first down or touchdown, essentially the inverse of three-and-out percentage. Available Yards (AY) divides the yards earned by the offense by the total yards available based on starting field position. Explosive Drives (Ex) is the percentage of each team's drives that average at least 10 yards per play. Methodical Drives (Me) is the percentage of each team's drives that have 10 or more plays.

For the first time, I've also created separate Offensive and Defensive Strength of Schedule metrics. These are produced exclusively from the respective OFEI and DFEI ratings. Offensive SOS (OSOS) represents the likelihood that an elite offense (two standard deviations better than average) would have an above-average OE rating against each of the defenses that team faced. Defensive SOS (DSOS) represents the likelihood that an elite defense would have an above-average DE rating against each of the offenses that team faced.

There are two very important notes as it relates to OSOS and DSOS. First, there is no direct relationship between these and overall SOS. Playing a strong set of defenses and a strong set of offenses is not necessarily the same as playing a set of games against teams that are strong both offensively and defensively. Second, there isn't a linear relationship between OE, OSOS, and OFEI. A team may perform well only against its weakest opponents and still have a strong OSOS, but those adjusted performances will not benefit its OFEI rating significantly. Likewise, of course, there isn't a linear relationship between DE, DSOS, and DFEI.

Offensive FEI Top-10 Breakdown
OFEI OFEI
Rk
Team FBS
Rec
FEI
Rk
OE OE
Rk
FD FD
Rk
AY AY
Rk
Ex Ex
Rk
Me Me
Rk
OSOS OSOS
Rk
.705 1 South Carolina 3-2 5 .609 9 .792 9 .572 15 .208 19 .125 69 .353 49
.680 2 Auburn 7-0 2 .499 13 .769 13 .593 8 .205 20 .090 99 .169 5
.644 3 Arkansas 3-2 34 .168 40 .733 31 .493 38 .233 11 .067 108 .230 16
.616 4 Michigan 4-2 30 .720 4 .742 26 .606 7 .258 5 .212 9 .247 23
.508 5 Wisconsin 5-1 15 .426 17 .732 33 .560 17 .125 55 .179 20 .292 37
.508 6 Virginia Tech 5-1 9 .611 7 .682 48 .536 27 .258 4 .061 113 .347 46
.497 7 Missouri 5-0 12 .208 35 .673 55 .488 41 .091 83 .127 67 .247 22
.494 8 Oklahoma 6-0 8 .372 21 .743 24 .510 33 .129 52 .200 12 .350 47
.489 9 USC 5-2 17 .771 3 .821 5 .639 4 .224 15 .179 18 .649 103
.461 10 Stanford 4-1 3 .609 8 .826 4 .658 3 .174 32 .217 7 .401 61
Defensive FEI Top-10 Breakdown
DFEI DFEI
Rk
Team FBS
Rec
FEI
Rk
DE DE
Rk
FD FD
Rk
AY AY
Rk
Ex Ex
Rk
Me Me
Rk
DSOS DSOS
Rk
-.595 1 Missouri 5-0 12 -.702 1 .596 25 .313 8 .053 6 .088 19 .638 103
-.563 2 Rutgers 3-2 51 -.444 9 .656 55 .334 11 .094 40 .078 12 .428 66
-.560 3 LSU 6-0 6 -.369 15 .537 6 .302 7 .060 12 .134 67 .336 42
-.545 4 Michigan State 6-0 7 -.296 22 .632 40 .414 47 .074 23 .132 65 .224 17
-.513 5 TCU 6-0 11 -.544 6 .500 2 .249 1 .138 72 .017 1 .349 47
-.507 6 Mississippi State 4-2 27 -.368 16 .667 61 .432 58 .019 1 .204 109 .242 23
-.505 7 Nebraska 4-1 10 -.462 8 .667 64 .318 10 .056 9 .093 29 .537 88
-.500 8 Iowa 4-1 20 -.572 4 .547 8 .338 13 .057 10 .170 94 .368 50
-.492 9 Miami 3-2 24 -.345 17 .551 11 .338 12 .087 34 .087 18 .370 51
-.483 10 Oregon 5-0 1 -.323 18 .636 43 .378 27 .121 60 .091 25 .437 68

The complete Offensive FEI breakdown for all teams can be found here.
The complete Defensive FEI breakdown for all teams can be found here.

Three-And-Out

Week 3: Three-and-outs, Available Yards, and Explosive Drives
Week 4: Reaching the Red Zone, Methodical Drives, and Late and Close Efficiency
Week 5: Converting 10+ Yard Drives Into Scores, Points Per Possession, and Scoring After Three-and-outs
Week 6: Yards Per TD Drive, Playing With 2- or 3-Score Lead, Third Downs Per First Down Series

I've been using this section of the weekly FEI column to introduce unique drive splits from the raw possession data I have collected. I'm not sure that approach has completely run its course, but now that I will be providing some of those drive splits on a weekly basis for all teams, I thought it would be interesting to use this section for a different purpose in the second half of the season -- comparing three teams' resumes.

In the tables below, I provide the Game Efficiency, Offensive FEI, Defensive FEI, and "Game" FEI (GFEI) for each team in each of its games to date. The ranking of those individual unit and game performances is provided. Note that there have been 344 FBS vs. FBS game played to date, meaning that there have been 688 individual game performances for each category.

The opponent FEI rating is also provided, as well as a general "Relevance" factor for that particular result for that team. As stated in the FEI principles, my system rewards playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punishes losing to poor teams more harshly than it rewards defeating poor teams. In the formula, the relevance factor is partly a function of the relative ratings of the two teams. The least relevant results receive about one-eighth as much weight as the most relevant results. For simplicity, I've generalized the relevance data here into three equally distributed categories, High, Med, and Low.

No. 5 South Carolina Gamecocks (3-2)
Date Wk Opponent Result Opp
FEI
GE GE
Rk
OFEI OFEI
Rk
DFEI DFEI
Rk
GFEI GFEI
Rk
Relevance
9/2 1 Southern Mississippi W 41-13 81 .588 25 1.326 27 .007 271 .373 69 Low
9/11 2 Georgia W 17-6 43 .185 184 .288 323 -1.030 17 .273 118 Med
9/25 4 at Auburn L 27-35 2 -.104 457 1.367 20 -.396 122 .532 17 High
10/9 6 Alabama W 35-21 16 .235 149 2.005 2 -.690 52 .564 12 High
10/16 7 at Kentucky L 28-31 26 -.036 388 .415 269 -.321 149 .291 111 High

Despite its second loss of the season (at Kentucky), South Carolina remains in the FEI Top 5, the second-highest ranked team from the SEC. In addition to the loss in Lexington, the most relevant data points for the Gamecocks rating are its defeat of No. 16 Alabama on October 9 and its narrow loss on the road against No. 2 Auburn on September 25. Oregon, Nebraska, and USC are the only other teams with two top-20 GFEI performances on the season.

No. 13 Arizona State Sun Devils (1-3)
Date Wk Opponent Result Opp
FEI
GE GE
Rk
OFEI OFEI
Rk
DFEI DFEI
Rk
GFEI GFEI
Rk
Relevance
9/18 3 at Wisconsin L 19-20 15 -.016 358 .969 87 -.420 115 .460 44 High
9/25 4 Oregon L 31-42 1 -.081 443 .893 105 -.598 70 .439 49 Med
10/2 5 at Oregon State L 28-31 14 -.036 386 -.095 461 -.472 104 .456 45 High
10/9 6 at Washington W 24-14 31 .143 202 .609 199 -.376 131 .439 48 Med

The Sun Devils are the biggest surprise in the FEI Top 25, and they are one of only four teams in the FEI top 40 with a losing FBS record. What's so impressive here? Arizona State has four GFEI top 50 performances, having suffered narrow losses on the road against Wisconsin and Oregon State and playing No. 1 Oregon tough at home. Only USC and Stanford have posted even three top 50 GFEI results.

No. 35 Utah Utes (6-0)
Date Wk Opponent Result Opp
FEI
GE GE
Rk
OFEI OFEI
Rk
DFEI DFEI
Rk
GFEI GFEI
Rk
Relevance
9/2 1 Pittsburgh W 27-24 37 .034 307 .424 263 -.379 130 .148 208 High
9/11 2 UNLV W 38-10 114 .300 105 -.395 548 .254 388 -.286 573 Low
9/18 3 at New Mexico W 56-14 119 .455 50 .514 233 .894 594 -.083 418 Low
9/25 4 San Jose State W 56-3 118 .743 10 .617 194 .110 321 .084 265 Low
10/9 6 at Iowa State W 68-27 99 .402 65 -.307 521 .267 392 .192 177 Low
10/16 7 at Wyoming W 30-6 111 .536 31 -.268 517 .206 368 .112 243 Low

Utah ranks in the Top 10 in the voted polls and BCS standings, but they are getting no love from FEI so far. Utah has played one of the weakest schedules to date -- the team's most relevant data point on the season is an overtime home victory over No. 37 Pittsburgh. There will be opportunities for Utah to elevate its profile in the coming weeks with games against Air Force, TCU, and Notre Dame, but until then, FEI remains skeptical of its body of work.

FEI Week 7 Top 25

The principles of the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) can be found here. FEI rewards playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punishes losing to poor teams more harshly than it rewards defeating poor teams. FEI is drive-based, not play-by-play based, and it is specifically engineered to measure the college game.

FEI is the opponent-adjusted value of Game Efficiency (GE), a measurement of the success rate of a team scoring and preventing opponent scoring throughout the non-garbage-time possessions of a game. FEI represents a team's efficiency value over average. Strength of Schedule (SOS) is calculated as the likelihood that an elite team (two standard deviations above average) would win every game on the given team's schedule to date. SOS listed here does not include future games scheduled.

Mean Wins (FBS MW) represent the average total games a team with the given FEI rating should expect to win against its complete schedule of FBS opponents. Remaining Mean Wins (FBS RW) represent the average expected team wins for games scheduled but not yet played.

Offensive FEI (OFEI) and Defensive FEI (DFEI) are the opponent-adjusted ratings of all non-garbage-time drives from scrimmage. Field Position Advantage (FPA) is the share of the value of total starting field position for the season earned by each team against its opponents. Field Goal Efficiency (FGE) is the point value per field goal attempt earned by the field goal unit.

Only games between FBS teams are considered in the FEI calculations. The FEI ratings published here are a function of the results of games played through October 16.

FEI ratings for all 120 FBS teams are listed in the stats page section of FootballOutsiders.com. Click here for current ratings; the pull-down menu in the stats section directs you to 2007 through 2009 ratings.

Rk Team FBS
Rec
FEI LW
Rk
GE GE
Rk
SOS SOS
Rk
FBS
MW
FBS
RW
OFEI OFEI
Rk
DFEI DFEI
Rk
FPA FPA
Rk
FGE FGE
Rk
1 Oregon 5-0 .300 1 .283 6 .360 32 9.3 5.0 .394 17 -.483 10 .568 4 .650 16
2 Auburn 7-0 .286 6 .169 17 .319 21 9.1 3.1 .680 2 -.471 11 .540 14 .054 58
3 Stanford 4-1 .272 4 .218 14 .225 5 8.7 4.8 .461 10 -.221 37 .539 18 .645 17
4 Boise State 6-0 .258 2 .454 1 .471 53 10.9 5.6 .338 20 -.455 13 .536 22 .431 29
5 South Carolina 3-2 .253 3 .143 22 .230 8 8.9 5.3 .705 1 -.332 23 .495 69 .269 38
6 LSU 6-0 .242 7 .117 27 .548 71 8.8 3.6 .264 26 -.560 3 .572 3 .607 20
7 Michigan State 6-0 .242 14 .167 18 .531 65 9.6 4.4 .411 15 -.545 4 .499 64 .831 5
8 Oklahoma 6-0 .241 10 .182 15 .592 78 10.1 4.8 .494 8 -.399 18 .531 24 .380 31
9 Virginia Tech 5-1 .232 12 .237 10 .359 30 9.0 4.1 .508 6 -.243 32 .547 12 .282 36
10 Nebraska 4-1 .228 9 .287 5 .665 91 9.3 5.0 .247 27 -.505 7 .529 29 .768 10
11 TCU 6-0 .224 8 .332 3 .681 93 9.7 4.3 .193 35 -.513 5 .558 9 .629 18
12 Missouri 5-0 .223 18 .252 9 .738 103 9.2 4.7 .497 7 -.595 1 .519 41 .501 24
Rk Team FBS
Rec
FEI LW
Rk
GE GE
Rk
SOS SOS
Rk
FBS
MW
FBS
RW
OFEI OFEI
Rk
DFEI DFEI
Rk
FPA FPA
Rk
FGE FGE
Rk
13 Arizona State 1-3 .219 26 -.015 68 .159 2 6.3 4.3 .276 25 -.228 35 .508 54 -.393 91
14 Oregon State 3-3 .212 13 -.024 73 .115 1 7.4 4.1 .450 11 .156 77 .540 15 -.447 93
15 Wisconsin 5-1 .205 32 .173 16 .322 23 8.4 4.0 .508 5 -.292 27 .51 51 .562 21
16 Alabama 6-1 .204 5 .280 7 .362 33 8.0 2.4 .429 14 -.287 29 .587 1 .214 43
17 USC 5-2 .203 21 .221 13 .341 27 9.1 3.5 .489 9 -.043 56 .567 5 -.949 112
18 North Carolina State 4-2 .191 15 .095 34 .458 50 8.1 3.7 .223 32 -.235 33 .530 28 -.060 67
19 Ohio State 6-1 .181 11 .304 4 .439 44 9.7 4.0 .374 18 -.305 25 .535 23 .075 55
20 Iowa 4-1 .174 20 .225 12 .522 63 8.0 4.1 .028 59 -.500 8 .505 59 -.485 95
21 Arizona 4-1 .166 16 .141 23 .602 81 6.7 2.8 .149 41 -.288 28 .515 45 .087 53
22 Oklahoma State 6-0 .158 25 .230 11 .877 116 9.4 4.0 .355 19 -.389 19 .512 50 1.006 2
23 North Carolina 4-2 .151 23 .089 36 .481 56 7.1 2.8 .445 13 -.296 26 .455 108 .123 49
24 Miami 3-2 .146 17 .024 57 .386 37 7.3 4.3 .059 55 -.492 9 .505 62 -.048 66
25 Clemson 2-3 .129 30 .055 46 .249 10 6.6 3.9 .194 34 -.412 17 .510 52 -.181 74

Posted by: Brian Fremeau on 19 Oct 2010

14 comments, Last at 23 Oct 2010, 12:09pm by Enjoy_Life

Comments

1
by zlionsfan :: Wed, 10/20/2010 - 12:19pm

I'm not at all surprised that Michigan's offense is rated so highly ... or putting it another way, I'm glad to see that FEI reflects what I see in their offense. They're in the top 10 in both explosive drives and methodical drives, and all that is against a pretty good set of defenses.

There are two schools of thought on the interwebs that I just don't understand right now. One is "See, we told you Michigan's offense wouldn't work against Big Ten teams." (I'm assuming they don't know Indiana is in the Big Ten ...) Hello? Iowa and Michigan State both have excellent defenses, and even with that in mind, Michigan's offense was decent against the Spartans and pretty good against Iowa. With QBs who can execute well, the offense will do just fine against pretty much any team, especially when they have a bit more experience. The defense is the problem.

The other is "Forcier should be running the offense because OMG Denard INT." Yeah, the sophomore QB who hadn't started a game until this year had the temerity to throw 3 interceptions against a top-5 defense. Throw the bum in the street! Never mind his speed, he's not allowed to throw a pick. (And never mind that he was 13 of 18 against Iowa.) I understand the angst among fans, but seriously, give the kid a chance to learn. He'll be fine. Tom Brady threw interceptions in 9 of his 13 games as a junior and the world did not end.

2
by mvhuber :: Wed, 10/20/2010 - 1:10pm

I think the strength of schedule concepts that you highlight are extremely insightful. It makes you think about how important strength of schedule is in college basketball in terms of RPI rankings and tournament implications. Bringing SOS to the forefront I think helps to put more backing behind a playoff system. Traditionally, the college football team with no losses (maybe one-loss) plays for the national championship. However, the team with 2 or 3 losses that has played a highly challenging schedule of opponents may be a better team. I don't think the current BCS system supports the idea of multi-loss teams playing for a title either on a formulaic or purely qualitative basis. However, a playoff system certainly would. Hopefully, we continue to move toward a playoff in college football even if it means jeopardizing the players' academic success (I mean how do FCS and CBB athletes do it?!?!?).

3
by cfn_ms :: Wed, 10/20/2010 - 1:34pm

seems kind of high. I'd think at Iowa would be close to a tossup, and that @ NW and @ Penn St would at least be ~ 10% upset chances (vs Minn / vs Purdue look like gimmes). Looking at the chart, I'd guess that adjusting for HFA, the MSU-Iowa game is around a tossup.

Does FEI not factor in home-field, or am I missing something when guesstimating upset chances? Also, I noticed that MSU is only about a 5 point fave @ Northwestern this weekend. Clearly that seems low to the model, and honestly it seems a bit low to me too. Any ideas why Vegas rated them that way? NW is at home and off a bye, but even so it seems low. Do you think Vegas gives points for bye's, or is something else going on?

4
by Brian Fremeau :: Wed, 10/20/2010 - 2:00pm

FEI SOS, projected win expectations, remaining mean wins do factor in home field advantage. Here they are game by game based on current FEI ratings:
91% at Northwestern (would be 95% on neutral field)
60% at Iowa (would be 68% on neutral field)
98% vs. Minnesota (97% on neutral field)
98% vs. Purdue (96% on neutral field)
97% at Penn State (98% on neutral field)

5
by cfn_ms :: Wed, 10/20/2010 - 2:56pm

I think that 91% @ NW and especially 97% @ PSU look high to me (I'd take 5:1 odds on NW in that game w/o blinking, and would probably do the same for PSU). Is this something where you take the two FEI ratings and apply each team's variance to date or the like? If so, would it make sense to apply an additional variation based on uncertainty about each team's rating? (which could be meaningful since there's only been 7 weeks played so far)

6
by Brian Fremeau :: Wed, 10/20/2010 - 3:04pm

Instinctively, they do seem high. I too think that NW and PSU are probably a bit better than FEI is giving them credit for to date.

That said, the PWEs for all games each weekend have performed consistently well this year. 85+% PWE teams have been winning at an 85+% rate as expected.

7
by cfn_ms :: Wed, 10/20/2010 - 3:15pm

Interesting. Well, if 85+ is aggregate doing about as expected, I'm stumped then. Probably the answer is that FEI is much higher on Michigan St than Vegas is (I know it's much higher than my own model), but it could well be that FEI is right about them.

I'm personally skeptical of a team that barely held off Notre Dame and only beat FAU by 13, both at home (does FEI count the FAU as home or away? officially it was "away"... but it was in Detroit, so it really was a home game). But I could be overly down on them. I think we'll know more about that team by the time they leave Iowa (and could know as early as this weekend if they can't get by NW). Probably too early to really know for sure about them until the schedule ratchets up (which it's done a bit with the Wisc and Mich games).

8
by zlionsfan :: Wed, 10/20/2010 - 3:33pm

that Northwestern lost at home to the same crippled Purdue team that MSU will be facing later this season. I'm not saying that the Wildcats will play that poorly against the Spartans, but it certainly isn't an encouraging sign for them.

I also did/do not think quite as highly of Michigan State (the quality of this year's team, I mean) as others might ... but they are unbeaten, and I will give them credit for surviving the tough Big Ten games so far and for navigating Cupcake Alley better than several other contenders did this season. In a season like this, there is something to be said for not losing, even if their overall schedule may end up weaker than some of the other contenders'.

It's probably a good thing for the Big Ten that MSU and OSU don't play this season. As I posted in another thread, they could both reach BCS games if they win out, and if MSU loses at least once, it's unlikely the next-best team will jump the other BCS contenders. (This is what happens when teams refuse to line up in a nice, orderly fashion and only beat teams below them.)

9
by Enjoy_Life :: Wed, 10/20/2010 - 8:21pm

M is averaging 491 YPG in its three Big10 conference games. Which is only 13% less than what we averaged in the OOC. The 491 YPG is ranked #1 in the Big10.

I am not a fan of YPG but this was the first week for the OFEI numbers. Is there an FEI comparison of Ms Offense in the OOC versus in-conference games so far?

10
by Brian Fremeau :: Wed, 10/20/2010 - 8:53pm

From best to worst, here are Michigan's game-by-game OFEI results (opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency), including national rank and "relevance" category for each data point:

1.766 (5) vs. Iowa (Med)
1.383 (18) vs. Bowling Green (Low)
1.229 (38) vs. Michigan State (Med)
1.223 (39) vs. Connecticut (Med)
0.679 (176) at Indiana (Low)
0.342 (305) at Notre Dame (High)

I think the data supports your conclusion that Michigan's offensive efficiency hasn't dropped off in conference vs. non-conference play.

11
by Kal :: Thu, 10/21/2010 - 10:49am

I desperately want all of Oregon's opponents to lose horribly while Oregon keeps winning, just so that FEI and S&P can diverge to the point where one team is the #1 in one ranking and 120th in the other.

12
by CuseFanInSoCal :: Thu, 10/21/2010 - 4:04pm

You do realize that 3/4 of Oregon's opponents are Pac 10 teams that all play each other (until next year, anyway), and so if one of them loses the other wins, right?

13
by Kal :: Fri, 10/22/2010 - 2:50am

Well, yes, of course - but for a while we can keep up the pretense of Oregon being this horrible team by one measure and this good team by another. This is essentially what already has happened, I'm guessing; Stanford's loss to Oregon isn't that big a deal, because they trounced Notre Dame! Or something like that.

14
by Enjoy_Life :: Sat, 10/23/2010 - 12:09pm

How do turnovers affect the OFEI? Since the drive ends before it should have, this results in fewer yards which would be reflected in the OFEI? Other impacts?