Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

20 Nov 2015, 01:28pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: NFL's Luckiest and Unluckiest Teams

Here's an article on ESPN Insider looking at which teams are likely to see regression in the second half because of elements of the game that are either out of their control or simply non-predictive. Among the items analyzed: performance in close games, fumble recovery rates, dropped passes by opponents, dropped interceptions, and performance by opposing kickers.

» More...


05 Nov 2015, 03:05pm by Andrew Healy

ESPN: Unbeaten Teams' Odds of Staying Perfect

This ESPN Insider piece looks at each of the 7-0 teams and their chances of going unbeaten through each of the remaining games on the schedule. The Patriots' have the best chance, but it's important to remember that three of these teams' toughest games of the year will come in the postseason. So New England's 7.1 percent chance of going 16-0 only works out to a 2.3 percent chance of going 19-0.

» More...


04 Nov 2015, 02:05pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Hardest/Easiest Schedules Remaining

Today's ESPN Insider feature looks at the teams with the toughest and easiest remaining schedules. Rather than simply using average DVOA of remaining opponents, we ranked schedules by going through game-by-game to figure out how often an average (0.0%) DVOA team would be expected to win each game, accounting for both the opponent and whether the game was on the road or at home.

» More...

3 comments, Last at 04 Nov 2015, 7:57pm by Anon Ymous

29 Oct 2015, 03:40pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Handicapping NFL Divisional Races

This ESPN feature looks at the divisional races using our playoff odds simulation. There don't look to be a lot of competitive races this year, but there's a good one between the Falcons and Panthers, plus the scrum in the NFC East, and whatever you call the mess in the AFC South -- where 10 percent of our simulations end up with a 6-10 team winning the division.

» More...


27 Oct 2015, 12:24pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Lions Lead Wide-Open Race for No. 1 Pick

This article counts down the top ten teams that have a shot at the top pick in 2016. Although no team has established itself as the clear favorite to pick No. 1, there is a fairly significant gap between Lions and the rest of the league. It's not because Detroit is the worst team in the league; our ratings currently put them ahead of Houston and San Francisco. But at 1-6, the Lions are tied for the NFL's worst record, and their schedule gets tougher the rest of the way, partly because of the split between home and road games.

» More...

3 comments, Last at 28 Oct 2015, 11:47am by ChrisS

22 Oct 2015, 02:46pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Patriots Head List of NFL's Top Offenses

This week's ESPN Insider feature takes a closer look at what's working and what might be the weaknesses for the top five offenses by DVOA so far: New England, Cincinnati, Arizona, Green Bay, and Pittsburgh.

» More...

3 comments, Last at 23 Oct 2015, 10:21am by nat

14 Oct 2015, 04:41pm by Sterling Xie

ESPN: Best Front Sevens of 2015

Using stats from FO and ESPN Stats & Information, we look at the best front sevens so far in 2015. Denver and the Jets are 1-2. Tennessee is a surprising No. 3. And surprisingly struggling so far this year: Buffalo and Houston, despite all the talent on those defensive lines.

» More...

6 comments, Last at 17 Oct 2015, 6:58pm by LionInAZ

13 Oct 2015, 11:04am by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Best Offensive Lines of 2015

Using a series of metrics, we look at the best offensive lines of 2015 so far. Cincinnati is No. 1, Atlanta a surprising No. 2. Even more surprising: Dallas doesn't make the top ten, which brings up even more questions about how much the offensive line makes the running back or vice versa.

» More...

3 comments, Last at 13 Oct 2015, 5:47pm by ChicagoRaider

08 Oct 2015, 02:03pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Defense Could Put Packers Over The Top

The Packers are automatic Super Bowl contenders because of their offense. But they only become leading Super Bowl contenders if the defense can be better than average. And so far this season, the Packers defense is on an upswing, despite weaknesses against scrambling quarterbacks and third-and-long situations.

» More...


07 Oct 2015, 12:22pm by Scott Kacsmar

ESPN: Most Aggressive and Conservative QBs on Third Down

Which quarterbacks push the envelope on third down, and which are comfortable playing it safe? Our new ALEX metric (Air Less EXpected) tells you who is always throwing short of the sticks, starting with the patron saint of Alex, Mr. Smith.

» More...