Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

20 Nov 2008

Fantasy Matchups: Week 12

Week 12 of the FO Fantasy Matchups column goes against the advice of some other ESPN columnists and tells you to bench Brian Westbrook. For some backstory, we provide you with the history of running backs against teams with a -30% rushing defense DVOA.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 20 Nov 2008

26 comments, Last at 23 Nov 2008, 4:08am by Felden

Comments

1
by MCS :: Thu, 11/20/2008 - 4:27pm

"...On the other hand, if you're playing Chris Perry, bless your little heart. It's cute that you let your 6-year-old pick up a player off waivers. You still should have taught him better than to pick up Perry, though."

Actually, he's five and the player was Ben Roethlisberger.

2
by hector :: Thu, 11/20/2008 - 4:29pm

I'd feel better about Garcia if he had a two-touchdown game on his resume, something he hasn't done all year. Heck, the Bucs never seem to score more than two offensive touchdowns in any week, it's been three months. I see Warrick Dunn taking most advantage of the paper Lions this week, not nine-cups-of-coffee Garcia.

3
by DFJinPgh (not verified) :: Thu, 11/20/2008 - 4:55pm

1. Berrian or White?

2. Brees or Orton?

Tough to bench Drew and Roddy. Anybody want to justify it?

8
by abernethyj :: Thu, 11/20/2008 - 5:41pm

In this case I would roll the dice with both Berrian and Orton. Both are serviceable and the other two have terrible matchups this week.

4
by Jacob Rosen (not verified) :: Thu, 11/20/2008 - 5:03pm

Ronnie Brown or Peyton Hillis? Hillis has to be good for a TD or two, but Brown was great against NE last time...

7
by abernethyj :: Thu, 11/20/2008 - 5:39pm

I'd play Hillis; the Dolphins are probably going to be taking advantage of the Pats' awful secondary most of the day.

5
by bman (not verified) :: Thu, 11/20/2008 - 5:13pm

Hmm, any comments on one of Kyle Orton (STL), Kerry Collins (NYJ) or Tony Romo (SF)? I am leaning toward Orton since Romo is Gimpy and NYJ have a decent defense.

Is it ok to post this here as the Open Fantasy Football Discussion thread seems pretty much dead?

9
by abernethyj :: Thu, 11/20/2008 - 5:44pm

Yeah, I don't know what's up with that other thread. I tried posting there a couple months ago but it seemed like a ghost town. I try to post here every week.

I would play Romo; it doesn't look like the finger is going to give him any trouble. He looked fine in the second half last week and he's obviously had the extra rest between then and now. If you're worried, though, Orton should be just about as good this week against the Rams.

10
by Dales :: Thu, 11/20/2008 - 5:50pm

I'd be playing Romo in that one.

6
by bman (not verified) :: Thu, 11/20/2008 - 5:18pm

Jacob Rosen: Something tellse me NE will be ready for Miami this time. They have been running this in practice with Faulk so it shouldn'e be as effective. Plus Mayo is really coming on strong and didn't bite when the Jets tried to run it. Just my 2 cents.

11
by Love is like a bottle of gin (not verified) :: Thu, 11/20/2008 - 6:38pm

2 of Addai/Portis(dinged up)/Parker(also dinged up)/Slaton

any thoughts?

16
by abernethyj :: Fri, 11/21/2008 - 12:00pm

Hope you didn't play Parker last night.

Hard to go wrong with any of the remaining three, but Portis is the least likely to play, so I would go Addai and Slaton until you hear Portis will get the majority of carries.

12
by Love is like a bottle of gin (not verified) :: Thu, 11/20/2008 - 6:39pm

2 of Addai/Portis(dinged up)/Parker(also dinged up)/Slaton

any thoughts?

13
by Tundrapat (not verified) :: Thu, 11/20/2008 - 6:53pm

Do you have any idea of ridiculous it is to solicit advice from complete strangers online, ESPECIALLY when you're asking on a website that's devoted to football statistics?

It's not hard - look at the DVOA, look at the opposing teams DVOA against that position, and play your people.

Or...you could ask a bunch of complete strangers, who don't even know your league's scoring system, what their 'hunches' say.

Your call.

15
by Love is like a bottle of gin (not verified) :: Thu, 11/20/2008 - 9:27pm

Rather than "soliciting advice" I prefer to think of it as "trolling for thoughts that hadn't occurred to me". I already have a decision, just keeping my options open. As to what the matchups/statistics are, I know that as well, but there are a lot of astute observers of the game about on this website so it doesn't hurt seeing if someone has an insight. I only bother asking questions when I don't feel 100% comfortable with a decision (which has been twice this year over 3 leagues). I win nearly every league I am in, probably due to an open mindthat isn't afraid to take help from wherever it comes. :)

Traditionally this thread is always spammed with FF questions and advice, if you are not interested in such things why come here?

17
by DFJinPgh (not verified) :: Fri, 11/21/2008 - 1:16pm

>> It's not hard - look at the DVOA, look at the opposing teams DVOA against that position, and play your people.

Because, of course, everyone here knows that DVOA tells all, and there is absolutely no insight to be gained by asking a group of knowledgeable football fans, many of which follow very closely teams I cannot, if there is anything DVOA isn't telling us.

14
by andrew :: Thu, 11/20/2008 - 7:06pm

It seems incredibly unlikely that he won't go over 100 on Sunday.

Um... wouldn't it have been easier to follow if you'd just said "incredibly likely that he will go over 100...."?

18
by buzzy (not verified) :: Fri, 11/21/2008 - 3:22pm

WR (pick 2): Derrick Mason, Justin Gage, Greg Camarillo, Mark Bradley?

RB: Fred Jackson, or JJ Arrington?

19
by Love is like a bottle of gin (not verified) :: Fri, 11/21/2008 - 4:45pm

I like Mason, Gage and Arrington (should get the goaline carries).

20
by abernethyj :: Fri, 11/21/2008 - 5:01pm

Mason, Camarillo (New England's pass defense is awful) and Arrington.

21
by Alaskan Viking (not verified) :: Fri, 11/21/2008 - 6:18pm

Which WR would you sit this week?
Donald Driver @NO
Braylon Edwards @Hou
Kevin Walter @Cle
Wes Welker @Mia

(I'm leaning towards Edwards who, according to the article, has the least favorable matchup)

Which RB would you sit?
Brandon Jacobs @Ari (currently listed as Probable, Knee)
Matt Forte @StL
Jonathan Stewart @Atl

(I currently have Stewart on the bench.)

22
by abernethyj :: Fri, 11/21/2008 - 11:02pm

I'm with you. Sit Edwards and Stewart. All that 5-Hour Energy has made Edwards so jittery he can't catch passes anymore, and Stewart isn't seeing enough carries to warrant playing him above the other two.

23
by Danny (not verified) :: Sat, 11/22/2008 - 12:00pm

Which two should I start at RB?

Warrick Dunn @ DET
Ryan Grant @ NO
Marion Barber vs SF [I think this is a lock, but just making sure]
Thomas Jones @ TEN (Prob. not)

24
by abernethyj :: Sat, 11/22/2008 - 2:01pm

Barber and Dunn.

25
by danny (not verified) :: Sat, 11/22/2008 - 7:39pm

Thanks :)

26
by Felden (not verified) :: Sun, 11/23/2008 - 4:08am

OK, third WR/TE slot:

do I go with
Issac Bruce (DAL)
Derrick Mason (PHI, and questionable)
Steve Breaston (NYG)
John Carlson (WAS)