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07 Dec 2011
ESPN: Week 14 Fantasy Matchups
For many, it's fantasy postseason time, so I take one last look at DVOA-based strengths of schedule. Elsewhere, after 13 weeks, I finally get to selfishly feature 49ers in the player capsules.
2 comments, Last at 21 Dec 2011, 1:01am by Danny Tuccitto
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Comments
Re: ESPN: Week 14 Fantasy Matchups
Why is Darren Sproles always a negative in these projections? I mean seriously, seems like every week hes in the negative section. Pretty ridiculous seeing as hes probably had 1/2 bad games all year.
Re: ESPN: Week 14 Fantasy Matchups
It's because "number of touches" is such a huge predictor of fantasy scoring for RBs, and projecting a RB's touches is part of the analysis. Sproles only gets like 30% of NO's RB touches, give or take 10% in a given week depending on the matchup. Generally, if he doesn't score a TD, and/or if you're not in a PPR league (non-PPR is the FO default), he's only a mediocre fantasy option.
TDs aren't all that predictable (esp. for a receiving RB), and Sproles' touch projection tends to be low in comparison to other RBs, so the extent to which his matchup affects his scoring is very low.
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