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19 Sep 2012

FEI Week 3: Mean Wins Update

by Brian Fremeau

The third weekend of the college football season showcased a few more surprises, highlighted by Stanford's victory over USC and impressive road victories from Florida and Notre Dame. The Gators, Irish, and Cardinal are all in this week's FEI top 10, and though there will certainly be other tough tests in the coming weeks and months, each is well positioned to be part of the national championship discussion throughout the course of the season.

They are all well-positioned in part because none of them have to face Alabama in the regular season. The Crimson Tide obliterated Arkansas 52-0 on Saturday, a lopsided result at least partially attributable to the fragile emotional state of affairs in Fayetteville. But it's also an indicator of how much better Alabama may be than the rest of the nation. The Crimson Tide had the highest FEI projection at the start of the season, and through three games, no team has exceeded its projection in terms of raw game efficiency more than Alabama has.

In the weekly FEI tables published here, I include a couple of columns regarding mean wins. One column represents the average total wins against FBS opponents a team should expect against its entire schedule, and the other represents the average total against its remaining games. Adding the remaining mean wins projection to actual wins already recorded gives us the actual updated projection for the end of the regular season.

Alabama's FBS mean wins projection is now 10.1, up from 9.3 at the start of the year. The Crimson Tide are the only team that had been projected to win more than nine FBS games at the start of the year which also saw their mean wins projection rise over the first three weeks. Boise State has held steady at 9.9 wins. The rest have drifted down, including USC (10.1 preseason, down to 8.5 this week).

The following table represents the five teams that have improved their season win projection most dramatically in the first three weeks of the year, and the five teams that are now projected to fall well short of their preseason outlook according to FEI.

FEI Season Win Projection Top Five Risers
FEI
Rank
Team FBS
W-L
Preseason
Proj MW
Current
Proj MW
Change +/-
51 Northwestern 3-0 3.6 7.2 +3.6
67 Louisiana Monroe 1-1 5.7 9.0 +3.3
34 UCLA 3-0 5.3 8.3 +3.0
32 Arizona 2-0 3.9 6.7 +2.9
6 Notre Dame 3-0 7.2 10.0 +2.8
FEI Season Win Projection Bottom Five Fallers
FEI
Rank
Team FBS
W-L
Preseason
Proj MW
Current
Proj MW
Change +/-
85 Southern Mississippi 0-2 8.1 5.1 -3.0
25 Oklahoma State 1-1 8.3 5.2 -3.1
46 Arkansas 0-2 7.5 4.2 -3.2
103 Navy 0-2 7.6 3.9 -3.7
98 Houston 0-3 9.5 4.3 -5.2

Not every team has experienced a significant change in its mean wins projection through the first part of the season, but there has been plenty of shifting. Half of all teams have had a projection shift of less than one game, but the average shift to date in mean wins for all teams is 1.2 games. The chart below illustrates the mean wins adjustment for each team from our preseason FEI projections to date.

Week 3 Revisionist Box Scores

This weekly feature identifies the games played each week that were most impacted by turnovers, special teams, field position, or some combination of the three. The neutralized margin of victory is a function of the point values earned and surrendered based on field position and expected scoring rates.

Week 3 Games In Which Total Turnover Value Exceeded Non-Garbage Final Score Margin
Date Winning Team Non-Garbage
Final Score
Losing Team TTV
+
TTV
-
TTV
Net
TO Neutral
Score Margin
9/13 Rutgers 23-13 South Florida 15.6 3.3 12.3 -2.3
9/15 Connecticut 24-21 Maryland 6.9 3.2 3.7 -0.7
9/15 East Carolina 24-14 Southern Mississippi 13.5 0.0 13.5 -3.5
9/15 Mississippi State 30-24 Troy 12.1 0.0 12.1 -6.1
9/15 Missouri 24-20 Arizona State 16.3 3.5 12.8 -8.8
9/15 Ohio 27-24 Marshall 13.5 3.8 9.7 -6.7
9/15 Utah 24-21 BYU 10.5 0.0 10.5 -7.5
9/15 Western Kentucky 32-31 Kentucky 13.3 3.4 9.9 -8.9

Week 3 Games In Which Special Teams Value Exceeded Non-Garbage Final Score Margin
Date Winning Team Non-Garbage
Final Score
Losing Team STV
+
STV Neutral
Score Margin
9/15 Auburn 31-28 Louisiana Monroe 7.8 -4.8
9/15 Ball State 41-39 Indiana 5.4 -3.4
9/15 Mississippi State 30-24 Troy 7.9 -1.9
9/15 Northern Illinois 41-40 Army 1.7 -0.7
9/15 Utah 24-21 BYU 3.8 -0.8
9/15 Wisconsin 16-14 Utah State 5.7 -3.7

Week 3 Games In Which Field Position Value Exceeded Non-Garbage Final Score Margin
Date Winning Team Non-Garbage
Final Score
Losing Team FPV
+
FPV
-
FPV
Net
FPV Neutral
Score Margin
9/15 Auburn 31-28 Louisiana Monroe 23.6 19.7 3.9 -0.9
9/15 Ball State 41-39 Indiana 29.5 19.6 9.9 -7.9
9/15 Connecticut 24-21 Maryland 31.4 23.1 8.3 -5.3
9/15 Missouri 24-20 Arizona State 33.4 26.5 6.9 -2.9
9/15 Utah 24-21 BYU 31.8 26.5 5.3 -2.3
9/15 Wisconsin 16-14 Utah State 28.9 26.6 2.3 -0.3

2012 totals to date:

  • Net Total Turnover Value was the difference in 22 of 133 FBS games (16.5 percent)
  • Net Special Teams Value was the difference in 12 of 133 FBS games (9.0 percent)
  • Net Field Position Value was the difference in 17 of 133 FBS games (12.8 percent)
  • Turnovers, Special Teams and/or Field Position was the difference in 31 of 133 FBS games (23.3 percent)

2012 Game Splits for all teams, including the offensive, defensive, special teams, field position, and turnover values recorded in each FBS game are provided here.

FEI Week 3 Top 25

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) rewards playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punishes losing to poor teams more harshly than it rewards defeating poor teams. FEI is drive-based and it is specifically engineered to measure the college game.

FEI is the opponent-adjusted value of Game Efficiency (GE), a measurement of the success rate of a team scoring and preventing opponent scoring throughout the non-garbage-time possessions of a game. FEI represents a team's efficiency value over average. Strength of Schedule (SOS) is calculated as the likelihood that an "elite team" (two standard deviations above average) would win every game on the given team's schedule. SOS listed here includes future games scheduled.

Mean Wins (FBS MW) represent the average total games a team with the given FEI rating should expect to win against its complete schedule of FBS opponents. Remaining Mean Wins (FBS RMW) represent the average expected team wins for games scheduled but not yet played.

Offensive Efficiency (OE) is the raw unadjusted efficiency of the given team's offense, a measure of its actual drive success against expected drive success based on field position. Defensive Efficiency (DE) is the raw unadjusted efficiency of the given team's defense, a measure of the actual drive success of its opponents against expected drive success based on field position. Field Position Advantage (FPA) is the share of the value of total starting field position earned by each team against its opponents.

Only games between FBS teams are considered in the FEI calculations. Since limited data is available in the early part of the season, preseason projections are factored into the current ratings. The weight given to projected data will be reduced each week until Week 7, when it will be eliminated entirely. Opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive FEI ratings will also debut in Week 7.

These FEI ratings are a function of results of games played through September 15. The ratings for all FBS teams can be found here.

Rank Team FBS
W-L
FEI Last
Wk
GE GE
Rk
SOS SOS
Rk
FBS
MW
FBS
RMW
OE OE
Rk
DE DE
Rk
FPA FPA
Rk
1 Alabama 3-0 .324 1 .458 5 .188 51 10.0 7.1 .308 31 -1.178 2 .647 3
2 Oklahoma 1-0 .291 2 .187 22 .047 7 8.6 7.6 .027 54 -.874 5 .494 62
3 Florida State 1-0 .275 10 .494 4 .174 47 8.3 7.3 .382 26 -1.368 1 .664 1
4 Florida 3-0 .266 8 .133 36 .072 17 8.5 6.1 .081 45 -.139 46 .533 38
5 LSU 3-0 .259 3 .429 7 .088 24 8.7 5.8 .525 19 -.851 6 .628 4
6 Notre Dame 3-0 .257 9 .227 15 .076 18 9.5 7.0 .293 32 -.661 14 .546 30
7 West Virginia 1-0 .245 6 .500 3 .065 15 8.1 7.1 2.334 1 -.088 53 .556 25
8 Oregon 2-0 .231 14 .350 10 .202 52 9.0 7.0 .898 10 -.535 25 .487 69
9 Texas 3-0 .221 21 .418 9 .058 10 8.6 5.7 1.148 4 -.061 59 .611 6
10 Stanford 3-0 .220 20 .187 23 .116 35 9.2 6.6 -.045 64 -.650 16 .593 8
11 Georgia 3-0 .219 4 .307 12 .174 48 8.6 5.9 .484 21 -.535 26 .588 10
12 Texas Tech 2-0 .217 19 .625 2 .062 13 7.5 5.5 1.921 2 -.325 37 .573 20
Rank Team FBS
W-L
FEI Last
Wk
GE GE
Rk
SOS SOS
Rk
FBS
MW
FBS
RMW
OE OE
Rk
DE DE
Rk
FPA FPA
Rk
13 Kansas State 2-0 .213 16 .441 6 .044 4 7.2 5.3 1.121 5 -.428 30 .579 15
14 TCU 1-0 .211 23 .200 19 .058 11 7.3 6.3 -.042 63 -.764 10 .587 11
15 USC 2-1 .210 7 .193 20 .114 33 8.8 6.5 .116 43 -.352 35 .561 24
16 Cincinnati 1-0 .210 18 .421 8 .318 73 8.0 7.2 1.059 7 -.993 3 .473 80
17 South Carolina 3-0 .203 15 .294 13 .079 19 7.6 4.8 .202 38 -.911 4 .506 53
18 Clemson 2-0 .192 13 .218 17 .161 44 7.9 6.1 .749 13 -.158 44 .514 47
19 Georgia Tech 1-1 .190 25 .223 16 .154 42 8.0 6.5 .379 27 -.546 24 .482 75
20 Ohio State 3-0 .186 5 .179 25 .314 72 9.6 6.9 .348 28 -.191 42 .512 50
21 Michigan State 2-1 .178 11 .097 43 .246 59 9.0 7.0 -.151 74 -.709 12 .476 78
22 Virginia Tech 1-1 .173 12 -.086 77 .101 28 7.0 5.9 -.536 105 -.007 67 .520 42
23 Rutgers 2-0 .172 42 .128 39 .245 58 8.3 6.8 -.130 70 -.623 18 .575 18
24 Boise State 1-1 .153 30 .173 26 .463 95 10.2 8.9 .117 42 -.428 29 .539 33
25 Oklahoma State 1-1 .148 28 .131 37 .045 6 5.7 4.2 .843 11 .157 78 .445 91

Posted by: Brian Fremeau on 19 Sep 2012

1 comment, Last at 08 Dec 2012, 3:20am by john123456

Comments

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