Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

02 Oct 2009

ESPN: Week 4 Fantasy Matchups

Included in this week's fantasy matchups is a not-totally-scientific analysis of whether Denver will remain an elite defense.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 02 Oct 2009

4 comments, Last at 02 Oct 2009, 4:14pm by bird jam

Comments

1
by dafrk3in :: Fri, 10/02/2009 - 2:22pm

I'm having a bit of trouble deciding between Glen Coffee and McFadden for my flex spot this weekend. Any suggestions?

2
by The Ninjalectual :: Fri, 10/02/2009 - 3:50pm

"DVOA doesn't adjust for the quality of the opposition this early in the season..."

Wouldn't that make it VOA?

"Just look at that pumpkin."
-John Madden, looking at the moon.

3
by Boston Dan :: Fri, 10/02/2009 - 4:06pm

disclaimer: I do not subscribe to ESPN Insider, but do subscribe to FO premium.

In my league there are only ten teams, so plenty of D/ST units on the free agent list.

I dumped Denver after last week.

Going forward, targeting D/ST that play the Raiders, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Rams, Dolphins, Browns and maybe the Lions.

This week I've got the Bengals at the Browns. Also holding onto to the Jets and monitoring their injuries.

Jets opponents week 5-8 are Dolphins, Bills, Raiders, Dolphins. Jets also play the Bucs during week 14.

Might look to grab the Broncos again later on and they should be available after this next run of games through their bye week. Broncos play the Chiefs in week 13 and Raiders in week 15.

Redskins play the Chiefs in week 6, so keep an eye on Greg's bus this weekend. The Redskins play at Oakland in week 14.

Getting back to the Bengals, they have a nice run starting in week 11 against the Raiders, week 12 against the Browns, week 13 against the Lions and week 16 against the Chiefs.

****

If going forward I could hold a combination of any three it would be the Jets, Bengals and Broncos...

None of these defenses were drafted in my league, note that I haven't mentioned any of the household names - the Ravens, Giants, Vikings, Eagles, Packers, Bears, Steelers, etc. who were drafted and will most likely never become available via free agency.

In our 15 round draft, I never take a defense higher than in round 14.

4
by bird jam :: Fri, 10/02/2009 - 4:14pm

I play in an auction league, but I never spend more than $1 on a defense and I spend every year playing matchups just like you do. In my league's scoring system last year, the team facing the worst offensive team (the Bengals) averaged as many points per week as the highest-scoring fantasy defense (the Steelers.)

You can't always predict which offense will yield the most fantasy defense points every week, but by Week 4 or 5 you have a pretty good idea of who to target. Right now, the teams giving up the most fantasy points to defenses are:

Panthers, Car
Browns, Cle
Raiders, Oak
Dolphins, Mia
Chiefs, KC
Buccaneers, TB

In that order. The Panthers' score is heavily skewed by their Week 1 disaster against Philly. As the year goes on, I would expect the Rams and Lions to climb up there too.