13 Oct 2009
by Vince Verhei
The linked article talks about which leg of the defense/running game/game manager tripod is letting San Francisco down. It explains why Shaun Hill has been effective despite a negative DVOA, but it doesn't go into one weakness of his game: a reliance on checkdowns that is inflating his traditional statistics but hurting his DVOA.
In DVOA, plays are considered successful if they pick up 40 percent of the needed yardage on first down, 60 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third or fourth down. Hill has completed 30 passes that have failed to pick up meaningful yardage. That's tied for second in the league. Number one shouldn't be a surprise. Hey there, Trent Edwards.
|Most Failed Completions, 2009|
It may be surprising to see that Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, and Drew Brees have a lot of failed completions, but that's partly because they have a lot of completions, period. Here's the leaderboard of players with the highest failure rate among their completions.
|Highest Percentage of Failed Completions|
|Player||Team||Failed Comp. %|
Just to be clear, this is (failed completions) divided by (total completions). And Brees still shows up. Well, when you throw that many screens, they can't all work.
25 comments, Last at 14 Oct 2009, 2:13pm by coboney
One of the NFL's best receivers notched a -2.3% DVOA last year. Does a target-by-target breakdown show he was better than that?