Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

08 May 2013

ESPN: Oregon Tops Pac-12 FEI Projections

For an ESPN Insider series this week, I ran a first wave of FEI-based projections, identifying individual game win likelihoods based on team, offense, and defensive efficiency ratings. I then ran the win likelihood data through 1,000 trials to calculatethe frequency with which each team claimed a conference crown. According to this data set, the Oregon Ducks are the clear favorite in the Pac-12 North, and the USC Trojans are in position to take the South.

Posted by: Brian Fremeau on 08 May 2013

4 comments, Last at 10 May 2013, 5:36pm by cfn_ms

Comments

1
by IrishBarrister :: Thu, 05/09/2013 - 1:20pm

I've been following this series and I've been in large agreement so far (its percentages, so of course I'm not saying "yes, Alabama is exactly the 62% favorite"), but somehow I thought the gap between Stanford and Oregon would be smaller. Maybe Stanford's PFEI over the past few seasons is not as high as I thought, or Oregon's is a lot higher.

2
by Mood_Indigo (not verified) :: Fri, 05/10/2013 - 2:30pm

Whoever wins the Stanford-Oregon game at the Farm will likely win Pac-12 North. How did FEI predictions do last season in this regard?

3
by Kal :: Fri, 05/10/2013 - 5:28pm

Pretty well - though not well in other regards. FEI had Stanford and Oregon very close to each other in value. Then again, they also had ASU really close to Oregon, Arizona really close to Oregon and Kansas State really close to Oregon - so take that all with a grain of salt.

4
by cfn_ms :: Fri, 05/10/2013 - 5:36pm

http://preseason.stassen.com/prediction-accuracy/2012.html
FO did reasonably well overall, and was a touch above average on their Pac-12 picks (there's a big cluster mainly because just about everyone agreed on a lot of the projections, such as Oregon 1st in North, USC 1st in South, Colorado last in South, etc.)