Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

11 Sep 2008

Week 2 Fantasy Matchups

This week's fantasy matchups column sees big things for Big Blue.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 11 Sep 2008

19 comments, Last at 13 Sep 2008, 12:25pm by abernethyj

Comments

1
by Joey Jo-Jo Junior Shabbadu (not verified) :: Thu, 09/11/2008 - 8:31pm

Correct link in my name.

2
by Lou (not verified) :: Thu, 09/11/2008 - 8:56pm

ok, 2 who to start questions:

Earnest Graham or Chris Johnson?

and Donavan McNabb or Aaron Rodgers?

3
by Lance (not verified) :: Thu, 09/11/2008 - 9:33pm

johnson vs cin
maybe graham...gruden said he wanted to give more carries

Coin Toss on QB haven't seen Mcnabb and the wr's play a real secondary yet.

4
by Man Child (not verified) :: Thu, 09/11/2008 - 10:26pm

I really appreciate the reflection on the results from last week. I don't remember this from last year, and mostly nobody does that anywhere else, except to cherry pick "We told you Randy Moss was a 'sleeper' in 2007!!! Subscribe now!" without looking at all the other predictions that were wrong or off. Thank you.

5
by DrObviousSo (not verified) :: Thu, 09/11/2008 - 10:38pm

Super deep league: Bryant Johnson, or Justin Gage.

Yes, it's that bad.

6
by bub (not verified) :: Thu, 09/11/2008 - 11:04pm

#2 Graham and Rodgers. EG will get more carries and the DET secondary will get torched again.
#5 Probably Gage.

I need to start three of the following (2WR; TE/WR flex): Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Joey Galloway or Jason Witten. Who should sit?

7
by SamoanRob (not verified) :: Fri, 09/12/2008 - 12:30am

#6 is tough. I'd start both Packers.

Then it's an old injured guy w/a new/old QB and tasty matchup vs. prime stud TE on MNF against tough D

I pick Galloway.

8
by SamoanRob (not verified) :: Fri, 09/12/2008 - 12:35am

You Pick Two:
Maurice Jones-Drew vs. BUF, Chris Johnson at CIN, Steve Slaton vs. BAL, Tim Hightower vs. MIA, Rashard Mendenhall at CLE, Devery Henderson at WAS

9
by Lou (not verified) :: Fri, 09/12/2008 - 2:04am

3,6
thanks, im still not totally sure what im going to do at rb, i think i'll start rodgers though.

5
probably gage

6
the packers and witten. i wouldnt trust griese.

8
id go with Johnson for sure, and um.. hrmm MJD i think. His teams banged up but he'll still get touches.

10
by Ivarsson, Sweden (not verified) :: Fri, 09/12/2008 - 2:23am

For a RB/WR slot I have Earnest Graham @ ATL or one of the Texans Andre Johnson or Steve Slaton vs BAL, who do I play?

11
by TJ (not verified) :: Fri, 09/12/2008 - 6:57am

I've just read the article..and I'm a little confused. R.Moss does not appear on the list. My other WR are S.Holmes, Galloway, Cotchery - who all are on the list. So, is week 2 matchups suggesting to play my other WRs over Moss (since he is not on list)?

Thanks

12
by Eddo (not verified) :: Fri, 09/12/2008 - 8:44am

11 (TJ): The article only lists players who are affected by more than 5% DVOA (positively or negatively) by their matchup. Moss not being on the list means playing against the Jets shouldn't help him or hurt him very much.
To decide if you should play Moss, you need to figure out what Holmes, Cotchery, and Galloway will be worth after you factor in their opponent adjustments, and then determine if they're worth playing over Moss.
In your situation, I would play:

Moss (he's still your best bet, and I expect Cassel to force things to him when in doubt)
Holmes (the Cowboys torched the Browns last week)
Cotchery (has a better QB throwing to him than Galloway does)

I will say, it's a close call with your three non-Moss WR, so if you have a good feeling about Galloway, you could reasonably play him over Holmes or Cotchery.
---
After recently trading Ryan Grant to a RB-desperate owner for Randy Moss and Vernon Davis (my old TE was Marcedes Lewis, blech), I now face this dilemma (my league gives 1 pt for every 7.5 receiving yards, 1 pt for every 10 rushing yards):
Pick three of the following WR:

Reggie Wayne (vs MIN)
Randy Moss (vs NYJ)
Plaxico Burress (vs STL)
Greg Jennings (vs DET)

Since all four have favorable matchups, I'm leaning toward sitting Jennings, as he's the worst of the four in a neutral setting. Thoughts?

13
by Flounder (not verified) :: Fri, 09/12/2008 - 8:57am

Lou,

I have Rodgers and McNabb as well. I decided to go with Rodgers. The match-up just seems so favorable. My fingers are crossed!

14
by Luz (not verified) :: Fri, 09/12/2008 - 9:25am

Favre vs. NE (gulp) or Schaub vs. Bal (double gulp). White Cassel is still on the waiver wire...

15
by John (not verified) :: Fri, 09/12/2008 - 3:07pm

Am I crazy for wanting to sit Addai (MIN, concussion) in favor of Chris Johnson (CIN) this week?

16
by Jeremy (not verified) :: Fri, 09/12/2008 - 3:15pm

RE #2 & #13: Same QB dilemma as you guys. I'm going with Rodgers.
RE #14: I would go with Favre.
RE #15: No, I certainly wouldn't call that crazy.

For TE, Owen Daniels (against Bal) or Anthony Fasano (@Ari)? I've got Fasano in right now, but I keep thinking I am overestimating his performance from last week.

17
by Mystyc (not verified) :: Fri, 09/12/2008 - 5:37pm

14: I might go with Cassel, actually. I certainly would not pit Matt Shaub against Ed Reed, and I think NE will manage to hold the ball for a lot of that game. And hey, any QB with "Jump Ball to Randy Moss" in the playbook is going to score some points. But if you have the risk tolerance for it, Favre is a decent play, and it saves you having to free up a spot.

15: That's not crazy. Cincinnati's defense looks terrible, and their offense didn't show a lot of ability to keep them off the field.

I'm glad people are talking about Rodgers over McNabb. I'm seriously considering starting Rodgers over Brees -- no Colston vs. Detroit defense is compelling stuff. Or am I off the deep end?

18
by Tom D (not verified) :: Fri, 09/12/2008 - 6:05pm

Since the forums are temporarily down, I'll ask here. Should I start Lee Evans or Patrick Crayton?

19
by abernethyj :: Sat, 09/13/2008 - 12:25pm

17: I would certainly start Rodgers over Brees this week - Washington's defense is no great shakes, but any matchup against the Lions is worth exploiting.

18: I'm not a huge Crayton fan (he was on my roster for most of last season and was pretty inconsistent), coupled with the fact that both are facing fairly good pass defenses, and I would go with Evans this week.