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29 Oct 2012

Film Room: Cardinals-49ers

by Andy Benoit

Cardinals offense vs. 49ers defense

It almost feels pointless to analyze the Cardinals offense because their pathetic tackles simply don’t allow Ken Whisenhunt’s system to function. J.J. Cooper highlighted the shortcomings of rookie right tackle Bobby Massie a few weeks ago. Since then, the fourth-round rookie has only gotten worse. Massie’s footwork and hand placement are in major need of refinement. On the other side, left tackle D’Anthony Batiste has been nearly as bad. The thought of these two sparring with the likes of Justin Smith, Aldon Smith, and Ahmad Brooks should send chills down Whisenhunt’s spine.

Of course, if poor perimeter pass protection is preventing Whisenhunt from running his system, then Whisenhunt needs to tweak his system. It’s either that or replace the tackles, which is nearly impossible to do in the middle of a season. It’s stunning how willing the Cardinals are to put their overmatched blockers in unfavorable positions. Not only are the tackles frequently left on an island on five-and seven-step drops, but often you’ll see tight ends being asked to handle defensive ends one-on-one in the run game. And it’s not as if the Cardinals have stalwart blockers like Heath Miller or Daniel Graham at tight end. Their starter, veteran Jeff King, lacks raw strength. Their top backup, Rob Housler, is a pass-catching specialist who has only a vague familiarity with line of scrimmage mechanics. The Niners defense has been uncharacteristically vulnerable against the run during its last two games; expect that to change Monday night.

In the air, Kevin Kolb is not Arizona’s long-term answer at quarterback. Late-game "heroics" aside, Kolb still doesn’t have a big-time arm. Plus, as the film showed in the second half against Buffalo, he’s not a consistent anticipation passer even though he’s good at reading the field before the snap. That said, the Cardinals will miss Kolb if a rib injury keeps him out again. The strong-armed John Skelton is too stiff-legged to play behind a bad offensive line. Hence the seven sacks he took against Minnesota.

We got three paragraphs into this without even mentioning Larry Fitzgerald. That’s fitting. Both Cardinals quarterbacks have failed to treat him like a true No. 1 receiver this season. It’s a credit to Fitzgerald that he hasn’t publicly campaigned for balls to be forced his way. With the Niners being a man-based defense, Arizona can pick who they want Fitzgerald to face. They can align him outside to go against Tarell Brown and Chris Culliver, who are both beatable -- everyone is beatable when you’re Fitzgerald -- but those guys will get fantastic safety help. They can align Fitzgerald inside to face Carlos Rogers, who is more challenging but easier to exploit early in the down. "Early in the down" is when all of Arizona’s throws should occur anyway. Otherwise, this will be a sackfest.

49ers offense vs. Cardinals defense

After a loss to the Giants and an ugly ground-oriented win over the Seahawks, there has been some national discussion about whether Jim Harbaugh is trying to limit Alex Smith’s impact on games. Have people not been watching the 49ers closely the past year-and-a-half? Since day one, Harbaugh’s mission has been to limit Smith’s impact. And he’s succeeded, which is why the Niners have won and Smith has finally looked like an adequate NFL starter.

Harbaugh will certainly limit Smith’s impact in this game. He knows Smith processes information slowly, and he knows Smith doesn’t have a strong enough arm to drive the ball through tight windows on third-and-long. Harbaugh also knows that Arizona’s defense is perfectly designed for exploiting slow-thinking quarterbacks. The Cardinals do more second- and third-level blitzes than any team in the league. They’ll challenge a Niners offensive line that is rich in power but somewhat poor in agility. And with Patrick Peterson, they’ll be able to take one of San Francisco’s wideouts out of the equation.

The Niners can work around the Peterson factor. Most of their passing game will likely involve tight ends and running backs anyway. More than ever, the key will be allowing Smith to get the ball out quickly on defined reads: doing so erases the effects of Arizona’s delayed blitzes and hybrid coverages. Typically, the Niners like to take downfield shots on first and second down. Don’t be surprised if they do this less than usual Monday night, as their concerns about avoiding third-and-long against this defense should lead to more called runs.

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e-mail andy@footballoutsiders.com

Posted by: Andy Benoit on 29 Oct 2012

66 comments, Last at 15 May 2013, 5:53am by kevineiffel

Comments

1
by Chill (not verified) :: Mon, 10/29/2012 - 1:05pm

Your comments on Alex are not very on point here. Harbaugh did the exact same thing his entire time at Stanford -unless you are implying that Andrew Luck was a bad college quarterback? This is just who Harbaugh is. Give him a Hall of Fame QB and he would do the same thing. Harbaugh is a very good coach, but he has very definite old-school ideas on offense (which is probably a large part of the reason he was hired, every HC (and OC) the 49ers have hired lately has the same offensive philosophy). The few times Harbaugh has unleashed Alex, the results have been spectacular. You don't have to like Alex, he has many flaws, but yours is obviously a "did not do the research" claim.

3
by Nick Bradley (not verified) :: Mon, 10/29/2012 - 1:12pm

Also, the 49ers have the best running game in a quarter-century, and if you factor out QB rushing yards, probably the best rushing attack since the 1973 bills.

- Why would they air it out? Roman tried to get cute vs. MIN and NYG and came out 2:1 pass:run and lost.

4
by Mood_Indigo (not verified) :: Mon, 10/29/2012 - 1:56pm

I don't think analysts have fully grasped that the league has been slowly moving from being a primarily passing league which it was for most of the last decade to a more balanced one. So the Niners' excellent run game has been overlooked last season and is only being noticed this season.

13
by Michael19531 :: Mon, 10/29/2012 - 5:56pm

I think that you're right. Look at New England's O this season. The last time that I checked, they were leading the NFL in rushing attempts just 1 year after Tom Brady threw 600+ passes for over 5000 yards.

2
by Nick Bradley (not verified) :: Mon, 10/29/2012 - 1:09pm

Arizona is dominant vs. the pass and average vs. the run. The 49ers are historically-great in the run game and slightly above average passing the ball.
- Guess which route Jim Harbaugh is going to take?

Another point: Alex Smith has faced some very good pass defenses, and played either as expected or better vs. all of them except the giants. pass defense DVOAs of teams Smith has faced: 7th, 22nd, 15th, 13th, 28th, 12th, 3rd, and (tonight) 4th.

6
by Karl Cuba :: Mon, 10/29/2012 - 2:31pm

So the average ranking for the pass defenses Smith has faced is 14th, not particularly tough.

12
by Nick Bradley (not verified) :: Mon, 10/29/2012 - 4:35pm

I don't have access to game-by-game DVOA, but I did compare Smith's game-by-game passer rating to the opponent passer rating he faced that day.

And by that metric, he shined. His passer rating was nearly identical to the opponents' passer rating in the MIN, NYJ, and SEA games. Vs. GB and BUF, his QB Rating was far higher than the opponents allowed QB Rating, vs DET it was good, and vs. NYG it was godawful.

5
by Mood_Indigo (not verified) :: Mon, 10/29/2012 - 2:11pm

I agree that the Niners D was "uncharacteristically vulnerable against the run" against the Giants but I'd argue that it was not the case against Seahawks. The Niners D allowed a total of 136 yards at 4.7 average, high by their standards, but Marshawn Lynch is tough to stop for any defense, and he was the only back to have 100 yards against the Niners last season.

7
by Karl Cuba :: Mon, 10/29/2012 - 3:00pm

The niners run D was holding the Giants to 3 yards per carry through the end of the third quarter, then they got tired and also seemed to give up, with no prospect of a shell shocked Alex Smith leading them to any points.

They do get tired sometimes because they rely so much on Smith, Smith, McDonald and Brooks to play the entire game, in contrast to the Bears, who use a full eight or nine man rotation.

8
by Karl Cuba :: Mon, 10/29/2012 - 3:10pm

At some stage the 49ers are going to have to take the bull by the horns and run into loaded fronts. To some extent the effectiveness of the running game has been boosted by the play selection at the line but in the two games they've lost they have let the defense dictate the run-pass balance and got away from their game plan as a result.

I'm not sure I agree with Mr Benoit about attacking Smith with the secondary blitzes, he likes to be blitzed and has consistently shown that he's more effective when he is. It simplifies the decision process, he's much worse when you make him think by playing sound but basic defense.

9
by CK (not verified) :: Mon, 10/29/2012 - 4:19pm

They've often run into loaded fronts. Off the top of my head they did so against the Jets repeatedly, and the Packers, and the Lions not to mention the Seahawks. I agree that it is important for them to do so, but it's not like they haven't done it in the past. I think the Vikings and Giants game plans were more to blame for abandoning the run than anything the defense did to dictate.

11
by Karl Cuba :: Mon, 10/29/2012 - 4:35pm

I disagree. Why are they doing the whole call two plays and pick at the line if that's not what they're doing? I'd love to see some evidence if you have it but the impression I get is that if Smith sees eight or nine in the box then he changes to the pass.

17
by jimbohead :: Tue, 10/30/2012 - 10:28am

Sure! Go watch the all-22 of the first quarter of the Seahawks game. Every run that quarter was into an 8-man front, with Earl Thomas dropping down. And they ran pretty effectively that quarter too.

I think the whole "two plays at the line" thing is exaggerated and simplified. Given what I've seen them run, I strongly suspect that the decision to go from one play to the next (and not necessarily a run to a pass or vice versa) is strictly based on the alignment of the safeties. Unless you're a pro scout, though, I don't think you're going to be able to guess what he's basing his changes on (alignment (line, lbs, safeties), coverage type (press or off), etc).

18
by Karl Cuba :: Tue, 10/30/2012 - 11:13am

OK, I just looked at the 49ers' first drive and every time they got an eight man box they threw the ball (not counting a third and long), apart from one occasion when they ran at an eight man front out of 22 personnel and another where they were running an end around. This does depend on how close to the line you think Earl Thomas has to be to regard him as being 'in the box' and how loaded is a box when you are dealing with a six lineman, two back package?

However, I would say that I never meant to give the impression that I think that the two plays thing is a hard and fast rule, I think it's more of a guide though I do think that the niners sometimes do let themselves get away from their impressive run game when attempting to get out of bad defensive alignments. The niners gave the ball to Frank Gore 12 times in total in the first half of their two losses, that might have been their plan but if it was then it's a crap plan when he averaged five yards per carry.

It's also pretty difficult to get a really accurate look at how the niners might be doing things due to the sheer number of jet sweeps, end arounds, six lineman packages and defensive tackle fullbacks.

19
by jimbohead :: Tue, 10/30/2012 - 12:38pm

Ahhh I really want to re-watch that section of the game, but gamerewind is down here. Probably hurricane related. I'll come back soon though with a link to a blog-post where I go through some screenshots and explain my thinking.

Beyond that, I agree 100% with your 2nd and 3rd paragraphs.

21
by jimbohead :: Tue, 10/30/2012 - 1:52pm

Alright, screen-caps plus comments. You're welcome to disagree, but here's the evidence you were looking for a few posts ago.

http://jimboheadonthenfl.tumblr.com/post/34643622148/49ers-run-game-sf-s...

23
by Karl Cuba :: Tue, 10/30/2012 - 3:44pm

Colour me impressed that you have the skills to put that blog thing together that quickly.

I have to admit that I missed one loaded front as a result of not being able to get the all-22 for all the plays.

Is an eight man box a loaded front against 22 personnel or six linemen (it might be easier to call it one receiver)? In my opinion it isn't because the eighth man is normally a free hitter but in those packages the niners have an extra blocker, so a over loaded run defense would need nine in the box.

From your evidence there are only two runs with the niners in 'regular' personnel, play 2 where the niners ran into a loaded box and play six where they run into a non loaded box. That is a tiny sample but is already enough disprove an absolute statement. I'll happily back away from that. The thing is that they have said that they love the job that Smith does to set them up with the best looks, so what is he doing and why didn't they run more against the Giants and Vikings?

24
by jimbohead :: Tue, 10/30/2012 - 5:32pm

Thanks for the compliment. I was considering it "overloaded" if there was only 1 safety deep. Therefore, if you exchange a WR for a TE, and the def responds by moving the CB in (or exchanging the CB for a LB and bringing that guy in), that puts 8 in the box, but does not overload. Bringing one of the safeties down puts 9 in the box, and therefore overloads, and that's what I saw on most of those plays.

I honestly don't know what happened in the MIN and NYG games. I don't have the fortitude of spirit to re-watch them, just like I don't have the fortitude to rewatch last year's NFCC and the DAL game from last year.

10
by bravehoptoad :: Mon, 10/29/2012 - 4:28pm

I'm not sure I agree with Mr Benoit about attacking Smith with the secondary blitzes, he likes to be blitzed and has consistently shown that he's more effective when he is. It simplifies the decision process, he's much worse when you make him think by playing sound but basic defense.

Exactly. I don't know why Benoit keeps saying this. This site itself has said that Smith has an superior DVOA against the blitz. ESPN has said he has a superior QBR against the blitz. Dumping the ball off is something Smith actually does well. Forcing him to go to a hot read isn't a terribly smart thing to do.

14
by Anonymous guy1 (not verified) :: Tue, 10/30/2012 - 1:26am

Well this game sure went against the grain. Dominant passing the ball, run game not so much. But as always, the Cards stink

15
by greybeard :: Tue, 10/30/2012 - 1:29am

I guess it is time for Mr. Benoit to eat crow.

16
by Karl Cuba :: Tue, 10/30/2012 - 8:42am

I dunno, that was possibly the least impressive 18 of 19 day I'll ever see. What Smith did manage to do most of the game was get the ball out on time. Even the most impressive plays, the two third down conversions to Crabtree (one for a TD), were short passes where Crabby shook his guy to the floor with some great route running.

The main thing to take from that game is that the cards offense is dismal, outside of what is actually a pretty deep group of receivers even after Fitzgerald there isn't a decent player. Plus Calais Campbell remains awesome, he might be the best two-gapping 3-4 end in the game right now.

20
by greybeard :: Tue, 10/30/2012 - 1:02pm

"I dunno, that was possibly the least impressive 18 of 19 day I'll ever see."
I thought this was the only 18 of 19 we have ever seen.

Also, had Mr Benoit said that "Karl Cuba will not be impressed with Alex Smith's play" then I would not have made the comment I did. That sentence is no brainer.
Instead this is what he said:

"After a loss to the Giants and an ugly ground-oriented win over the Seahawks, there has been some national discussion about whether Jim Harbaugh is trying to limit Alex Smith’s impact on games. Have people not been watching the 49ers closely the past year-and-a-half? Since day one, Harbaugh’s mission has been to limit Smith’s impact. And he’s succeeded, which is why the Niners have won and Smith has finally looked like an adequate NFL starter."

I think this is quite the bullshit. I have watched Andrew Luck and how he run the Stanford offense, the responsibility of the QB, the run/pass selection and ratio and what Harbaugh does at 49ers is pretty much what he did at Stanford when he had one fo the best if not the best QB of college football.

"Harbaugh will certainly limit Smith’s impact in this game. He knows Smith processes information slowly, and he knows Smith doesn’t have a strong enough arm to drive the ball through tight windows on third-and-long. Harbaugh also knows that Arizona’s defense is perfectly designed for exploiting slow-thinking quarterbacks. The Cardinals do more second- and third-level blitzes than any team in the league. They’ll challenge a Niners offensive line that is rich in power but somewhat poor in agility. And with Patrick Peterson, they’ll be able to take one of San Francisco’s wideouts out of the equation."

Here is the eating crow part:

From Mike Sando:

"This was the first time all season a 49ers opponent had sent five or more pass-rushers on more than half of Smith's drop-backs. Smith completed seven of eight passes for 118 yards and all three touchdowns on those plays. He threw those passes only 5.1 yards past the line of scrimmage on average, his lowest figure of the season against added pressure, but his receivers made the plan work. They gained 82 yards after the catch on those seven completions. "

So Cardinals blitzed as Mr Benoit guessed and the slow thinking quarterback that will be exploited by Cardinals got 87% of completion and 3 TD out of that.

The wideout that were going to be non factor, had 3TD, 12 receptions (60% of the passes).

"The Niners can work around the Peterson factor. Most of their passing game will likely involve tight ends and running backs anyway."

I don't know if Mr Benoit has ever watched a 49ers game in the last two seasons. Besides the Seahwaks game they never passed to RBs heavily in Harbough era. Gore had the fewest receptions of his entire career last year. Yesterday was no different: there were a total of two throws to running backs yesterday.

"Typically, the Niners like to take downfield shots on first and second down. Don’t be surprised if they do this less than usual Monday night, as their concerns about avoiding third-and-long against this defense should lead to more called runs."

Until they had a big lead 49ers called more pass plays than run plays.

The entire section is wrong on facts and guesses one sentence at a time.

22
by Karl Cuba :: Tue, 10/30/2012 - 3:16pm

That's rather thorough, I agree with most of that, I think I was among those who pointed out that the 'blitz Alex' trope was fallacious in another thread somewhere.

You're also spot on about the passes to the backs, you don't see a lot of it, he could have been thrown by the niners going to check downs to the backs against Seattle last week.

27
by bravehoptoad :: Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:43am

I dunno, that was possibly the least impressive 18 of 19 day I'll ever see.

Heh. Yes, probably also the most impressive 18 of 19 day you'll ever see.

25
by freddrick (not verified) :: Tue, 10/30/2012 - 7:46pm

If there's going to be a 19/20 pass record, shouldn't they subtract the 3 passes where Alex had 3 drive-killing, unnecessary sacks?

26
by greybeard :: Wed, 10/31/2012 - 2:03am

What do you mean by drive killing?

Of the 4 sacks he took
- 1 drive ended with a field goal (where he made up for the sack by a 22 yards pass),
- another ended in touchdown.
- One really caused a drive to end, though I watched it again and it was not Smith's fault IMO.
- and the other one was on a third down. Whether he threw away or took a sack would have made no difference.

28
by Alex (not verified) :: Wed, 10/31/2012 - 6:04pm

You seriously underrate Culliver. He's one of the best corners in the league at the moment. Brown ain't that far off.

Fortunately, they made the case for me on Monday.

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