by Brian Fremeau

What does it really mean for a team to be "back"? I tweeted somewhat facetiously earlier this week that we should expand our definition of that phrase. It is reserved only for once-proud programs reclaiming a position near the top of the polls. If Nebraska or Michigan win the Big Ten, they might be considered to be back. If Northwestern or Purdue wins the Big Ten, they cannot be considered to be back, since neither program has a history of elite success to return to.

On the other hand, we could expand the definition of "back" to mean something more like returning to a program’s traditional state. If a team with a relatively mediocre history has had a recent run of great success, can that team be considered back if it slides back into mediocrity?

I’m probably going to regret calling out any particular program here, but is Wisconsin back? The Badgers rank 47th on the list of all-time FBS closed set winning percentage, and though it is still early this year, Wisconsin appears to be a team that will struggle once conference play begins. FEI projects only 4.3 mean wins in Big Ten play for the Badgers, which will safely position them with a bowl bid, but is a far cry from back-to-back Rose Bowls and double-digit winning seasons in Madison of late.

We could come up with any number of candidates for this conversation (Missouri and Virginia Tech come to mind) but it is silly, isn't it? Of course, we can't put a nail in the coffin of Wisconsin’s recent success just because of a few games early on this year. It is equally silly to characterize Florida State and Notre Dame as back on the strength of only a few games as well.

I say that to pump the brakes on what may very well be an overreaction to the current FEI ratings posted below. The Seminoles jumped up to No. 1 and the Irish jumped up to No. 3 after wins last weekend, and both teams are projected to finish the year strong. But all the same caveats apply. Preseason data is still a part of the FEI formula this week, roughly accounting for 45 percent of each team’s rating. And even if FEI is right and Florida State and Notre Dame have 10- or 11- or 12-win seasons, it will still take multiple seasons of that kind of success to fully reclaim their status as elite programs. There’s no such thing as "back" after four weeks.

Week 4 Revisionist Box Scores

This weekly feature identifies the games played each week that were most impacted by turnovers, special teams, field position, or some combination of the three. The neutralized margin of victory is a function of the point values earned and surrendered based on field position and expected scoring rates.

2012 totals to date:

• Net Total Turnover Value was the difference in 32 of 182 FBS games (17.6 percent)
• Net Special Teams Value was the difference in 14 of 182 FBS games (7.7 percent)
• Net Field Position Value was the difference in 21 of 182 FBS games (11.5 percent)
• Turnovers, Special Teams and/or Field Position was the difference in 43 of 182 FBS games (23.6 percent)

2012 Game Splits for all teams, including the offensive, defensive, special teams, field position, and turnover values recorded in each FBS game are provided here.

FEI Week 4 Top 25

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) rewards playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punishes losing to poor teams more harshly than it rewards defeating poor teams. FEI is drive-based and it is specifically engineered to measure the college game.

FEI is the opponent-adjusted value of Game Efficiency (GE), a measurement of the success rate of a team scoring and preventing opponent scoring throughout the non-garbage-time possessions of a game. FEI represents a team's efficiency value over average. Strength of Schedule (SOS) is calculated as the likelihood that an "elite team" (two standard deviations above average) would win every game on the given team's schedule. SOS listed here includes future games scheduled.

Mean Wins (FBS MW) represent the average total games a team with the given FEI rating should expect to win against its complete schedule of FBS opponents. Remaining Mean Wins (FBS RMW) represent the average expected team wins for games scheduled but not yet played.

Offensive Efficiency (OE) is the raw unadjusted efficiency of the given team's offense, a measure of its actual drive success against expected drive success based on field position. Defensive Efficiency (DE) is the raw unadjusted efficiency of the given team's defense, a measure of the actual drive success of its opponents against expected drive success based on field position. Field Position Advantage (FPA) is the share of the value of total starting field position earned by each team against its opponents.

Only games between FBS teams are considered in the FEI calculations. Since limited data is available in the early part of the season, preseason projections are factored into the current ratings. The weight given to projected data will be reduced each week until Week 7, when it will be eliminated entirely. Opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive FEI ratings will also debut in Week 7.

These FEI ratings are a function of results of games played through September 22. The ratings for all FBS teams can be found here.

Posted by: Brian Fremeau on 25 Sep 2012

6 comments, Last at 27 Sep 2012, 1:50pm by tsmonk