by Brian Fremeau

The BCS title race appears destined to be as competitive as ever. Florida, Kansas State, Oregon, and Notre Dame will all be jockeying (and lobbying) for position as long as they keep winning, and each may have a compelling argument that they are indeed the second-best team in the country behind Alabama. Personally, I’m wondering if Kansas State hasn’t already distinguished itself as the nation’s best team.

Kansas State thrashed West Virginia in Morgantown this past weekend. The 55-14 victory (45-7 in 14 non-garbage time possessions) ranks as the second-most efficient game of the year and the clear No. 1 game in terms of opponent-adjusted efficiency. Kansas State also owns the fourth-best game in terms of opponent-adjusted game efficiency, a victory on the road against Oklahoma back on September 22nd.

Kansas State can certainly still lose, but the Wildcats have already passed their biggest tests of the year. And unless Oklahoma and West Virginia tank the rest of the season, those two victories are likely to remain two of the best of the year. We’ve had a change in the No. 1 FEI ranking almost on a weekly basis this year, but Kansas State is a good bet to stay on top.

FEI Mailbag

I generally try to respond directly to questions sent via email, but from time to time the question prompts a more in-depth response suitable for the weekly column. If you have a question about possession efficiency data, let me know.

From David Hudson (@okc_dave) who also writes for the Oklahoma State Cowboys blog Pistols Firing:

"I noticed that OSU is 112th in kickoff efficiency. I didn’t expect OSU to be highly ranked because they allowed a KO return for a touchdown against Texas, but considering that 41 out of 49 OSU kickoffs have gone for touchbacks, it seems like they should be more middle-of-the-pack. But then I wondered if touchbacks are now “bad” compared to kicking it a couple yards deep and having a team return it shy of the 25. What has been the average starting position this year?"

I wrote a little bit about the new kickoff rules earlier this year, but I think it is time to revisit the data. Dave raises a few interesting questions, and his inquiry got me thinking about a few other questions as well.

Are touchbacks bad (for the kicking team)? No, they certainly are not. The average starting field position following a kickoff this season is the 26-yard line. A touchback is placed one yard shy of that average at the 25-yard line, so it is a positive play for the kicking team, albeit barely. And if a team can effectively boot the ball through the end zone, it removes the possibility of a touchdown return entirely.

That said, though touchbacks aren't bad, they were a more effective play in terms of net value a year ago. The average starting field position following a kickoff in 2011 was the 28-yard line and touchbacks were placed at the 20-yard line, eight yards better than average for the kicking team.

The frequency of touchbacks has nearly doubled from 2011 to 2012, as illustrated in the chart. The distribution of starting field position is a bit more narrow this year as well. The spikes at the 40-yard line in the 2011 data and the 35-yard line in the 2012 data are due to where the ball has been placed following a kickoff out of bounds in each season. Touchdown returns have been consistent from 2011 to 2012, occurring on 0.8 percent of kickoffs in each season.

Let's get back to Dave's question about Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have recorded touchbacks on 41-of-49 kickoffs this season (83.7 percent), the second-best rate nationally. I don't consider FCS game data in my special teams measures, but that only takes Oklahoma State's touchback rate down to 30-of-36 (83.3 percent). So why are they ranking so low in kickoff efficiency?

According to my data, 33 Oklahoma State kickoffs occurred in non-garbage situations, and the Cowboys kept their opponent short of average starting field position on 30 of those 33 kickoffs. The total scoring value added due to field position on those 30 kicks was only 6.1 points, or about 0.2 points per kick. The total value lost on the other three kicks was 7.1 points. Those three kicks included a touchdown return by Texas (5.6 points), a failed onside kick attempt against Arizona that resulted in a Wildcats possession on the Oklahoma State 44-yard line (1.3 points), and a Kansas kickoff return to their own 35-yard line (0.2 points).

The damage of one kickoff return surrendered is huge compared with the incremental value of consistently good kickoff coverage and touchbacks. Oklahoma State is nearly net-neutral on the season, but there are still 94 other FBS teams that have not given up a kickoff return touchdown. Almost all of them will be very difficult for the Cowboys to surpass due to that one miscue.

Week 8 Revisionist Box Scores

This weekly feature identifies the games played each week that were most impacted by turnovers, special teams, field position, or some combination of the three. The neutralized margin of victory is a function of the point values earned and surrendered based on field position and expected scoring rates.

2012 totals to date:

• Net Total Turnover Value was the difference in 65 of 397 FBS games (16.4 percent)
• Net Special Teams Value was the difference in 32 of 397 FBS games (8.1 percent)
• Net Field Position Value was the difference in 40 of 397 FBS games (10.1 percent)
• Turnovers, Special Teams and/or Field Position was the difference in 91 of 397 FBS games (22.9 percent)

2012 Game Splits for all teams, including the offensive, defensive, special teams, field position, and turnover values recorded in each FBS game are provided here.

FEI Week 8 Top 25

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) rewards playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punishes losing to poor teams more harshly than it rewards defeating poor teams. FEI is drive-based and it is specifically engineered to measure the college game. FEI is the opponent-adjusted value of Game Efficiency (GE), a measurement of the success rate of a team scoring and preventing opponent scoring throughout the non-garbage-time possessions of a game. FEI represents a team's efficiency value over average.

Other definitions:

• SOS Pvs: Strength of schedule to date, based on the likelihood of an elite team going undefeated against the given team's schedule to date.
• SOS Fut: Strength of schedule, based on the likelihood of an elite team going undefeated against the given team's remaining schedule.
• FBS MW: Mean Wins, the average number of games a team with the given FEI rating would be expected to win against its entire schedule.
• FBS RMW: Remaining Mean Wins, the average number of games a team with the given FEI rating would be expected to win against its remaining schedule.
• OFEI: Offensive FEI, the opponent-adjusted efficiency of the given team's offense.
• DFEI: Defensive FEI, the opponent-adjusted efficiency of the given team's defense.
• STE: Special Teams Efficiency, the scoring value earned by field goal, punt and kickoff units measured in points per average game.
• FPA: Field Position Advantage, the share of the value of total starting field position earned by each team against its opponents.

These FEI ratings are a function of results of games played through October 20. The ratings for all FBS teams, including FEI splits for Offense, Defense, and Special Teams can be found here. Program FEI (five-year weighted) ratings and other supplemental drive-based data can be found here.

Posted by: Brian Fremeau on 24 Oct 2012

9 comments, Last at 25 Oct 2012, 1:44pm by Brian Fremeau