Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

28 Apr 2006

Michael David Smith Chat Transcript II

You just can't stop this guy from talking about the NFL Draft. This time, he spoke with the readers of SEAHAWKS.NET. By the way, I just want to thank Mike for taking the lead on the draft coverage this year. I don't watch college football, and this is the one area of the NFL I really don't study much. I really appreciate that Mike dealt with our content partners and that he and Mike Tanier wrote lots of draft-related material, freeing me up to work on Pro Football Prospectus 2006.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 28 Apr 2006

10 comments, Last at 30 Apr 2006, 3:44am by chris

Comments

1
by DJAnyReason (not verified) :: Fri, 04/28/2006 - 3:48pm

Is Hasselbeck really justifyable as the 4th best QB in the NFL? His DVOA in the last 3 years have ranked 6, 13, and 7. By way of comparison, Trent Green has gone 7, 9, 5 in those three years, and Jake Plummer has been 5, 12, 6. I think if you look at FO's numbers, its hard to make an objective case that Hasselbeck is measurably better than Green or Plummer, and nobody is putting them in the elite class of NFL QBs.

2
by Will Allen (not verified) :: Fri, 04/28/2006 - 4:14pm

The comments about Martz are interesting, and it may be true that it is overestimated as to how much pounding his quarterbacks take, but it sure seems to me that he is more unwilling than, say, Joe Gibbs, to keep extra blockers in, thus limiting receiver options. It'd be interesting to do an analysis between the two, to establish if Gibbs does go max protect at a substantially higher rate, especially since Gibbs and Martz are both on the Sid Gillman/Don Coryell coaching tree. I just remember when John St. Clair was completely overmatched at right tackle with the Rams, and being surprised that Martz didn't give him help more consistently.

3
by Pat (not verified) :: Fri, 04/28/2006 - 4:53pm

Zemaitis led the Big Ten in interceptions, which got him some attention, but I'm not a huge fan of his. I watch the Big Ten more than any other conference, and he never really wowed me.

Last year, he wouldn't've wowed you. In the Orange Bowl, there was a grand total of 1 pass thrown to receivers covered deep (i.e. not a screen) by him in the entire game. Only one was a deep ball - and it was intercepted.

That was a common theme all year. They never threw against Zemaitis deep. They threw against Anwar Phillips deep - and while he held his own, you can see why they threw that way. (In the same game, they threw 6 times to Phillips's man: offensive pass interference, 15 yards, 11 yards, incomplete, incomplete, 12 yards).

(I have to say: it's fun breaking down games play-by-play. You really notice things that you don't notice during the game itself. Like how horrendously sad it is when the *center* is the first guy to arrive at a punt.)

There's a reason he didn't wow you. Because no one was dumb enough to throw against him. His interceptions usually weren't luck: they were quarterback taunting.

He's probably not an NFL cornerback, but he'll be one hell of a safety.

4
by yeehaw (not verified) :: Fri, 04/28/2006 - 5:27pm

Reads kind of like a bunch of scary sycophants, actually.

5
by MRH (not verified) :: Fri, 04/28/2006 - 5:29pm

Smith got a Barry Sanders jersey just before Sanders' retirement and a Charlie Batch jersey just before Batch was cut. He now wears a Lions sweatshirt without any player's name on it.

Maybe you should get Millen's name put on it.

6
by Jeff (not verified) :: Fri, 04/28/2006 - 5:29pm

"It'd be interesting to do an analysis between the two, to establish if Gibbs does go max protect at a substantially higher rate"

The game charting project recorded number of blockers on each pass play. This could be used to determine how likely an offense was to keep extra blockers in. I don't have access to all the data though.

Actually, the game charting project recorded a lot of information about formations as well. One could probably do a fairly good breakdown of a team's offensive tendencies with this. If it's not already in the works.

7
by john aldrich (not verified) :: Fri, 04/28/2006 - 8:26pm

Regarding the 10 worst NFL Drafts specifically 1939 and 1943, Ki Aldrich was drafted #1 by the Cardinals in 1939. Until then, in history, no lineman had ever been drafted #1, so he was a great player. You forget as have so many that a war was going on(WW II)and unlike so many would have done today, he enlisted and sacrificed the prime of his playing career. He did not as you say "last two years" with the Cardinals, he was traded to the Redskins because "Singin"
Sammmy Baugh needed his friend and college teammate, Ki Aldrich, to deep snap him and protect him from the rush that helped land Sammy in the Hall of Fame. Ask Sammy. He lives in Rotan, Texas. Perhaps had he not enlisted to serve the country, history might have been kinder to him to the other wartime players and drafts. I would suspect that like you, many others are too young to recall this and factor it into their recounts of history.

8
by putnamp (not verified) :: Fri, 04/28/2006 - 10:06pm

#7 Wrong thread, sir.

9
by Sergio (not verified) :: Sat, 04/29/2006 - 2:09am

Now, the game charting project does record # of RB, FB, WR and TE on the field, but I'd say that's a long way from formation info...

The info gathered by it, though, is very useful. We'll probably see more about it in PFP '06...

10
by chris (not verified) :: Sun, 04/30/2006 - 3:44am

How happy should Giants fans be after getting the MDS seal of approval. Not only do they get the nod for team he mosts likes in the NFC (or at least the direction he most likes), but then they trade down for value and still pick up his most underrated player of the draft - Kiwanuka. I am a Giants fan and anything less than the NFC Championship game will be a disappointment this year. Of course, this all depends on Eli Manning ot Tiki Barber not getting hit by a truck.