Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

25 Jul 2006

FO Chat at Baseball Prospectus

I took questions over at BP.com for an hour and a half today, about the new book and the upcoming season. Topics included improvements to DVOA and KUBIAK, teams least likely to make the Super Bowl, the Keenan McCardell All-Stars, Edgerrin James, and whether or not I am with leather. By the way, I screwed up the tour dates at the end -- DC is August 16, Cleveland is August 17. Hopefully I'll get to do another one of these chats soon, there were definitely more questions than ever before.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 25 Jul 2006

32 comments, Last at 27 Jul 2006, 5:39pm by GlennW

Comments

1
by Josh (not verified) :: Tue, 07/25/2006 - 4:10pm

Great info, and love the Jamal Lewis line.
Awaiting delivery of the book, and hoping you do this again soon

2
by Grim Jim (not verified) :: Tue, 07/25/2006 - 4:22pm

My copy of the prospectus arrived yesterday.

3
by dfarrar777 (not verified) :: Tue, 07/25/2006 - 4:40pm

PFP just arrived via UPS. There goes MY productivity for the rest of the day...

4
by JRM (not verified) :: Tue, 07/25/2006 - 4:56pm

So if PECOTA = Bill Pecota, does KUBIAK = Ted Kubiak?

5
by help! (not verified) :: Tue, 07/25/2006 - 5:11pm

I have a question, if you were only going to buy one Fantasy Football tool to dominate your league, would it be PFP or the KUBIAK projections? I know the KUBIAK projections are a part of PFP, so why pay extra for it online? Is it only for the customizable options and updates or what?

6
by admin :: Tue, 07/25/2006 - 6:06pm

The KUBIAK projections are part of the book, but not really the main part. You get chapters on every team, all the defensive stats, all the game charting stuff, all the research essays, historical essays, and so on. Plus, with the player comments, you'll learn WHY some of the projections are what they are.

Unfortunately, with print, you can't tweak things, sort them, change them when guys get hurt in August, etc. That's why we do the spreadsheet as well.

KUBIAK = Gary Kubiak.

7
by Ilanin (not verified) :: Tue, 07/25/2006 - 7:13pm

Since it was mentioned, the outsiders glossary still calls Mr. Kubiak the Denver offensive co-ordinator rather than the Houston Texans' head coach.

8
by DJAnyReason (not verified) :: Tue, 07/25/2006 - 7:46pm

Re: 7

The glossary doesn't include stuff like the FOMBC or Rusher McFumbles yet either, so it probably just hasn't been given its offseason update yet.

9
by Becephalus (not verified) :: Tue, 07/25/2006 - 8:45pm

It also doesn't include ROBO-PUNTER!

10
by Matthew Furtek (not verified) :: Wed, 07/26/2006 - 2:39am

10 Things I Thought:
1) I pre-ordered PFP last week with Free Shipping from Amazon. It hasn't yet shipped... grrr!

2) Last year I bought PFP 2005 for $20 at a bookstore in Delaware around Christmas-time. It was well worth it, and I'm glad to get the new one for $13.

3) I think Ladell Betts should be freed as well. The Redskins are glutton at RB.

4) Is it okay that I love this site yet hate fanatasy football? In 10 years you'll ahve to rename the system SORGI.

5) I really hope Arizona gives Seattle a run for their money... not buying it but I hope so... Kurt Warner's wife needs to give him back the pixie dust.

6) Nice one Trogdor... Kellen Winslow's stuck with a bad case of VD!

7)
My computer is ready to DVR 4 games a week this season... plus whatever extras come on the NFL Network (probably not usable for charting though). I'll be getting all of San Diego's games.

8) I'm glad Washington has a first round pick next year... woohoo. They have plenty of WR depth as well... and I would argue about their QB depth.

9) Edge on Carolina puts fear in me as a fan of another NFC team... that would be better than seeing him playing the Spin Doctor for Dennis Green's pass happy offense.

10) WR performance is extremely variable year-year... you should put taht in the answer to the Deion Branch question. Only a handful of them perform consistently well... even Top 15.

11) Can you guys put out some type of Madden Ratings system? This could be an extension of game charting... just throwing ideas out.

12) No trip to Los Angeles? I suppose no franchise = no PFP trip from the brownies... so you guys have some type of PFP Cruiser or something? A big bus painted up as a calculator and football statsheets?

11
by Matthew Furtek (not verified) :: Wed, 07/26/2006 - 2:45am

One more question:
Does PFP have a glossary of player information for everyone... I'm hoping for name, college, draft year and draft round... even though all of this is easily looked up on the Internet...

12
by Avoid (not verified) :: Wed, 07/26/2006 - 5:59am

They had a pretty extensive glossary style write up on players last year, very, very deep. Hope the amazon shipment gets to me before the Friday start of my vacation. The age listing of every player is helpful for keeper leagues, the age of players is so huge and even may serious NFL fans do not realize this.

13
by Vash (not verified) :: Wed, 07/26/2006 - 6:04am

#9: The hell is Robo-Punter? Although I guess that's the point of putting it in the glossary.

14
by Mr Shush (not verified) :: Wed, 07/26/2006 - 6:17am

I think your arguments for Edge being a bad value signing for the Cardinals miss the point slightly. Do I agree that he will be a pretty indifferent fantasy player next year? Absolutely (and even if I didn't I'd say people had good reason to trust KUBIAK over my gut). Will his value to the team on the field represent value for $8m in cap space? I sincerely doubt it. But is his value in terms of improving the credibility of a bottom-dwelling franchise and hence selling more season tickets in the new stadium and attracting better other players worth $8m on the cap? I'd say so and then some. I honestly think Edge was worth more to the Cards than to any other team in football, which is why that's where he ended up. It doesn't even matter if he does bust in playing terms, because after next year the general public will be aware of Boldin and Fitzgerald as genuine superstars in their prime, as well as expectant of Leinart's emergence.

15
by Devin McCullen (not verified) :: Wed, 07/26/2006 - 3:11pm

PFP is in stores, at least the Barnes & Noble on 45th Street & 5th Avenue in Manhattan. They literally put it on the shelf as I was standing there during my lunch break. (And now there's one less copy there.)

16
by Zac (not verified) :: Wed, 07/26/2006 - 4:34pm

Vash, ROBO-Punter has to do with a discussion (click my name for the link) about what a team would be willing to pay a punter if he could make the ball land at the 1 yard line every time.

17
by Pat (not verified) :: Wed, 07/26/2006 - 5:18pm

Actually, where a punter who could punt to the 1 every time would be drafted.

It was fairly silly, but it was designed to show that first overall draft picks have gotten so expensive that certain positions simply can't be picked there, regardless of how good they are (it probably should've been 'almost regardless') - and it's probably to the point where running back is one of those positions.

18
by dave whorton (not verified) :: Wed, 07/26/2006 - 7:17pm

amazon says i won't get mine until august 4th-7th and it also says its not yet released. i thought it would be here when i got home today man what a let down.i pre-ordered may 31.

19
by RowdyRoddyPiper (not verified) :: Thu, 07/27/2006 - 12:48am

Amazon is giving me some jibber jabber about August 6th to 11th. That will leave me only three weeks to plan my fantasy draft. How is a man expected to play great dominos under these conditions.

Seriously, if the authors can light a fire under Amazon I'd appreciate it as I have to get my brothers their copies once they arrive. If not no problem.

20
by Sergio (not verified) :: Thu, 07/27/2006 - 12:52am

You guys can't possibly complaint. I'm getting it (according to Amazon) in the last week of August...

Of course, I live in Mexico, but still... I would've expedited it, but as it is, I'm paying $17 US for shipping... crazy!

21
by Sergio (not verified) :: Thu, 07/27/2006 - 12:53am

And by complaint, I mean complain...

22
by admin :: Thu, 07/27/2006 - 11:07am

OK, I don't understand Amazon at all. My associates link says they are sending out almost 100 pre-ordered copies per day. Some people have received them from Amazon. I have no idea why some people get them before others. We can't do anything about it. I'm sorry. We'll try harder to get the book out earlier next year, I promise.

23
by stan (not verified) :: Thu, 07/27/2006 - 12:57pm

re: Edge

I think 14 makes a good point (there are business reasons for signings that go beyond talent).

I think that it would be helpful to look at where Edge gained his yardage the last few years to see if he can help the Cards. A couple of years ago, he could give a good burst on a draw play for good yardage. (The Colts' line can't make an inside hole, except on draws.) We saw less and less of that last year.

In '05, most of his yardage came on the Colts' unique way of running the outside zone stretch where he ran it like a sweep, but Manning's play action kept secondaries from supporting vs. the run. Edge didn't show the burst or the cutback ability from the past, but he still excelled at finding a small crease, then hitting it with great power and the lowest pad level of any RB in the NFL.

My point -- Edge developed a running style which is unique in the league. He excelled at getting to the outside in a hurry and exploiting a defense which had no secondary help. He wasn't getting much blocking to speak of, but the way the defensive front had to race outside caused seams to develop and James became a master at hitting these seams. Think back to how many times you saw him start outside, then turn and hammer hard with his pads about two feet off the ground into a seam and turn a 2 yard gain into 5 or 6.

Will this skill translate to the Cards? He doesn't appear to have the burst or explosive cutback anymore. He does, however, still have the ability to accelerate into a crease and create extra yardage. With the Colts, the power came because the defenders were usually off-balance due to racing down the line and not being in a position to take him on squared-up with good pad level. Normally, in the confined space of the tackle box, LBs can square up better to take on a power back.

Without the leverage advantage, will Edge be as effective? Does he still have enough speed and cutting ability to play TB in a typical NFL running game? Or is he reduced to being a power back without the size of typical NFL power backs?

24
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Thu, 07/27/2006 - 12:57pm

Got mine yesterday, because Amazon likes me apparently.

I did have an actual followup to the Winslow crack, but work intervened at the time. So anyway, what kind of offensive production do you expect from the Browns this year? With their young "skill" position players, they have some good potential, depending on how Frye pans out. Then consider that the offensive line has sucked since about 87, and they finally got some major upgrades... what's that? Oh, well, that figures.

25
by GlennW (not verified) :: Thu, 07/27/2006 - 2:52pm

Just picked up PFP 2006 at the Barnes & Noble in Nashua NH. Actually you guys have been in the shipping stock area all week, but now the other copy is on the shelves and up for grabs.

Re. Edgerrin James-- if the Cardinals can stretch the field with the passing game (their strength) I don't see why the same running style wouldn't be successful. However I'm not sure I believe that the Colts' O-line isn't specifically suited to this approach, or that the Cardinals could hope to duplicate it, at least right away.

26
by JRM (not verified) :: Thu, 07/27/2006 - 3:05pm

Just picked up PFP 2006 at the Barnes & Noble in Nashua NH.

There's ONE left?

I'm on my way...

27
by coltrane23 (not verified) :: Thu, 07/27/2006 - 3:25pm

That's OK, Aaron--next year, I'll just pre-order sooner to get a better place in line when the book does ship. :-)

As it stands, I placed my pre-order sometime in late June, and I'm supposed to receive the book next week. I'm guessing the earliest pre-orders get the earliest copies--when I worked in a bookshop, that was how it went.

Congratulations on outselling T.O., by the way.

28
by stan (not verified) :: Thu, 07/27/2006 - 3:41pm

Glenn,

It isn't just the threat of the pass. The QB has to sprint to the outside to get the handoff to him rather than pitch it like a toss sweep. The handoff creates the threat of play action and keeps the safety and CB from coming up in support.

No other QB in the NFL does it like Manning. Jeff Fisher says they have never had anyone who could replicate it properly for the Titans to practice against.

Can the Cards do it? Will they try?

29
by GlennW (not verified) :: Thu, 07/27/2006 - 3:46pm

> There’s ONE left?

The guy only put one copy on the shelves, and I doubt that B&N Nashua was allocated a bunch, but there may be more. You should be all set if you go in today. And you were right, I guess we are neighbors (actually, to the best of my knowledge I am the only resident of Hollis NH with a Pittsburgh Steelers Budweiser neon sign in the window of my entertainment room). ;-)

30
by GlennW (not verified) :: Thu, 07/27/2006 - 3:49pm

> Can the Cards do it? Will they try?

With Kurt Warner, I would say decidedly no, not with significant rollouts and ball-fakes involved. Matt Leinart, possibly.

31
by JRM (not verified) :: Thu, 07/27/2006 - 5:20pm

The guy only put one copy on the shelves, and I doubt that B&N Nashua was allocated a bunch, but there may be more. You should be all set if you go in today.

No one will care, but I'll post it anyway.

The guy that rang up my copy of PRO FOOTBALL PROSPECTUS 2006 marveled at the fact that two books arrived and both sold within hours.

So Glenn and I had the same gentleman ring in our purschase. Male bonding at it's finest.

32
by GlennW (not verified) :: Thu, 07/27/2006 - 5:39pm

That's teamwork baby-- too bad the high-five is being held in abeyance until further adjudication of Man Law.