Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

18 Sep 2008

FO on ESPN: Week 3 Matchups

Matchup analysis this week highlights how Ryan Grant's good day of football didn't translate into good fantasy production.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 18 Sep 2008

19 comments, Last at 21 Sep 2008, 12:55pm by abernethyj

Comments

1
by johonny (not verified) :: Thu, 09/18/2008 - 7:50pm

It's even worse when you consider the Dolphins have decided to not use Ginn to return kicks this year. Cutting his value a lot since their lack of defense generally generates a lot of kick returns.

2
by Boomer Lowe (not verified) :: Thu, 09/18/2008 - 9:10pm

I'll repeat myself:

Sage Rosenfels didn't play all 8 quarters vs. the Titans last year.. Schaub started the first game & played almost all of the first half..

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/playbyplay?game_id=29287&displayPage=tab_p...

That's the second time I've read that here...

Let the misinformation about Sage stop now!

Boomer.

3
by TCH (not verified) :: Fri, 09/19/2008 - 2:05am

So here's the question...I have Reggie Wayne, Santonio Holmes, and Greg Jennings in my league, but only two spots for WR. Scoring is 1 pt / 10 yards and 6 for a TD, w/ -2 for a fumble lost.

Who do I start?

4
by Ivarsson.se :: Fri, 09/19/2008 - 3:22am

Might not be the right place to ask, but where did Taniers Rundown end up?

7
by RMGreen :: Fri, 09/19/2008 - 12:07pm

It's been incorporated into 'Walkthrough'.

5
by burbman (not verified) :: Fri, 09/19/2008 - 10:59am

2 starter questions - Peyton Manning sans offensive line, or Aaron Rodgers?
Also Fred Taylor, again sans offensive line or Steve Slaton?

6
by abernethyj :: Fri, 09/19/2008 - 11:56am

@TCH: I'd start Holmes and Jennings this week.

@burbman: Peyton and Taylor. I wouldn't touch any Houston players this week; I'm sitting Schaub, Johnson, and Slaton in a variety of leagues.

My own question: Norwood or Ray Rice? Rice is the starting back, but Norwood has a more favorable matchup and has been better thus far. I'm inclined to go with Norwood.

12
by Burbman (not verified) :: Fri, 09/19/2008 - 5:30pm

Thanks for the feedback, I'm still concerned about those offensive lines. I think I would go with Norwood as well.

15
by abernethyj :: Sat, 09/20/2008 - 1:17am

Peyton gets Saturday back this week, which should help a lot.

http://www.profootballtalk.com/2008/09/19/clark-saturday-back-for-colts/

8
by Reinhard (not verified) :: Fri, 09/19/2008 - 1:40pm

really useful information, organization a little poor.
please make it start them vs. sit them.

for example isntead of:
Flacco, +9% DVOA (???)

say:
start Flacco over Schaub

13
by countertorque :: Fri, 09/19/2008 - 8:16pm

I like the format. I agree that it's not clear where the percentage comes from. However, I really like the relative measure of who's good to start and by how much. The fact that it's a mathematical projection instead of some bozo pulling names out of a hat is what makes this the premier start or sit fantasy article.

9
by Reinhard (not verified) :: Fri, 09/19/2008 - 1:41pm

really useful information, organization a little poor.
please make it start them vs. sit them.

for example isntead of:
Flacco, +9% DVOA (???)

say:
start Flacco over Schaub

10
by abernethyj :: Fri, 09/19/2008 - 2:32pm

Not everyone has every set of players (i.e. Flacco and Schaub), so it doesn't make sense to say "start Player X over Player Y," but I do agree that it would be a bit helpful to have a delineation between positive and negative DVOA against baseline - just have a separator between the positive and negative values in the table on the right, and have some easy way to see which players have beneficial matchups in the comments section in addition to the plus/minus rating next to the player's name. Also, it would be helpful if you could put the player's opponent (Matt Schaub, HOU QB, @TEN, -9%) in parentheses as well.

11
by Anonymous (not verified) :: Fri, 09/19/2008 - 3:58pm

Santana Moss at Arizona or Andre Johnson at Tennessee. I know in a vacuum Johnson is obviously better, but is the Titans defense good enough just justify sitting him?

14
by jimmo :: Sat, 09/20/2008 - 1:13am

Yes, start Andre Johnson, every week. Moss is a decent play this week, but too inconsistent. Who's your other receiver(s)?

16
by Mystyc :: Sat, 09/20/2008 - 1:39am

So, here's an odd question about who to start in flex: MJD against the Sanders-less Colts, a gimpy LaDanian Tomlinson, or DeSean Jackson against the Steelers? I'm leaning towards Jackson, although MJD's matchup looks suddenly soft. Or am I just being crazy leaving Tomlinson on the bench?

18
by abernethyj :: Sun, 09/21/2008 - 12:53pm

Probably too late for a response here as you've likely already set your lineups, but Will Carroll says Tomlinson should be good to go by Monday night; I'd play him in your last spot.

17
by JoseTortilla (not verified) :: Sat, 09/20/2008 - 9:43am

This week's dilemma for me is...

Who to sit among: Addai, Brandon Jacobs, Clinton Portis, and LdT?
(this toe thing is really depressing)

19
by abernethyj :: Sun, 09/21/2008 - 12:55pm

What a stacked lineup! Tough to sit any of them (you've probably already made your decision by now anyway) but I'd have to sit Tomlinson out of the four; his injury is the most worrisome, and the other three all have pretty favorable matchups.