Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

01 Aug 2005

FO Chat at Baseball Prospectus

Here's the transcript of today's chat on BaseballProspectus.com, discussing the 2005 fortunes of numerous teams including the Eagles, Colts, Patriots, Bills, and Packers.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 01 Aug 2005

8 comments, Last at 03 Aug 2005, 9:42pm by someone

Comments

1
by Wes M (not verified) :: Mon, 08/01/2005 - 6:25pm

"America's other favorite sport."

Heh. Thinking of persuing a career in politics?

2
by Basilicus (not verified) :: Tue, 08/02/2005 - 12:50am

"I've brought this up numerous times, but why would anybody believe that Eli Manning is a better quarterback than Ken Dorsey? Both quarterbacks had equal college success, both quarterbacks had similar numbers last year facing a similar level of opposition. Both quarterbacks played their rookie seasons with an injured receiving corps and a decimated offensive line. Manning even had an advantage, a much better running game than Dorsey had. Yet everyone writes off Dorsey and expects greatness from Manning."

Comparing those two is interesting. They both showed marked improvement from their first few games to their last few. It's a small sample size, but still worth noting. Everyone's brought up Eli Manning's improvement in his last few games:

First 5 games: 42 of 110, 516 yards, 1 TDs, 6 INTs
Last 3 games: 53 of 87, 527 yards, 5 TDs, 3 INTs

In those first 5 games, E. Manning faced defenses that averages 8.6 in the league in yards allowed. In those last 3 it was an average of 12 in yards allowed (yes, I know, it's a limited stat.) There's not too much difference there.

Now I've heard a lot of commentary about how rookie QBs normally don't have to face the best defenses in the league straight off the way E. Manning did, but Dorsey had similarly tough opposition. Dorsey had some improvement as well over the course of the season.

Ken Dorsey

First 4 games: 62 of 115, 591 yards, 1 TD, 4 INTs
Last 4 games: 61 of 111, 640 yards, 6 TDs, 5 INTs

The telling thing is that in those first four games, the defenses Dorsey faced averaged 23.3 in yards allowed. In those last 4 games, the defenses Dorsey faced averaged 6.5 in yards allowed. So even though the improvement in his pure stats isn't amazing, it becomes more impressive when you consider he improved against vastly better defenses in those last four games

I think both quarterbacks offer a lot more upside than most people give them credit for, however. For instance, in Peyton Manning's first six games, he completed just 53.8% of his passes for 6.5 yards per attempt, 6 TDs and 14 INTs.

Actually, it's a little odd how close (on the surface) Eli Manning and Archie Manning's first seasons were.

Eli Manning: 95 of 197 (48.2%) for 1,043 yards, 6 TDs and 9 INTs
Archie Manning: 86 of 177 (48.6%) for 1,164 yards, 6 TDs and 9 INTs

Of course, they played in different eras and Archie averaged over a yard more per attempt than Eli in his first season. And he also carried the ball 33 times for 172 yards and 4 TDs, so really the seasons are nothing alike past some of the surface numbers.

But I wouldn't be surprised to see Eli Manning or Ken Dorsey really turn into good QBs. So I guess I'm mostly agreeing. So there.

3
by Richie (not verified) :: Tue, 08/02/2005 - 1:44pm

Can we get a thread for yesterday's MMQB comment that Deion Sanders has 1,900 suits and a 2,500 square foot closet?

4
by Brandon (not verified) :: Tue, 08/02/2005 - 1:51pm

Forget Grady Jackson's holdout, he flunked his physical because of his bum knee. How many players have held out when injured?

Unfortunately Aaron is dead-on right with the Packers run defense; it has been awful the last few years without Grady Jackson in the middle. Bates appears to be a superior coach to Slovak at coordinator, based on past coordinator results (Slovak was Cleveland 2.0's first defensive coordinator too). Even if Grady Jackson isn't healthy this season, the Packers have spent several middle and late round picks to build depth at defensive tackle, so hopefully a player or two emerges from that group.

5
by somebody (not verified) :: Tue, 08/02/2005 - 2:45pm

Were the cowboys really favored in that loss to carolina in the playoffs in 1996.? I think the panthers were 12-4 the cowboys were 10-6 and barry switzer was still their coach and they had some injury problems. Meanwhile the panthers looked like the 2nd best team in the nfc for pretty much the entire year behind green bay.

6
by Flux (not verified) :: Tue, 08/02/2005 - 5:48pm

Nothing to nit pick, just that I enjoyed reading the chat and hope you do some more of those, either on BP or here. It sort of reminds me of the old days when good content was available on ESPN.com... *sigh*

7
by thad (not verified) :: Tue, 08/02/2005 - 11:16pm

yep
the cowboys were fsvored by three strangely enough. in retrspect it seems kind of goofy but at the time switzer had won a super bowl and taken the cowboys to the nfc championship in 94. the panthers were a second year expansion team and did not have any big names that sounded like aikman, smith, or irvin. Irvin broke his leg the firdt time he touched the ball and the game was never in doubt.

8
by someone (not verified) :: Wed, 08/03/2005 - 9:42pm

You're completely right on Eli Manning IMO. He will be an above average QB in the NFL but never great. No stats formed that opinion, just watching him play his rookie season. And I expect rookies to suck, but he really was a lot worse than I thought he would be.