03 Dec 2013
Team records are a function of performance and the strength of the opposition faced. Ohio State ranks ahead of Auburn in our FEI ratings, for instance, but, if the two teams swapped schedules, they likely also would swap records. According to our data, the Buckeyes would be 11-1 against Auburn's schedule and the Tigers would be 12-0 against Ohio State's schedule.
The possession efficiency data is also useful in projecting what might lie ahead for the remaining BCS title contenders. Florida State and Ohio State control their own destiny, but a trio of SEC contenders (Auburn, Alabama, and Missouri) could seize an opportunity to play for the title this weekend as well.
We compared each of the top five teams in the BCS against every team in the 2007 to 2012 seasons across five key measures -- opponent-adjusted offense, opponent-adjusted defense, special-teams efficiency, field-position advantage and overall FEI rating. Which teams from the recent past are most similar statistically to the BCS front-runners, and where might each end up when the dust settles this weekend?
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