Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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Any Given Sunday

The weekend's biggest upset goes under the Football Outsiders lens.

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08 Nov 2011

ESPN AGS: Giants over Patriots

The Patriots offense is in trouble, and the biggest component is the team's inability to stretch the field.

Posted by: Vince Verhei on 08 Nov 2011

15 comments, Last at 10 Nov 2011, 2:32pm by Karl Cuba

Comments

1
by QQ (not verified) :: Tue, 11/08/2011 - 3:09pm

Is AGS about a big upset from the week or just how 1 team was able to beat another team? I used to think Option A but assume Option B since NYG is above NE in DVOA

2
by tuluse :: Tue, 11/08/2011 - 3:13pm

They use Vegas lines to determine upsets not DVOA

10
by bravehoptoad :: Wed, 11/09/2011 - 8:23pm

And for some reason, this question has been the first comment on a number of AGS this season.

AGS is partly about making advanced stats look smart, so it's likely to feature a team that DVOA favors and Vegas or common wisdom does not.

11
by Vince Verhei :: Wed, 11/09/2011 - 9:51pm

There's also the "sex appeal" factor. Dolphins-Chiefs was essentially one bad team beating another. Giants-Pats was a Super Bowl contender suffering a surprising home loss. Especially to casual fans, that sells more Insider subscriptions.

3
by MessageBoard2 :: Tue, 11/08/2011 - 4:47pm

For Comparison sake, is their an offense that is good at throwing deep but doesn't score alot of points.

4
by Vince Verhei :: Tue, 11/08/2011 - 5:07pm

The Cowboys are currently 4th in success rate on deep balls, but 19th in points scored.

6
by Anonymous Dude (not verified) :: Wed, 11/09/2011 - 5:00pm

That's because they suck in the Red Zone. Whether it's luck, or scheme, or personnel, they've been very bad when they get within the 20.

8
by Eddo :: Wed, 11/09/2011 - 5:23pm

So, they indeed are "an offense that is good at throwing deep but doesn't score alot[sic] of points."

5
by andrew :: Wed, 11/09/2011 - 12:57pm

I had expected Dolphins over Chiefs....

7
by Karl Cuba :: Wed, 11/09/2011 - 5:14pm

Is a pass of 15 yards really deep, it's more intermediate isn't it? I would have thought 20+ yards to be deep and even then I'd want a bomb category as well.

9
by Vince Verhei :: Wed, 11/09/2011 - 7:14pm

A few things:

1) The NFL play-by-play sorts passes into "deep" or "short," with 15 yards the cutoff line. We can go in manually and sort them using whatever distance we want, but it takes a little longer.

2) When you start going over 20 or over 25 yards, you start to run into sample size issues, especially in half a season.

3) The average "deep" pass went 24.9 yards past the line of scrimmage. The median "deep" pass went 21 yards past the line of scrimmage. So it's not as if the data is dominated by 16-yarders.

12
by Karl Cuba :: Wed, 11/09/2011 - 10:52pm

Cheers Vince,

1) OK then that's entirely understandable. (which make my other comments seem pedantic but Im OK with that, it's FO)

2) I would have expected the sample size to reduce dramatically, it's a quick, short passing league.

3) Doesn't the combination of your points 2 & 3 mean that the mean and median averages would climb if you modified the criteria to a 20+ yard pass?

How long has the NFL measured 15 yards as deep? If predates the mid-70s then that yardstick could be out of date.

13
by Big-Hairy-Andy :: Thu, 11/10/2011 - 3:32am

Doesn't the combination of your points 2 & 3 mean that the mean and median averages would climb if you modified the criteria to a 20+ yard pass?

Presumably the removal of all the 15-19 yard pass plays would inherently cause the mean and median to increase, no?

14
by Vince Verhei :: Thu, 11/10/2011 - 6:25am

Yeah. By definition, if you remove the smallest numbers from any set of data, the mean and median will rise.

15
by Karl Cuba :: Thu, 11/10/2011 - 2:32pm

OK, I meant that it would climb precipitously.

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