Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

16 Sep 2010

ESPN: Fantasy Matchups 2010, Week 2

This week's fantasy matchups column reviews some of the things that happened in Week 1 of the 2009 season as part of National Jump to Conclusions Week.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 16 Sep 2010

8 comments, Last at 17 Sep 2010, 9:38am by Boo-urns

Comments

1
by Fontes of Wayne :: Thu, 09/16/2010 - 3:27pm

Bradshaw with an unfavorable matchup? I realize last week was just one week, but Indy wasn't great at run D last year, and isn't projected to be very good at it this year, unless I mis-read something.

6
by speedegg :: Thu, 09/16/2010 - 6:19pm

The system is probably taking into account the Colts offense will score, the Giants have to play catch-up, and the offense will have to pass, using Bradshaw less.

Not sure if it's taking into account TE Boss is out this week with a concussion.

2
by alien1rock :: Thu, 09/16/2010 - 3:45pm

Curious why Charles, Jones, Cassel and Chambers are all included in favorable matchups, but not Bowe?

3
by JasonG (not verified) :: Thu, 09/16/2010 - 4:10pm

Benson and the Bengals play the Ravens this week, not the Steelers. Is this just an oversight in the write up or did you run the Bengals O against the Steelers D for this week? If the latter, then I am forced to ask which other matchups you might have misrun. It is odd that the Chicago D, that you had pegged as #2 before the year and was dominant in Week 1 (besides the prevent D on the last drive) has not led to a number of Cowgirls getting -5% or worse projections this week.

4
by JasonG (not verified) :: Thu, 09/16/2010 - 4:16pm

The Bears pass D is below average, so I can see Romo and Austin doing fine. But the Bears run D is awesome as are their LBs in coverage, so I would have expected huge negatives for the Dallas RBs and TEs. No?

5
by Bill Barnwell :: Thu, 09/16/2010 - 4:32pm

I wanted to make a comment about Benson's performance against the Steelers and how it colors how he performed against the Ravens last year, but I got the two mixed in my head and ended up writing about the totally wrong team. The comment should be:

Cedric Benson was able to run for 100-plus yards against the Ravens twice last year, including a game that broke the Ravens' streak of stopping 100-yard rushers. It took him 61 carries to run for 237 yards, an unimpressive 3.9 yards per carry. For Benson to get that sort of yardage again, he's going to need to hope that the Bengals are beating the Ravens. That seems unlikely to happen.

7
by Boo-urns (not verified) :: Fri, 09/17/2010 - 9:31am

Obviously, Jets pass defense is good, but that being said, how much does the system account for defenses adjusting to a new look?

i.e., when the Wildcat came out, obviously it became less effective over time, to the point where I now suspect it is largely just another play, based on the effectiveness of the personnel running it (much like the screen or other tactics).

it seems to me like the Jets' tactic of stacking the line and threatening zero blitzes on every play looks a lot like the Wildcat in that respect. last year, they kind of took the league by storm with it, and it was particularly effective with Revis jamming the other team's #1 WR. but over time, maybe opposing coaches have figured it out. i look to the dramatic difference in performances between game 1 and 2 last year between the Jets and Patriots, and the relatively decent performance (yards, not points) by the Ravens this past Monday night, and wonder if we won't see a significant drop in the Jets' pass defense.

obviously, they have some great personnel, but to the extent that the scheme also gave them a huge edge last year, i would expect that advantage to be eroded this year. Pats will be a good test, as they seem pretty loaded in their pass offense.

8
by Boo-urns (not verified) :: Fri, 09/17/2010 - 9:38am

Also, what accounts for the 2% difference between Vick and Kolb? Does the system differentiate between "pocket passers" and "mobile passers"? Lefty vs. righty? Convicted felons vs. other?