Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

08 Nov 2005

FO Chat at Baseball Prospectus

Here's an archive of today's FO chat at BaseballProspectus.com -- thanks to those guys, as always, for loaning me the space. Today's chat discussed LaDainian Tomlinson, football in Los Angeles, the future of Curtis Martin and Priest Holmes, statistical analysis of college football, and criticisms of our fantasy football projections.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 08 Nov 2005

8 comments, Last at 10 Nov 2005, 10:14am by James Gibson

Comments

1
by Michael David Smith :: Tue, 11/08/2005 - 7:25pm

"Would the Lions be better off just punting on 1st down?"

Only if by some miracle Nick Harris could kick a ball so hard that it would crash into Matt Millen's suite and hit him in the head hard enough to cause severe brain damage, which in Millen's case might make him a better evaluator of talent.

2
by Devin McCullen (not verified) :: Tue, 11/08/2005 - 7:33pm

Well, if it were part of a plan to get Millen so outraged he comes down to the sideline mid-game to ask Mooch what he's doing, and then you bounce one off his noggin, it might work.

3
by Richie (not verified) :: Tue, 11/08/2005 - 9:13pm

Has anyone looked to see if throwing out the biggest blowout loss and biggest blowout win for a team each season improves the pythagorean projections for a team. eg, if you throw out GB's big win over NO, their pythagorean projection becomes more accurate.

4
by andrew (not verified) :: Wed, 11/09/2005 - 2:17am

I'm rooting for Green Bay to lose each of their remaining games by one point, thus keeping their positive point total margin going....

As for Orlovsky... hey, it worked with Brad Johnson, didn't it?

Its too bad Rogers won't see any time so we can have the entire division finish with other quarterbacks...

5
by R.J. (not verified) :: Wed, 11/09/2005 - 5:48am

I believe a significant part of Baseball Prospectus' success in book sales is directly related to it's unique and successful projections for fantasy baseball (even though it does not see itself as a "fantasy baseball" book). If FO wants to see a similar success for Football Prospectus, I suggest it follow that example . . .

6
by Richie (not verified) :: Wed, 11/09/2005 - 2:13pm

If FO wants to see a similar success for Football Prospectus, I suggest it follow that example . . .

Yeah, FO. Time to start pulling rabbits out of hats. We know you're sitting on the good info. You knew Brian Griese would get hurt, that Neil Rackers would be awesome. Why didn't you tell us?

7
by R.J. (not verified) :: Wed, 11/09/2005 - 6:35pm

Sorry if it wasn't clear but #5 was meant as a joke. But it is a sad fact that no matter how good the analysis and insights are, if you can't help the peeps with their fantasy sports teams, widespread popularity will be hard to achieve.

8
by James Gibson (not verified) :: Thu, 11/10/2005 - 10:14am

IMO, there was some good fantasy info this year, despite the Kevin Jones info. I personally dropped Trent Green, Tony Gonzalez, and Priest Holmes down my ratings based on PFP. Holmes I likely would have done on my own, but the info about TE's and age and KC's offense in genearl certainly helped with the other two.

Also helpful was the fact that Ahman Green was shown to be declining for real and not just having a one yar blip downward (most fantasy magazines just tell you to average the last 3 years).

Now, I think it's going to be a lot harder to get exact football stats than baseball stats. For one thing, I don't think something equivalent to the EqA that BP has is likely to come from football considering there is no minor leagues. This makes it especially hard to judge rookies and even second year players, where there is a lack of data.

The other thing is that the one thing that is the least predictable - TDs - is the most important fantasy stat.