Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

20 Oct 2011

ESPN: Week 7 Fantasy Matchups

In this week's column, we use DVOA to identify the easiest and toughest remaining fantasy schedules. Not that anyone's roster is overflowing with them, but the stats say to avoid Browns players from here out.

Posted by: Danny Tuccitto on 20 Oct 2011

4 comments, Last at 20 Oct 2011, 7:33pm by BroncFan07

Comments

1
by GregH :: Thu, 10/20/2011 - 3:54pm

Wait, Rivers is -23? If I understand the points system, that means he's expected to score 23 fewer points against the Jets than he would against an average defense. How is that even possible? He hasn't topped 23 points all season. Do you guys expect him to score negative points against the Jets? Am I really better off starting Alex Smith on his bye than Philip Rivers against the Jets?

2
by Danny Tuccitto :: Thu, 10/20/2011 - 4:55pm

Well, the technically correct interpretation is that matchup factors suggest Rivers will score 23 points less than the average quarterback. Of course, that's practically impossible. Just chalk the actual number up to regression equation shenanigans, and go with the general idea that he's the worst start of the week.

Oh, and by all means, this 49ers fan approves of you starting Smith on bye. He's THAT awesome!

3
by Urgh (not verified) :: Thu, 10/20/2011 - 5:32pm

I'm just not sure I can bring myself to start Palmer or Tebow over Rivers.

4
by BroncFan07 :: Thu, 10/20/2011 - 7:33pm

Sigh. Yet another example of why I don't understand why KUBIAK liked Phil Rivers over every other QB before the season, at least as far as my league points. I finally got him in one of my leagues (Aaron Rodgers was already taken) and quickly realized, wow, THIS is the year I get Phil Rivers. Mind you, I thought he would have a huge fantasy year (for reasons that escape me) and it was my own pick. I'm just glad I was smart enough to take Rodgers first in my other league, and having him as your fantasy QB is as glorious as one can imagine.