Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

12 Sep 2011

ESPN: Is Miami a Playoff Contender?

A look at why our DVOA projections like Miami so much this season, and an overview of the subjective problems the Dolphins have that our system may not account for.

Posted by: Rivers McCown on 12 Sep 2011

7 comments, Last at 13 Sep 2011, 8:38am by Anonymous(not that one)

Comments

1
by t.d. :: Mon, 09/12/2011 - 8:06am

ypa is more relevant than completion percentage as a metric for qb effectiveness. completion percentage overvalues wco passers over qbs in other systems, whereas ypa already penalizes low percentage passers since their incompletes count as attempts. it just doen't double penalize them. not to say that henne doesn't have promise

2
by RichC (not verified) :: Mon, 09/12/2011 - 10:22am

Got any evidence for your statements?

I'd say a guy with 100% completion percentage at 8 YPA is significantly more valuable than a guy with 10% completion percentage and 8 YPA.

Its the same boom and bust argument as with running backs.

3
by Eddo :: Mon, 09/12/2011 - 11:50am

Yeah, in that extreme case, I think you're right.

But would you argue the same thing given one QB at 60% and 8.5 YPA against a guy at 67% and 7.0 YPA?

There's clearly a sliding scale involved.

4
by RichC (not verified) :: Mon, 09/12/2011 - 3:06pm

Of course there's a sliding scale. I never said otherwise.

I just don't think YPA is a good enough stat to ignore completion percentage.

5
by dstodolak :: Mon, 09/12/2011 - 3:25pm

OP didn't say completion percentage was irrelevant, just that YPA is more relevant. Which it is.

6
by johonny (not verified) :: Mon, 09/12/2011 - 11:26pm

Can Miami cover TEs, no. Are they going to playoffs, no.

7
by Anonymous(not that one) (not verified) :: Tue, 09/13/2011 - 8:38am

At least the coach isn't so freaking excited about FGs. Glad he'll be gone soon.