Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

04 Nov 2010

ESPN: Both TCU And Utah Need Resume Boost

TCU and Utah will face off in the biggest regular season game in Mountain West and non-AQ history. Both the Horned Frogs and Utes have rather thin resumes to date, having played and defeated only one current F/+ top-40 team to date. Brian Fremeau breaks down the respective team resumes and finds most of the unit match-ups favor TCU.

Posted by: Brian Fremeau on 04 Nov 2010

6 comments, Last at 06 Nov 2010, 4:00pm by TomKelso

Comments

1
by TomKelso :: Fri, 11/05/2010 - 10:42am

So, which two aren't in the top 40 -- Baylor? Oregon State? Air Force? I'd insert the standard rant here, but someone would have to use a lot of math to convince me that all 3 of those schools aren't in the top 40.

Throw in Mel Kiper's dismissal of the Frogs and Utes this morning on Mike & Mike and the media aspect of the BCS (Big Conference Security) system is starting to warm up. TCU or Utah will get the "boost" they need by winning this game -- and if Oregon or Auburn lose, the winner here will EARN its slot in the national title game.

2
by Brian Fremeau :: Fri, 11/05/2010 - 11:02am

Air Force and Baylor just miss the top-40 cut in F/+ (42nd and 46th, respectively):
http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus2010

FEI has Baylor ranked 52nd and Air Force ranked 50th. I broke down Baylor's underwhelming FEI resume this week:
http://footballoutsiders.com/fei-ratings/2010/fei-week-9-ratings
Baylor's best win was 30-22 over FEI No. 44 Texas. They have close victories over No. 51 Kansas State and No. 71 Colorado. They have blowout wins over three teams ranked in the 100s. They have losses to No. 67 Texas Tech and a blowout loss to No. 12 TCU.

3
by TomKelso :: Sat, 11/06/2010 - 11:36am

I ask for math, I get math -- I love the way this site backs up its conclusions.

But I'm not sure you can include TCU blowing out Baylor as a reason for Baylor's low ranking -- that opens you up to circular reasoning: "Baylor can't be that good because TCU blew them out, so TCU can't be a top-10 team because they haven't played strong opponents; instead, they played Baylor."

How do the Frogs and Bears rank if you take that game out of the equation? Then a TCU blowout might be better viewed, depending on how Baylor ranks otherwise.

4
by cfn_ms :: Sat, 11/06/2010 - 12:32pm

I can't give you his reasoning... but remember, Baylor also lost to Texas Tech (a bad loss for a top 40 team), only beat a bad Rice team by 17, and probably took a schedule hit by playing a REALLY bad Buffalo team too.

Their main achievements were beating Kansas St and Texas. Nice wins, but not necessarily enough to overcome all the other games and make Baylor a top 40 rated team.

5
by TomKelso :: Sat, 11/06/2010 - 3:59pm

Oklahoma State is supplying its own brand of math to this discussion right now, as well...

6
by TomKelso :: Sat, 11/06/2010 - 4:00pm

sorry -- double posted somehow