Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

12 Feb 2016, 09:52am by Scott Kacsmar

ESPN: Three Teams That Can Follow Denver's Blueprint

At ESPN Insider, we highlighted the three teams most capable of copying Denver's unusual blueprint for a Super Bowl win: the Jets, Chiefs and Vikings. This was not supposed to be the era where you can win by getting so little out of the offense, but Denver did it with the best defense in the league, built with many great free-agent pickups and high draft picks. While the Broncos did not just come out of nowhere to succeed, that is why we picked three double-digit win teams from 2015 that with enough growth could ride their defense to a championship in 2016.

» More...

8 comments, Last at 13 Feb 2016, 2:21pm by ammek

26 Jan 2016, 02:06pm by Scott Kacsmar

ESPN: Denver and Carolina Used Free Agency Well

Denver and Carolina will meet in Super Bowl 50, but it was really a five-year path for both teams to get to this point. The top two defenses in DVOA this year, each built their strongest unit with high draft picks and a few free-agent deals. In fact, Denver had 45.9 percent of its offensive and defensive snaps from free agents this season, the highest percentage for any Super Bowl team since 2006. The Panthers surprisingly come in second at 37.8 percent, but their moves were not as flashy as John Elway's big-name signings. We recap some of the team's best decisions to build these Super Bowl rosters.

» More...

11 comments, Last at 04 Feb 2016, 10:07pm by yazilisohbet

21 Jan 2016, 12:33pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Cardinals' Blitz-Heavy Strategy Could Backfire Against Newton

A little preview of the NFC Championship preview coming Friday on Football Outsiders. Arizona blitzes more than any other team in the league, but it may not be a good strategy against Cam Newton.

» More...

0 comments

20 Jan 2016, 03:27pm by Scott Kacsmar

ESPN: Manning's Playoff Career Worthy of More Respect

Over at ESPN Insider, a look at Tom Brady and Peyton Manning's playoff records. So often wins and losses come down to one play, and the difference between Brady's 22-8 and Manning's 12-13 is heavily determined by six specific plays where neither quarterback was even on the field: four field goals and two plays by defenders named Moore. We'll be expanding this article with a look at similar plays for other current top quarterbacks in a second article on Football Outsiders next week.

» More...

233 comments, Last at 26 Jan 2016, 4:28pm by Eleutheria

14 Jan 2016, 02:30pm by Andrew Healy

ESPN: How Kansas City Can Knock Off Patriots

Get a bit of a preview of tomorrow's Football Outsiders playoff previews, as Andrew Healy looks at some of the matchups that could favor Kansas City against New England despite the loss of Jeremy Maclin.

» More...

8 comments, Last at 15 Jan 2016, 10:51pm by mehllageman56

13 Jan 2016, 01:43pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Seahawks' Four-Year Run is Second to None

In an ESPN Insider column today, I looked at DVOA over the last four seasons, including the playoffs. FO readers know, of course, that Seattle is No. 1, but can you guess which other franchises have been among the top ten over the four-year span? You'll find out that Carolina has been better than you probably remember, and that Detroit has been surprisingly consistent in its mediocrity.

» More...

6 comments, Last at 16 Jan 2016, 3:38pm by johnmatthewsinla

06 Jan 2016, 05:41pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Breakout Players to Watch in January

I went through and looked at some lesser-known players who could make a big impact in the postseason. Well, lesser-known to most fans. I'm sure FO readers have heard of most of these guys: Tyler Lockett, David Johnson, James White, Kawann Short, Whitney Mercilus, Ryan Shazier, Ron Parker, and (as the next Justin Bethel/Matthew Slater on punt coverage) Jeff Janis.

» More...

0 comments

10 Dec 2015, 01:46pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Chiefs Now Among NFL's Best Teams

A closer look at what's changed since Week 5 for the Kansas City Chiefs, who actually have the highest DVOA in the league (50.3%) for Weeks 5-13.

» More...

2 comments, Last at 11 Dec 2015, 9:37am by FlippingADollar

09 Dec 2015, 02:20pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Ranking Head Coaches by Strategic Decision-Making

Which NFL coaches are best at handling key in-game situations such as challenges and fourth-down gambles? Using a metric called Strategic Score, Andrew Healy constructs the list. Ron Rivera is No. 1 for 2015.

» More...

16 comments, Last at 10 Dec 2015, 3:41pm by Kevin from Philly

20 Nov 2015, 01:28pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: NFL's Luckiest and Unluckiest Teams

Here's an article on ESPN Insider looking at which teams are likely to see regression in the second half because of elements of the game that are either out of their control or simply non-predictive. Among the items analyzed: performance in close games, fumble recovery rates, dropped passes by opponents, dropped interceptions, and performance by opposing kickers.

» More...

0 comments