28 Apr 2014
With spring practices wrapping up across the country, we are putting the final pieces of data together for our annual Football Outsiders projection model for the 2014 season. Factors in the drive-based FEI ratings portion include five-year program ratings, returning starters, recruiting success and quarterback reliance -- statistical indicators of teams that may take a step forward or a step back next year.
For this ESPN Insider series, we ran projections for team, offensive and defensive efficiency through the lens of our drive-based FEI ratings. We then calculated win likelihoods in each scheduled game, producing a projected overall regular-season record and the likelihood that each team would claim a conference crown in each of the Big Five conferences. We also included the likelihood that each team would finish the regular season with one loss or fewer, a likely benchmark for teams to position themselves for a berth in the inaugural national championship playoff.