31 Mar 2011
Previous efforts to calculate home field advantage have focused on the difference between a team's home and road performance. For this piece, I calculated retrodictive expected home and away game efficiency performances based on end-of-year FEI ratings. I then compared the actual game efficiency against those expectations in order to isolate home field advantage (and separately, road field disadvantage) for each team since 2003. In order to eliminate the noise of outliers, only games between teams within one standard deviation of FEI power (roughly 25-40 ranking places) were included.
Only the top-10 and bottom-10 in home field advantage and road field advantage were included in the piece. Let me know if you're curious about other specific teams.
Underrated home field advantage: Baylor Bears. Overrated home field advantage: Texas Longhorns. There are sample-size issues with this study, so I'll need to add a bit more historical depth. And we'll need to examine this much more closely to find out how to use it in forecasting, if at all.
13 comments, Last at 10 Apr 2011, 12:43pm by Brian Fremeau