21 Apr 2015, 08:42pm by Scott Kacsmar
We look at our early DVOA projections for 2015 to see which teams are impacted most by the schedule. Who decided the Jets only needed to play six true road games in 2015?
2 comments, Last at 23 Apr 2015, 2:32pm by RickD
20 Apr 2015, 11:56am by Andrew Healy
Andrew Healy has developed a new edition of Football Outsiders' QB projection system, now called QBASE. The new system looks at overall college performance, not just completion rate, adjusted for opponents and for the strength of your teammates. This ESPN Insider piece gives our projections for 2014, which are surprisingly high on Brett Hundley and low on Jameis Winston. (They are also high on Marcus Mariota, which may not be a surprise.) Another article here on FO next week will detail the differences between QBASE and the old LCF, and look at the new system's historic performance.
9 comments, Last at 23 Apr 2015, 5:47pm by Grendel13G
09 Apr 2015, 11:35am by Aaron Schatz
Following in the footsteps of ESPN's NBA coverage, ESPN Insider has put together a group of writers called the ESPN Insider NFL Front Office that mocks the conversations that would take place in a real front office. Mark Dominik serves as general manager, Herm Edwards as head coach, and Louis Riddick as director of pro personnel. Mel Kiper and Todd McShay take turns serving as director of college scouting, and yours truly holds the role of analytics department. This week we've been discussing what we would do with the top five picks in the draft were we running those five teams.
6 comments, Last at 14 Apr 2015, 1:13pm by speedegg
03 Apr 2015, 01:55pm by Aaron Schatz
Get a sneak peak at the top edge-rusher prospects according to our SackSEER system, which likes Vic Beasley and Randy Gregory but is lukewarm on Shane Ray and Dante Fowler.
3 comments, Last at 24 Apr 2015, 7:28am by dkalive
26 Mar 2015, 12:20pm by Aaron Schatz
Here are Nathan Forster's Playmaker Score projections for the top WR prospects of 2015. We've got Amari Cooper way ahead of everyone else, with some red flags for prized prospects like Kevin White (didn't produce until senior year) and Dorial Green-Beckham (didn't stand out compared to teammates). There will be an expanded piece with all the Playmaker Scores for 2015 (both "rating" and "projection") on FO next week, and then the same with Nathan's SackSEER projections for edge rushers: ESPN Insider next week and FO the week after.
1 comment, Last at 30 Mar 2015, 2:09am by Dan
07 Mar 2015, 10:41am by Aaron Schatz
A couple weeks ago in a look at bold moves teams could make in the NFC South, I threw out a quick mention of the idea that the Saints might look to trade Drew Brees and become the NFL's first tanking experiment. Today's article for ESPN fleshes that idea out a bit more with a point-counterpoint of why the Saints should trade Brees to tank, and why tanking wouldn't work in the NFL.
15 comments, Last at 18 Mar 2015, 11:41am by KilsonFlob
23 Feb 2015, 12:45pm by Aaron Schatz
Here are your Speed Scores for running backs who ran the 40 at the 2015 combine. Matt Waldman fave Karlos Williams is this year's Speed Score champ and a big-time sleeper. Melvin Gordon did fine. Colorado State's Dee Hart is undraftable.
14 Feb 2015, 03:29pm by Brian Fremeau
Which teams overachieve on the field with less recruiting success than their opponents, and which teams underachieve when fielding a more-talented roster?
28 Jan 2015, 04:47pm by Aaron Schatz
Hey, kids, it's my annual pre-Super Bowl numbers breakdown with Bill Simmons on the B.S. Report. This time, the Patriots aren't favored to win the game. Well, not by us, anyway. 50-50 all the way! We also talk about that other thing, so if you don't want to hear me say the same things I've been saying on Twitter about that thing, don't listen.
23 Jan 2015, 09:12am by Scott Kacsmar
"He just wins" is the most annoying thing someone can say about a quarterback, but the stats for Russell Wilson are too good to label him that way. Despite significant differences in how they play the position, Wilson's three-year start has been very similar to Tom Brady's first three years as a starter (2001-03). They both have an average rank of 10.3 in DVOA and DYAR (passing only) in those seasons. Fittingly, the Seahawks are looking to become the first repeat champion since the 2003-04 Patriots.
8 comments, Last at 27 Jan 2015, 4:51pm by Aaron Brooks Good Twin