Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

Most Recent FO Features

GurleyTod16.jpg

» OFI: SEC Surprises

In an opening week where even the elite teams in college football looked mortal, the SEC had two big surprises in Texas A&M and Georgia defeating their South Carolinian opponents by big scores.

07 Nov 2013

FEI Week 10: Seminole Efficiency

by Brian Fremeau

The Florida State Seminoles whipped Miami by a final score of 41-14 on Saturday night, their sixth FBS victory of the season by at least 27 points. Three of those games rank among the seven best performances of the season according to opponent-adjusted game efficiency. As a result, FSU vaulted to the top of this week’s FEI ratings.

We introduced Game Factors last week, the guts of each team’s current FEI rating. Game Factors are the opponent-adjusted offense, defense, and overall team efficiency data for each team in each game, plus the relevance of each data point. In Florida State’s case, their three top wins over Pittsburgh, Clemson, and Miami are worth 57.1 percent of the Seminoles' overall FEI rating.

These three games are ranked in the 99th percentile of all overall opponent-adjusted team performances played in FBS games so far this year, and it doesn’t have anything to do with over-inflating the opponents themselves. Miami ranks No. 21 in this week’s FEI ratings. Clemson ranks No. 30. Pittsburgh ranks No. 51. If the strength of those opponents according to FEI improves over the final weeks of the season, Florida State’s profile will be impacted as well.

What makes the dominant wins over these three opponents so special? It is all about efficiency.

Florida State took a 41-13 lead against Pittsburgh only 15 non-garbage possessions into their game back on September 2. The Seminoles punted on their first drive, then scored on each of their other seven non-garbage drives. In their eight non-garbage possessions, Florida State earned 448 out of a possible 508 total yards in terms of starting field position, 88.2 percent of available yards. Pittsburgh had only earned 43.6 percent of available yards at the same point in the game.

It was a similarly dominant and efficient performance in the blowout victory over Clemson on October 19. Florida State took a 41-7 lead against the Tigers on only 19 non-garbage possessions. The Seminoles defense scored on a fumble return, and on Florida State’s nine other non-garbage possessions, the offense chipped in six scores. Florida State earned 67.5 percent of available yards and allowed only 34.2 percent of available yards in non-garbage time.

Both of those games rank among the top 50 in raw game efficiency. They are the only two top-50 GE games played this season that came against opponents ranked among the top 60 in FEI. The other 48 games came against opponents with an average ranking of 104th in FEI.

Of the top-100 GE games played so far this season, Florida State’s wins over Clemson and Pittsburgh are among only five that came against top-60 FEI opponents (the others were Washington over FEI No. 43 Boise State, Michigan over FEI No. 55 Minnesota, and Indiana over FEI No. 60 Bowling Green).

Only ten of the top-150 GE games played so far this season came against opponents ranked in the top 60 of the FEI ratings. That list includes Florida State’s victory this weekend over Miami. Of those ten victories, the Seminoles have three of them. Alabama, Stanford, Washington, Texas A&M, Missouri, Michigan, and Indiana have one each.

FEI ranks Florida State as the nation’s best team because no other team to date has had single game opponent-adjusted performances nearly as impressive as the collection of wins over Clemson, Miami and Pittsburgh. Alabama, LSU, Oregon, Stanford, Baylor and others all have big opportunities to match those victories this weekend and in games down the stretch.

FEI Week 10 Top 25

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) rewards playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punishes losing to poor teams more harshly than it rewards defeating poor teams. FEI is drive-based and it is specifically engineered to measure the college game. FEI is the opponent-adjusted value of Game Efficiency (GE), a measurement of the success rate of a team scoring and preventing opponent scoring throughout the non-garbage-time possessions of a game. FEI represents a team's efficiency value over average.

Other definitions:

  • SOS Pvs: Strength of schedule based on the likelihood of an elite team going undefeated against the given team's schedule to date.
  • SOS Fut: Strength of schedule based on the likelihood of an elite team going undefeated against the given team's remaining schedule.
  • FBS MW: Mean Wins, the average number of games a team with the given FEI rating would be expected to win against its entire schedule.
  • FBS RMW: Remaining Mean Wins, the average number of games a team with the given FEI rating would be expected to win against its remaining schedule.
  • OFEI: Offensive FEI, the opponent-adjusted efficiency of the given team's offense.
  • DFEI: Defensive FEI, the opponent-adjusted efficiency of the given team's defense.
  • STE: Special Teams Efficiency, the composite efficiency of the given team's special teams units - field goals, punt returns, kickoff returns, punts, and kickoffs.
  • FPA: Field Position Advantage, the share of the value of total starting field position earned by each team against its opponents.

These FEI ratings are a function of results of games played through November 2nd. The ratings for all FBS teams can be found here. Program FEI (five-year weighted) ratings and other supplemental drive-based data can be found here.

Rk Team FBS
Rec
FEI LW GE GE
Rk
SOS
Pvs
Rk SOS
Fut
Rk FBS
MW
FBS
RMW
OFEI Rk DFEI Rk STE Rk FPA Rk
1 Florida State 7-0 .312 4 .434 2 .515 81 .763 68 10.3 3.8 .614 8 -.580 8 -.562 81 .533 30
2 Alabama 8-0 .307 1 .403 4 .375 60 .442 28 9.7 2.4 .424 17 -.647 6 7.219 1 .624 1
3 Stanford 7-1 .284 2 .192 12 .232 27 .309 11 9.8 3.0 .249 35 -.799 2 5.046 2 .591 2
4 Oregon 7-0 .279 3 .417 3 .566 95 .208 1 9.2 2.7 .572 10 -.575 9 1.008 42 .553 9
5 Missouri 7-1 .255 5 .197 10 .332 50 .522 35 9.1 2.3 .333 23 -.600 7 -1.222 94 .539 22
6 Baylor 6-0 .244 7 .477 1 .727 109 .426 25 9.6 3.9 .652 5 -.315 24 -1.886 105 .532 31
7 BYU 6-2 .242 6 .111 34 .333 51 .463 30 8.7 2.2 .121 46 -.750 4 -.188 71 .524 36
8 Arizona State 5-2 .239 12 .142 20 .171 13 .342 17 7.8 2.8 .700 3 -.488 12 -.121 66 .532 32
9 LSU 6-2 .222 8 .174 15 .255 33 .269 6 8.1 1.9 .729 2 -.106 49 1.852 21 .523 37
10 Ohio State 8-0 .218 13 .334 6 .655 103 .777 71 9.9 2.6 .628 7 -.233 33 3.669 3 .563 7
11 Utah 3-4 .218 9 -.031 72 .102 5 .309 12 6.8 2.7 .471 15 -.287 28 1.638 28 .490 75
12 South Carolina 7-2 .216 10 .108 36 .180 16 .806 75 8.5 1.6 .577 9 -.430 17 -2.873 117 .464 103
Rk Team FBS
Rec
FEI LW GE GE
Rk
SOS
Pvs
Rk SOS
Fut
Rk FBS
MW
FBS
RMW
OFEI Rk DFEI Rk STE Rk FPA Rk
13 USC 6-3 .216 20 .076 45 .173 15 .504 32 9.8 3.1 .274 29 -.797 3 -.141 68 .527 35
14 Georgia 5-3 .210 17 .020 58 .217 23 .449 29 7.5 2.0 .692 4 -.133 45 .242 60 .458 108
15 Oklahoma State 6-1 .195 21 .139 22 .667 104 .474 31 8.7 2.8 .226 36 -.509 11 -.109 65 .548 11
16 Texas A&M 6-2 .194 15 .195 11 .252 32 .291 9 7.6 2.5 .769 1 .178 89 2.819 9 .573 4
17 Auburn 7-1 .193 14 .123 31 .282 40 .388 21 7.9 1.8 .326 24 -.460 15 1.683 27 .506 60
18 Central Florida 6-1 .190 18 .264 7 .468 73 .854 84 10.3 4.6 .522 13 -.165 41 2.904 8 .547 13
19 Wisconsin 5-2 .184 33 .208 8 .263 34 .630 49 8.1 3.1 .341 21 -.483 13 -.746 87 .508 55
20 Mississippi 4-3 .180 19 .038 54 .090 3 .607 45 6.9 3.1 .315 26 -.461 14 -.141 67 .477 92
21 Miami 6-1 .173 11 .146 19 .221 25 .564 40 7.9 2.8 .534 12 -.022 60 .529 50 .542 18
22 Louisville 6-1 .172 24 .371 5 .731 110 .848 82 9.8 3.5 .434 16 -.303 26 1.330 34 .523 39
23 Michigan State 7-1 .172 34 .189 13 .515 82 .836 80 9.0 2.4 .019 59 -.724 5 .407 55 .573 5
24 Virginia Tech 5-3 .165 16 .016 59 .185 17 .648 53 7.4 2.2 -.088 70 -.923 1 -1.493 98 .485 82
25 Washington 4-3 .158 28 .063 49 .115 6 .550 38 6.9 2.9 .545 11 -.292 27 -.413 76 .468 97

Posted by: Brian Fremeau on 07 Nov 2013

18 comments, Last at 25 Jan 2014, 3:34pm by louis vuitton skor online

Comments

1
by Cynic (not verified) :: Mon, 11/11/2013 - 3:02am

"FEI ranks Florida State as the nation’s best team because no other team to date has had single game opponent-adjusted performances nearly as impressive as the collection of wins over Clemson, Miami and Pittsburgh." I don't get it. Only one of these teams is listed in your top 25 (Miami at #21). Whereas, Alabama has beaten 3 of the top 25 (Texas A&M: 16, Mississippi: 20, Virginia Tech: 24). Please explain.

2
by Brian Fremeau :: Mon, 11/11/2013 - 3:12pm

Opponent-adjusted game efficiency (http://www.bcftoys.com/2013-game-factors/):

6. Alabama vs. Ole Miss
11. Alabama vs. Virginia Tech
18. Alabama vs. Tennessee
22. Alabama vs. Texas A&M

1. Florida State vs. Clemson
3. Florida State vs. Pittsburgh
7. Florida State vs. Miami

As stated in the article, FSU's raw efficiency against those opponents were all top-150 single-game raw efficiency marks and all three came against top-60 FEI opponents. Alabama has five games ranked in the top-150 of raw game efficiency, but only the Ole Miss game came against a top-60 opponent.

3
by http://www.ristoranteginevra.it/Image/ScarpeHogan.html (not verified) :: Thu, 01/09/2014 - 5:49am

de l'autre c? l'Espagnole Assunta,cheuse posture, un poster du Revenge, une chanteuse qui ose se montrer nue, unmanque de fiert

4
by burberry borse (not verified) :: Sat, 01/11/2014 - 12:20am

En histoire-g

5
by Michael Kors Factory Outlet Store (not verified) :: Sat, 01/11/2014 - 1:51am

Chassang,l Feghoul. Da Veiga (56e ) au Maccabi ; Douillard (49e )

6
by Coach Factory Outlet Online Store (not verified) :: Sat, 01/11/2014 - 8:27am

"Il n' y a pas eu de d

7
by Coach Factory Outlet (not verified) :: Sun, 01/12/2014 - 12:18am

-- A voir aussi -- Tour dhorizon en images. en guise de compl

8
by Coach Outlet Online (not verified) :: Sun, 01/12/2014 - 4:17am

ur de m

9
by longchamp (not verified) :: Sun, 01/12/2014 - 10:22am

tat islamique en et au Levant (EIIL) et du Front Al-Nosra, les rebelles tentent de trouver des portes de sortie

10
by Michael Kors Outlet Online (not verified) :: Sun, 01/12/2014 - 6:36pm

Avec sa nouvelle s

11
by duvetica outlet (not verified) :: Sun, 01/12/2014 - 9:18pm

un travail

12
by Michael Kors Outlet Online (not verified) :: Mon, 01/13/2014 - 5:48pm

Les 10% d'Allemands les plus fortun

13
by piumini duvetica (not verified) :: Wed, 01/15/2014 - 7:01am

ce sont ceux qui ont le plus de compassion qui donnent le plus de chance a leur enfant de survivre et d'avoir une "belle" vie, Cela se verifie tres bien dans la nature : la compassion est un sentiment / processus qui n'emerge qu'a partir du moment ou l'enfant demande beaucoup de ressources de la part des parents. selon lui, "Je vous assure, Se pr

14
by longchamp pas cher (not verified) :: Thu, 01/16/2014 - 4:28am

Bravo ! Aulas, Strat

15
by Coach Factory Outlet Store (not verified) :: Sun, 01/19/2014 - 8:14am

La "production Le Mans FC" joue en tout cas les prolongations en rajoutant un ou plusieurs feuilletons

16
by air max pas cher (not verified) :: Wed, 01/22/2014 - 9:41am

volailles, motiv

17
by Coach Outlet Store Online (not verified) :: Sat, 01/25/2014 - 5:48am

Son skipper solitaire, Vincent,possibilit

18
by louis vuitton skor online (not verified) :: Sat, 01/25/2014 - 3:34pm

Betsey Johnson