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10 Nov 2010

FEI: Week 10 Ratings

by Brian Fremeau

The wild and crazy 2010 college football season hasn't played out quite as wild and crazy as we imagined it might a month ago. After No. 1 teams were taken down in consecutive weeks, Auburn and Oregon appear to have solidified their sports atop the BCS standings, and FEI agrees. The current FEI ratings don't look much like our preseason projections -- and there has been a bit of jostling week to week in the Top 10 -- but 10 of this week's FEI top 12 were among the same lofty group back in Week 6. Perhaps the season has finally settled down.

LSU, TCU, Stanford, and Arkansas made the biggest and most positive statements on Saturday. Their victims -- Alabama, Utah, Arizona, and South Carolina -- all tumbled to varying degrees. The Crimson Tide are the nation's top-ranked two-loss team and remain in the FEI Top 10.

With regard to the BCS, four undefeated teams remain, and FEI gives them all a better-than 50 percent chance of remaining unscathed through the regular season. TCU (96.8 percent likelihood of remaining undefeated) and Boise State (82.0 percent) are great bets to run the table and appear unstoppable along the way. Oregon (66.0 percent) and Auburn (50.2 percent) have a few more pitfalls to negotiate.

Three and Out

Week 3: Three-and-outs, Available Yards, and Explosive Drives
Week 4: Reaching the Red Zone, Methodical Drives, and Late and Close Efficiency
Week 5: Converting 10+ Yard Drives Into Scores, Points Per Possession, and Scoring After Three-and-outs
Week 6: Yards Per TD Drive, Playing With 2- or 3-Score Lead, Third Downs Per First Down Series
Week 7: FEI Team Resumes for South Carolina, Arizona State, and Utah
Week 8: FEI Team Resumes for Oregon, Wisconsin, and Georgia
Week 9: FEI Team Resumes for Iowa, Miami, and Baylor

In the tables below, the Game Efficiency, Offensive FEI, Defensive FEI, and "Game" FEI (GFEI) for each team in each game is provided. The ranking of those individual unit and game performances is also provided. Note that there have been 500 FBS vs. FBS game played to date, meaning that there have been 1,000 individual game performances for each category.

The opponent FEI ranking is also provided, as well as a general relevance factor for the particular GFEI, OFEI, and DFEI results for that team in that game. As stated in the FEI principles, my system rewards playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punishes losing to poor teams more harshly than it rewards defeating poor teams. In the formula, the relevance factor is partly a function of the relative ratings of the two teams. Across all games, the least relevant results receive about one-eighth as much weight as the most relevant results. For simplicity, I've generalized the relevance data here into three equally distributed categories, High, Med, and Low.

No. 11 Arkansas Razorbacks (6-2)
Date Wk Opponent Result Opp
FEI
Opp
OFEI
Opp
DFEI
GE GE
Rk
FPA FPA
Rk
OFEI OFEI
Rk
DFEI DFEI
Rk
GFEI GFEI
Rk
Relevance
9/11 2 Louisiana Monroe W 31-7 96 84 52 .221 232 .597 114 .035 596 -.201 261 -.093 620 Low
9/18 3 at Georgia W 31-24 34 41 40 .083 349 .503 487 .841 177 .036 395 .364 104 Med
9/25 4 Alabama L 20-24 8 7 18 -.06 607 .425 815 1.072 101 -.657 90 .344 122 High
10/9 6 vs. Texas A&M W 24-17 31 39 7 .065 389 .538 334 .795 197 -.649 95 .285 175 Med
10/16 7 at Auburn L 43-65 1 2 13 -.251 797 .31 995 2.341 4 -.731 70 .440 58 Med
10/23 8 Mississippi W 38-24 52 62 38 .138 298 .487 546 .731 226 -.165 277 .103 358 Low
10/30 9 Vanderbilt W 49-14 97 111 57 .476 71 .634 48 .860 167 .609 731 .154 309 Low
11/6 10 at South Carolina W 41-20 23 5 32 .492 63 .594 125 1.324 57 -1.138 14 .848 1 Med

If we had a 16-team playoff in college football, would the SEC West claim the first three at-large bids and the No. 1 overall seed? The Razorbacks join Auburn, LSU, and Alabama in this week's FEI top 11 following a dominant road victory over South Carolina. For now, that result ranks as the best single game opponent adjusted victory of the year in college football (narrowly edging out TCU's victory over Utah last weekend). They'll close out the season with tough games against Mississippi State and LSU, but dominant victories in the last few weeks have Arkansas poised to finish strong.

No. 22 Michigan State Spartans (8-1)
Date Wk Opponent Result Opp
FEI
Opp
OFEI
Opp
DFEI
GE GE
Rk
FPA FPA
Rk
OFEI OFEI
Rk
DFEI DFEI
Rk
GFEI GFEI
Rk
Relevance
9/4 1 Western Michigan W 38-14 77 96 82 .245 208 .440 759 .449 364 .070 415 .045 440 Low
9/11 2 Florida Atlantic W 30-17 83 82 41 .186 261 .559 245 .475 354 .396 615 -.046 560 Low
9/18 3 Notre Dame W 34-31 51 56 50 .032 454 .476 603 .554 317 .167 481 .000 497 Med
10/2 5 Wisconsin W 34-24 16 4 37 .130 306 .553 269 .750 216 -1.068 20 .432 63 High
10/9 6 at Michigan W 34-17 41 1 109 .243 210 .473 622 .477 353 -1.488 6 .470 46 Med
10/16 7 Illinois W 26-6 32 67 19 .195 250 .508 472 .685 253 -.650 94 .343 127 High
10/23 8 at Northwestern W 35-27 71 50 102 .088 345 .482 576 -.023 622 -.079 333 .085 380 Med
10/30 9 at Iowa L 6-37 9 26 9 -.466 925 .351 973 .513 334 .265 541 .041 446 Med
11/6 10 Minnesota W 31-8 95 63 98 .387 103 .522 408 .075 583 -.399 176 .074 396 Low

Before getting blown out on the road at Iowa, I was touting the Spartans as one of the most likely teams to run the table in the second half of the season. Weeks 5 through 7 (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Illinois) will rank among the strongest three-game stretches in college football, but squeakers against unremarkable Notre Dame and Northwestern squads are relevant as well. Remaining games against Purdue and Penn State won't likely bolster MSU's FEI rating too significantly, but Sparty should be victorious in both contests.

No. 59 Texas Longhorns (4-5)
Date Wk Opponent Result Opp
FEI
Opp
OFEI
Opp
DFEI
GE GE
Rk
FPA FPA
Rk
OFEI OFEI
Rk
DFEI DFEI
Rk
GFEI GFEI
Rk
Relevance
9/4 1 at Rice W 34-17 113 94 116 .298 164 .620 70 -.780 913 .126 450 -.106 638 Low
9/11 2 Wyoming W 34-7 108 102 115 .301 156 .547 298 -.605 873 .159 476 -.163 703 Low
9/18 3 at Texas Tech W 24-14 53 45 46 .102 332 .563 228 -.197 717 -.768 53 .208 243 High
9/25 4 UCLA L 12-34 70 91 67 -.242 787 .403 889 -.540 857 .486 664 -.388 903 High
10/2 5 vs. Oklahoma L 20-28 18 18 20 -.085 653 .477 598 .689 249 -.453 158 .269 189 Med
10/16 7 at Nebraska W 20-13 5 8 12 .083 351 .491 533 .829 182 -1.624 1 .643 13 High
10/23 8 Iowa State L 21-28 76 74 103 -.071 626 .515 440 -.801 915 .324 575 -.270 816 High
10/30 9 Baylor L 22-30 60 31 112 -.099 664 .536 340 -.977 950 .205 504 -.171 714 High
11/6 10 at Kansas State L 14-39 40 40 70 -.506 947 .314 994 -1.113 968 -.096 319 -.273 819 Med

After losing three-straight games, against Iowa State, Baylor, and Kansas State, it shouldn't be surprising to find Texas languishing among teams such as Hawaii, Troy, Army, and Tulsa in the middle of the FEI rankings. It seems impossible, however, to understand how this team managed to beat Nebraska in the middle of its skid. The defensive effort against the Cornhuskers ranks as the No. 1 opponent-adjusted defensive effort of the college football season, 160 percent better an average defense would have been expected to perform. Texas has a good defense. The offense, on the other hand, ranks ahead of only three BCS conference teams in OFEI -- Purdue, Rutgers, and Vanderbilt.

If you have a suggestion for an FEI team resume you'd like to see, drop me a line on Twitter or in the comment section here. I'm happy to answer data inquiries or provide team resume tables for bloggers interested in investigating the data themselves.

FEI Week 10 Top 25

The principles of the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) can be found here. FEI rewards playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punishes losing to poor teams more harshly than it rewards defeating poor teams. FEI is drive-based, not play-by-play based, and it is specifically engineered to measure the college game.

FEI is the opponent-adjusted value of Game Efficiency (GE), a measurement of the success rate of a team scoring and preventing opponent scoring throughout the non-garbage-time possessions of a game. FEI represents a team's efficiency value over average. Strength of Schedule (SOS) is calculated as the likelihood that an elite team (two standard deviations above average) would win every game on the given team's schedule to date. SOS listed here does not include future games scheduled.

Mean Wins (FBS MW) represent the average total games a team with the given FEI rating should expect to win against its complete schedule of FBS opponents. Remaining Mean Wins (FBS RW) represent the average expected team wins for games scheduled but not yet played.

Offensive FEI (OFEI) and Defensive FEI (DFEI) are the opponent-adjusted ratings of all non-garbage-time drives from scrimmage. Field Position Advantage (FPA) is the share of the value of total starting field position for the season earned by each team against its opponents. Field Goal Efficiency (FGE) is the point value per field goal attempt earned by the field goal unit.

Only games between FBS teams are considered in the FEI calculations. The FEI ratings published here are a function of the results of games played through November 6.

FEI ratings for all 120 FBS teams are listed in the stats page section of FootballOutsiders.com. Click here for current ratings; the pull-down menu in the stats section directs you to 2007 through 2009 ratings. There are also now separate pages for offensive and defensive FEI ratings for 2010.

Rk Team FBS
Rec
FEI LW
Rk
GE GE
Rk
SOS SOS
Rk
FBS
MW
FBS
RW
OFEI OFEI
Rk
DFEI DFEI
Rk
FPA FPA
Rk
FGE FGE
Rk
1 Auburn 9-0 .314 1 .169 14 .192 16 9.4 1.6 .762 2 -.446 13 .524 35 .134 49
2 Oregon 8-0 .267 2 .307 4 .414 69 9.7 2.6 .373 15 -.454 11 .553 8 .628 8
3 LSU 7-1 .264 6 .079 36 .111 2 8.6 2.5 .261 27 -.380 17 .577 1 .596 9
4 TCU 9-0 .249 12 .385 2 .628 102 10.3 2.0 .347 20 -.503 6 .571 3 .584 12
5 Nebraska 7-1 .247 3 .212 10 .399 65 9.6 2.7 .446 8 -.452 12 .523 36 .759 6
6 Stanford 7-1 .247 11 .280 5 .327 47 9.3 2.6 .383 13 -.311 26 .550 10 .324 33
7 Boise State 8-0 .243 4 .449 1 .539 90 11.0 3.7 .394 11 -.458 10 .534 23 .171 46
8 Alabama 7-2 .242 7 .252 7 .177 14 8.4 1.2 .465 7 -.376 18 .558 4 .131 51
9 Iowa 6-2 .221 5 .205 11 .425 70 9.2 2.5 .293 26 -.480 9 .528 27 -.001 64
10 Virginia Tech 7-1 .220 8 .252 8 .351 56 8.7 2.1 .466 6 -.307 27 .554 6 .436 21
11 Arkansas 6-2 .217 26 .125 19 .111 3 7.7 2.0 .643 3 -.389 16 .505 61 .835 3
12 Ohio State 8-1 .205 15 .350 3 .366 59 9.7 2.1 .369 16 -.399 15 .548 12 -.072 70
Rk Team FBS
Rec
FEI LW
Rk
GE GE
Rk
SOS SOS
Rk
FBS
MW
FBS
RW
OFEI OFEI
Rk
DFEI DFEI
Rk
FPA FPA
Rk
FGE FGE
Rk
13 Missouri 6-2 .204 9 .126 18 .264 33 8.8 2.8 .303 24 -.512 4 .512 52 .403 26
14 Miami 5-3 .201 18 .046 50 .210 21 7.8 2.1 .259 28 -.605 1 .488 78 .256 40
15 North Carolina State 5-3 .190 16 .076 39 .310 44 8.0 2.2 .117 43 -.440 14 .525 32 -.142 81
16 Wisconsin 7-1 .190 13 .165 15 .298 42 8.8 2.6 .591 4 -.157 37 .533 24 .424 23
17 Oklahoma State 8-1 .182 25 .178 12 .459 77 9.7 2.4 .348 19 -.334 22 .506 60 .735 7
18 Oklahoma 7-2 .179 14 .128 17 .357 57 9.1 2.1 .361 18 -.361 20 .522 39 .010 62
19 Pittsburgh 4-3 .169 20 .108 27 .464 79 8.1 3.1 .211 33 -.213 33 .537 16 .008 63
20 Clemson 4-4 .169 27 .048 49 .126 5 7.2 2.2 .173 37 -.508 5 .507 59 -.793 112
21 Mississippi State 6-2 .154 23 .121 22 .151 9 6.6 1.5 -.010 60 -.584 2 .531 26 -.089 76
22 Michigan State 8-1 .151 22 .112 24 .335 50 8.3 1.7 .197 35 -.485 8 .484 81 .588 10
23 South Carolina 5-3 .144 10 .078 37 .127 6 6.6 1.7 .503 5 -.216 32 .512 53 -.501 99
24 North Carolina 5-3 .143 31 .030 56 .209 20 6.5 1.7 .308 23 -.333 23 .451 110 .302 36
25 USC 6-3 .140 21 .124 20 .288 38 9.2 2.5 .420 9 .104 77 .557 5 -.928 116

Posted by: Brian Fremeau on 10 Nov 2010

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