Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

30 Oct 2014

Film Room: Justin Houston and Emmanuel Sanders

by Cian Fahey

Winning the Defensive Player of the Year award over the coming seasons is going to be very difficult unless your name is Justin James Watt.

The Houston Texans defensive lineman is enjoying another outstanding season after a year in which he was undeservingly pipped to the award by Carolina Panthers linebacker Luke Kuechly. Watt has seven sacks, one forced fumble, one interception, one defensive touchdown, and one offensive touchdown to date. That production has come in spite of the absence of first overall draft pick Jadeveon Clowney for much of the season.

While Watt is rightfully the favorite for the award and receiving a lot of attention for his consistently impressive play, he is overshadowing another worthy candidate this season.

Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston is currently leading the NFL in sacks. He has taken the quarterback down behind the line of scrimmage on 10 occasions in just seven games. Only once has he been held without a sack, and that game took place in Week 2 against Peyton Manning's Broncos in Denver.

Houston has been a productive pass rusher throughout his career to this point. He has 36.5 sacks in 44 starts since being selected in the third round of the 2011 draft. But even though he had 11 sacks in 11 games last season, Houston's pass-rushing ability is clearly better than it has ever been this year.

This play against San Diego's impressive right tackle D.J. Fluker is typical of what Houston has done on a regular basis this season. He has been able to regularly use his power to overwhelm offensive linemen and either knock them down or push them back into the quarterback at speed. With this power and the fluid athleticism to also deceive blockers in space, Houston has become one of the toughest one-on-one assignments in the NFL.

What makes this more significant is that Houston doesn't have a narrow skill set. The 25-year-old has never been reliant on his ability to get to the quarterback to create his value on the field. In fact, up until this point in his career, Houston was arguably more adept at dropping into coverage and playing the run than he was disrupting clean pockets. That's not to diminish his rushing ability, but rather highlight the quality of his whole skill set.

Now that he is developing into a dominant pass rusher, it's hard to imagine that there is a better outside linebacker in the NFL than Houston.

Like most outside linebackers in a 3-4 scheme, Houston is rarely stressed too heavily when he drops into coverage with his assignment. He typically drops into an underneath zone or patrols the flat. The difficulty of his assignment isn't as notable as the effectiveness of his coverage. Houston is very consistent with his positioning and shows off outstanding balance and quickness while also being aware of receivers around him at all times.

On this play from Week 2 against the Broncos, Houston is lined up at left outside linebacker and is going to be responsible for the flat and 6 or 7 yards past the line of scrimmage. Houston has two tight ends to his side of the field. When the furthest outside tight end releases towards the sideline, Houston faces him and attempts to engage him before he gets into his route. When that tight end cuts back infield, the other tight end cuts underneath him to run into the flat. Houston shows off outstanding awareness, footwork, and balance to seamlessly transition from covering the first tight end to covering the second.

As we can see from the end zone angle, Manning wanted to throw the ball to the flat once his curl route down the field wasn't available. Because of Houston's speed through his transition from the first tight end to the second, Manning was forced to hold the ball before checking it down to his running back over the middle of the field -- where there are more defenders to come up and make a tackle short of the first-down marker.

This is a relatively simple play for a defensive back, but one that can consistently confuse linebackers who are asked to drop into coverage. Houston is so adept at this kind of play that he has essentially mastered the craft. He can't have as big of an impact on the game in this role as he does rushing the passer, but it offers defensive coordinator Bob Sutton more flexibility with his play calling and frees him to be very aggressive with his play designs.

As a run defender, Houston shows off all the traits to be successful in different situations.

When the opposition uses misdirection, attempts to read Houston in space, or runs stretch plays away from him towards the other side of the field, Houston has the quickness and discipline to contain the football. On this play against the San Francisco 49ers, Houston is lined up over the slot receiver to start the play. Before the ball is snapped, the offense motions the outside receiver, Anquan Boldin, into a position where he can block Houston for an outside run.

Houston watches Boldin as he moves inside. At the snap, the linebacker must account for the receiver across from him initially before accounting for Boldin. This creates a natural hesitation for the linebacker at the start of the play. After bracing for a Boldin hit that never comes, Houston quickly advances past the line of scrimmage to set the edge. He doesn't want to let Colin Kaepernick get to the outside, so he advances downfield, but he also doesn't want to be blocked out of the play on an inside run. Houston shows excellent technique to keep the blocker off of him and then reverse back to drag Kaepernick down.

The quarterback may have gained 5 yards on the play, but Houston handled this situation with great discipline and effectiveness. He limited the gain as much as could be realistically expected.

It's very rare that a dominant pass rusher offers his team such a well-rounded skill set. We haven't seen a player with Houston's versatility, consistency, and execution since James Harrison was in his prime. Harrison won Defensive Player of the Year in 2008, but he wasn't competing with an all-time talent like Houston is with Watt.

An Improved Broncos Passing Offense

If you only examine the Denver Broncos' 2013 season on the surface, it paints a very weird picture.

An offense that was historically productive during the regular season, at a time when the league was catering to offenses at the expense of every defense that took the field, proved to be incapable of providing any challenge against the Seattle Seahawks in the Super Bowl. A resounding victory for the NFC Champions came at the expense of an embarrassment for the AFC Champions. Even accepting that the Seahawks had one of the most impressive defenses you will ever see, it still made little sense that the Broncos could be blown out on a neutral field when the San Francisco 49ers and New Orleans Saints had both gone into Seattle and put up greater resistance

To understand that violent swing in fortunes, you must understand the structure of the Broncos offense at the time.

Peyton Manning threw for 5,477 yards with 55 touchdowns during the regular season; both numbers were NFL records. He was able to do that behind a suspect offensive line because of how his skills matched up with some very talented options at the skill positions. From his leading wide receiver through to his backup running back, it was hard to argue that anyone in the NFL had more depth around him in this area. While the Broncos' skill position players were very talented, though, they were mostly narrow talents -- players who were successful in very specific ways.

As highlighted before the Super Bowl, Demaryius Thomas wasn't the kind of receiver who beat defensive backs in every possible way. A huge percentage of his yardage came after the catch because he primarily caught passes against off coverage or on specific deep routes. Thomas was winning with his athleticism rather than his refined skill set as a receiver. The same could be said for his namesake at the tight end position, Julius Thomas, who enjoyed a breakout year because of his incredible physical ability and his natural comfort catching the football.

Eric Decker had a similarly narrow skill set, but his ability didn't come after the catch or in the form of freakish athleticism. Decker was an above-average athlete who could use his strength at the catch point while running specific routes to great effect. Wes Welker was the most well-rounded receiver that Manning had, but his explosiveness down the field had become limited by the time he wound up in Denver.

Manning was essentially throwing the ball to extremely talented role players, players who needed to be used in very specific ways to be effective. These pieces complemented each other well, and Manning's intelligence made it possible for the offense to produce despite its predictability. That game plan, however, was much tougher to execute against better quality of opposition -- a better quality of opposition that the Broncos were largely able to avoid until the Super Bowl.

Now, in 2014, the Broncos passing attack has changed. Both Julius Thomas and Demaryius Thomas have developed into better all-around players. Demaryius is consistently beating defensive backs in different ways, while Julius is taking the natural steps in his development that typically follow a player's rookie season. Julius wasn't a rookie last year, but it was his first prolonged exposure on the field, so the effect is similar. Decker departed for the New York Jets in free agency, leaving a space that would be filled by the player who really elevated the versatility and effectiveness of this offense.

Emmanuel Sanders was a third-round pick of the Pittsburgh Steelers during the 2010 NFL draft. He entered the league alongside Antonio Brown, who would be his competitor for active roster spots during his rookie season.

Sanders and Brown eventually earned roster spots together during that year, but Pittsburgh relied more heavily on Sanders. By the time the Steelers faced the Packers in the Super Bowl, Sanders was a key cog as the third receiver in the offense. He was expected to play a big role in the Super Bowl, but a foot injury sidelined him early on during the game. That foot injury would lead to another, as his fragile feet set Sanders' career back for two more years.

Sanders had beaten Brown out early on because of his versatility and refined skill set, but Brown later overtook him because Sanders couldn't create consistency on the field while battling the lingering issues with his feet. Therefore, when Sanders became a free agent, the Steelers showed very little interest in re-signing him. That opened the door for Sanders, now 27, to become a Broncos receiver, where he would take over for Decker ahead of this season.

Decker signed a much more lucrative deal than Sanders in free agency. That deal largely came about because of his physical measurements and his production with the Broncos, but it didn't mean that he was a better player.

Now healthy, Sanders is has played a huge role in diversifying the Broncos passing attack and making it more effective. He brings a versatility and type of explosiveness that hasn't been available to Manning since he arrived in Denver. Like Demaryius Thomas, Sanders can excel with the football in his hands. Like Wes Welker, Sanders runs precision routes with exceptional quickness to create space as a possession receiver. Like Julius Thomas, he has natural ball skills that allow him to excel at the catch point, even if he doesn't carry the same physical prowess.

Whereas Decker was a linear athlete who only ran a handful of routes with consistent effectiveness, Sanders is a very fluid athlete who runs every route imaginable with consistent effectiveness. Furthermore, Sanders offers the same threat lined up outside of the numbers as he does in the slot or lined up next to the offensive line as part of a three- or four-receiver set. While Decker stretched the field vertically, Sanders stretches it both vertically and horizontally.

Sanders is a different style of receiver than Decker, but he can do everything Decker does well to the same degree.

Both Decker and Sanders are impressive deep threats, but they create deep opportunities in different ways. Decker showed some level of quickness on the field, but he primarily came free deep because of his straight-line speed and size at the catch point. Sanders is very fast in a straight line and he wins at the catch point with his ball skills rather than his size. The key difference between the two players is that Sanders understands how to set up deep routes with his route running. We can see that on these two plays from last week's game against the San Diego Chargers.

On this play, Sanders is lined up to the top of the screen against rookie Jason Verrett. Verrett has had an impressive start to his rookie season, and he is not the type of cornerback that Sanders should be able to beat on a post route when the defensive back is in off coverage to start the play. Sanders is able to do this because of his acceleration off the line and his footwork to set up the inside route when he advances towards the defensive back down the field. Verrett reacts as well as any defensive back could be expected to, but a perfect throw from Manning combined with the speed and ball skills of Sanders allow the receiver to come up with a big play.

While the first example required a perfect throw and impressive catch, this play highlights Sanders' threat against press coverage in one-on-one situations. Sanders simply runs past Richard Marshall after initially selling an inside release with his quick feet at the line of scrimmage. The receiver's route created a simple throw for the quarterback and an easy touchdown.

The one concern with swapping Sanders in for Decker is that Manning loses a receiver who can win at the catch point and turn slightly inaccurate throws into easy catches with his size.

Size is quickly taking over for straight-line speed as one of the most consistently overrated aspects of being a football player. Sanders isn't a big receiver; he is listed at less than six feet tall. He makes up for his lack of size with exceptional ball skills and footwork. He is very comfortable catching the ball away from his body at full extension against tight coverage, while his hands and feet typically work together to allow him to make tight sideline receptions.

Denver's transition from Decker to Sanders has undoubtedly improved the Broncos offense. His addition, added to the continued development of Julius Thomas and Demaryius Thomas, should allow this offense to be more effective against a greater quality of opposition this year. This is something that is already being reflected in DVOA.

The Broncos ranked first in DVOA as an offense last year, first in pass offense and 10th in run offense. Now that Knowshon Moreno is in Miami, the rushing offense has gotten notably worse, but that hasn't prevented the passing attack from getting significantly better. The Broncos finished the 2013 season with a 60.3% passing offense DVOA, almost eight percent higher than the second-place team and more than 20 percent higher than the third-place team. To this point in the 2014 season, the passing offense is first again, but this time at 67.7%. That's a 7.4% DVOA increase over what had already been the best passing offense in football.

And that's a scary thing to think about.

Posted by: Cian Fahey on 30 Oct 2014

24 comments, Last at 01 Nov 2014, 3:06pm by Noah Arkadia

Comments

1
by Will Allen :: Thu, 10/30/2014 - 2:18pm

I think you have the names reversed in the first sentence of the next to the last paragraph, and if so, I agree completely. Decker's size advantage is mostly negated by the fact that he really doesn't have above average ball skills by NFL standards.

2
by Vincent Verhei :: Thu, 10/30/2014 - 2:35pm

Indeed. It's been fixed.

15
by Led :: Thu, 10/30/2014 - 8:05pm

I think there's a very good chance Seattle blew out Denver in the SB because they were a very good team and had a good day when Denver had a bad day. It happens. Just like KC over NE this year. You can't draw meaningful conclusions (other than the very general conclusion that Seattle was very good and deserved to be champs) from a single game no matter how hyped it is. Also, the 7.4% improvement in passing DVOA to date (or at least some of it) could also be due to Manning continuing to recover physically from the injury. He seems to me to have a stronger arm this year. Last year there were still a lot of perfectly placed and perfectly timed flutter balls. The Thomas non-brothers are also hitting their peak years.

I'm not committing to an anti-Sanders view -- just offering a counterpoint. However, he does seem like the kind of player that flourishes with Manning but would be invisible with a bad QB that can't anticipate and place the ball as well. Whereas Decker is actually sort of productive even in the worst QB situation in the league. Look at how bad all the other Jets WRs are this year! Even Jeremy Kerley, who had an Ok DVOA last year, is turrible. I can't prove it, but I'm confident Sanders would be poops in NY too while Kerley would be pushing a 20+ DVOA in Denver. Sanders is better than Kerley, but I suspect it's closer than you think.

3
by theslothook :: Thu, 10/30/2014 - 3:31pm

Manning has historically preferred these type of receivers throughout his career and there is a reason the colts put an emphasis on them. Clark was an undersized tight end.

I would love to have seen what DT would have become without PM. By that I mean, would he have developed into what he is now without Manning? I've resisted against these type of arguments in the past because teams hire receiving coaches for a reason, but maybe there is something to working with Manning that gets you better. Idk.

16
by PerlStalker :: Fri, 10/31/2014 - 9:03am

DT has given a lot of credit for his development to Manning. PM is very exacting on what he wants out of his receivers. DT took those lessons to heart and he became a much better receiver because of it.

With a different QB and receivers coach, DT may have been able to make the same improvements or he could have remained the same physically gifted but lousy route runner we've seen time and time again. I lean towards the former but I think it would have taken another year or two to get to the point he's at now.

18
by Noah Arkadia :: Fri, 10/31/2014 - 2:34pm

I'm curious. In other threads you have stated your belief that QBs are not developed by coaches. Do you believe that does not apply to other positions, such as WR? Or is it simply you believe that all coaches are equally good at developing players? I ask because you seem to imply receiving coaches do develop players.

------
Who, me?

19
by theslothook :: Fri, 10/31/2014 - 3:07pm

I've done a ton of draft analysis. Still working on it. But the general view I seem to be getting is - no one has an any kind of edge in drafting over a long period of time. This either means they aren't finding the right players or they can't turn them into great players.

Here's my overall opinion. Generally speaking, you are what you are in the nfl and certain coaches can get more out you than others. RR with creative schemes can probably make a secondary play better than its talent would allow. And the moment that coach goes away, the talent reverts back to its original form.

As to Manning. I hate the idea that he teaches receivers to play well because teams hire receiving coaches to do that. If Manning really is a good receiving teacher, then they really ought to fire the receiving coach or give manning some kind of side income for the job.

20
by tuluse :: Fri, 10/31/2014 - 3:38pm

Peyton Manning has made more money than just about every other QB. His income does reflect his positive effects on his teammates.

23
by theslothook :: Fri, 10/31/2014 - 11:02pm

I should be clearer. In theory, the nfl should mimic an efficient market. Namely, everyone is fully aware of the techniques needed to develop players into what they are. Its not like any one team has the skeleton key to receivers/dbs. The nfl is a highly competitive business, so wouldn't it follow that they would hire the best and brightest?

24
by Noah Arkadia :: Sat, 11/01/2014 - 3:06pm

Yes, I see your point. I suspect, however, that things are more complicated than they seem, primarily because when there are people involved that is usually the case.

------
Who, me?

4
by theslothook :: Thu, 10/30/2014 - 3:32pm

Cian, have you seen a lot of Von Miller so far? If so, can you reply in the comments to this if you think Houston is overall a better player or how you see it shaking out between the two.

8
by Cian Fahey :: Thu, 10/30/2014 - 4:13pm

Both are wonderful players. I think Houston has been a bit better this year and is a more well-rounded player on the whole, but it's probably a style preference more than anything because Miller's value as a pass rusher is greater than Houston's.

5
by jacobk :: Thu, 10/30/2014 - 3:39pm

Denver's offense was at 37.7% DVOA last year at Week 8, compared to 31.8% this year. I can't figure out how to pull up week-specific passing DVOA from last year to do an apples-to-apples comparison, but my understanding is that passing DVOA usually starts a little higher than it finishes because of the changes in weather conditions over the course of the year.

In other words, I don't think the article shows whether the improvement over Denver's year end numbers is due to actual improvement or just due to when the numbers are being measured.

6
by commissionerleaf :: Thu, 10/30/2014 - 3:52pm

Through seven games, Manning was probably better last year in terms of numbers, since his only stinker of the year was New England in late November, and over seven games the opener with Baltimore is a big outlier.

7
by theslothook :: Thu, 10/30/2014 - 4:05pm

It's pretty much impossible to have a year to year repeat of an outlier season. I think what this offense is doing this year, given how much regression always pulls down a team the next season, is pretty remarkable.

9
by shoutingloudly :: Thu, 10/30/2014 - 4:48pm

This is an amazing explanation of Sanders v. Decker. I like Eric Decker, but he always seemed like a pretty good player who benefitted tremendously from his circumstances. Sanders, meanwhile, is freakishly good, and whereas Decker was always a little over-hyped, I think Sanders is getting relatively too little love in the press for his work.

10
by RugMcDaniels :: Thu, 10/30/2014 - 5:17pm

JJ Watt has 2 defensive TDS,not 1

11
by nat :: Thu, 10/30/2014 - 7:11pm

When I saw that route tree comparison graphic, I thought "Cool. Someone actually did some study to back up this versitility idea."

But, no. He didn't. He just made up a graphic.

Meh.

12
by theslothook :: Thu, 10/30/2014 - 7:21pm

How do you know he made it up?

13
by nat :: Thu, 10/30/2014 - 7:39pm

Because he would have said how he got it otherwise. Besides, it's silly. Sanders gets credit for improvisational stuff on extended plays. Sure, Decker just runs his routes then sits down and pouts. Right.

14
by theslothook :: Thu, 10/30/2014 - 7:41pm

Shrug, if that's the overall theme you took from his analysis, then so be it.

22
by LionInAZ :: Fri, 10/31/2014 - 10:57pm

Considering that Cian said nothing about "improvisation", but rather "runs more routes consistently and effectively"... 'shrug' is the appropriate response, I think.

17
by Dane Roberns :: Fri, 10/31/2014 - 1:07pm

It's not terribly relevant to the article, but Watt has two defensive scores (not one).

21
by knucklebear :: Fri, 10/31/2014 - 3:40pm

You could have changed the article title to "Two reasons Why the Chargers are Struggling" and kept most things the same. This does not take away from Houston or Sanders who are in fact playing great and beating up on lesser talent like great players do.

You did a good job highlighting DJ Fluker's struggles in pass blocking. He's regressed more than most predicted after a solid rookie season.

You also showed how much the Chargers need a healthy Flowers and Verrett to compete. Verrett wasn't in horrible position to cover Sanders but Manning made a perfect throw and it paid off. Of course with a torn labrum the Chargers will have to rely on backups against the Dolphins.

The second TD shows one of those backups, Richard Marshall, getting burned. This is not new to anyone who's watched Marshall play this season, in fact that performance got him released from the Chargers.

The Chargers have plenty of other problems like a struggling run game, porous run defense and a lack of a pass rush but the shaky pass protection and horrible coverage are contributing to their losing streak as much as anything.