Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

08 Nov 2013

ESPN: Jaguars Are Least Competitive Team Since 1970

Something is rotten in the state of Florida, and it's not just Richie Incognito. Tampa Bay and Jacksonville are winless, but the Buccaneers have blown four fourth-quarter leads compared to the Jaguars holding four leads the entire season -- none coming after the 12-minute mark of the second quarter.

At Insider we look at the DVOA for all 0-8 teams since 1989, verifying the notion that the Buccaneers are the best 0-8 team and the Jaguars are the worst.

The lack of competitiveness from the Jaguars is astonishing as even the worst teams like the 1976 Buccaneers (expansion year) were still usually good enough to keep the game close late. They may continuously fail to make plays to win games, but at least they still put up a fight.

There have been 34 teams to start 0-8 since the merger. I've included a table that shows how many fourth-quarter comeback and game-winning drive opportunities each had while starting 0-8 (games 9-16 not considered). It also lists how many fourth-quarter leads they held.

0-8 Teams: 4QC/GWD Opportunities (Games 1-8)
Team Year 4QC Rec. GWD Rec. 4Q Leads Team Year 4QC Rec. GWD Rec. 4Q Leads
BUF 1971 N/A N/A 0 CIN 1991 0-4 0-4 2
SD 1975 N/A N/A 1 NE 1992 0-5 0-5 2
CLE 1975 N/A N/A 1 CIN 1993 0-5 0-6 3
TB 1976 0-5 0-5 1 CIN 1994 0-4 0-4 0
NYG 1976 N/A N/A 1 NYJ 1996 0-5 0-5 1
TB 1977 0-2 0-2 0 ATL 1996 0-4 0-4 2
CIN 1978 N/A N/A 2 IND 1997 0-5 0-5 1
SLC 1978 N/A N/A 1 SD 2000 0-5 0-6 4
NO 1980 N/A N/A 1 DET 2001 0-5 0-5 1
HOU 1983 0-4 0-4 1 MIA 2007 0-1 0-2 1
TB 1983 0-5 0-6 2 STL 2007 0-4 0-4 1
BUF 1984 0-5 0-5 1 DET 2008 0-5 0-5 3
HOU 1984 0-3 0-3 0 CIN 2008 0-6 0-6 2
TB 1985 0-5 0-5 1 BUF 2010 0-5 0-5 1
IND 1986 0-2 0-2 0 IND 2011 0-5 0-5 2
DAL 1989 0-2 0-2 1 JAC 2013 0-0 0-0 0
IND 1991 0-3 0-3 0 TB 2013 0-3 0-4 4

Tampa Bay's blown four leads (ties 2000 Chargers) while the Jaguars are the only team yet to even have an opportunity. Every other team, even the old ones without clear-cut data, had at least two opportunities. The other teams not to hold a fourth-quarter lead at least had a second-half lead, or in the case of the 1986 Colts, a second-half tie.

The 2013 Jaguars are the only team since the merger to not have a tie or lead after halftime through eight games.

It wouldn't surprise me if both teams got their first win this weekend, but through half a season, how they've played to produce that 0-8 record has been historical.

Posted by: Scott Kacsmar on 08 Nov 2013

10 comments, Last at 10 Nov 2013, 6:22pm by Scott Kacsmar

Comments

1
by doktarr :: Fri, 11/08/2013 - 4:10pm

It seems like 2000 San Diego edges out 2013 Tampa as the flukiest 0-8 start. The Jags seem to have been the least flukey, though.

2
by Revenge of the NURBS (not verified) :: Fri, 11/08/2013 - 4:57pm

Ryan Leaf was involved, so 2000 SD's record makes more sense.

Seriously, that team was 1-8 in one-score games. 6 losses by 3 or less. If clutchness truly exists, they possessed its exact opposite.

3
by Scott Kacsmar :: Fri, 11/08/2013 - 6:11pm

I recall the 2000 Chargers taking me a long time to put in the database with all their close losses. For the season they finished 1-15 overall and 1-9 at GWD opportunities. Amazingly, they blew 7 fourth-quarter leads and registered 3 lost comebacks.

Yes, Ryan Leaf involved, but Jim Harbaugh was the QB for 4 of those GWD losses.

4
by LionInAZ :: Fri, 11/08/2013 - 9:21pm

I'm a bit shocked to see that the 2008 Lions aren't on the list, but it is true that their big failure was defense, not offense.

It would be interesting to see the converse-- which teams blew the most 4Q leads over the same span. I bet the Lions show up at least once on that list.

5
by Scott Kacsmar :: Fri, 11/08/2013 - 9:33pm

They're on the right. Every 0-8 team since the merger's there. I just decided to split table in half and stretch it instead of a longer vertical one. 2008 Lions were 0-5 at 4QC and blew three 4Q leads on their way to 0-8.

6
by LionInAZ :: Sat, 11/09/2013 - 4:39pm

Thanks, I missed that. The tables get a little crowded when they're packed that way, and my eyes are a bit old.

7
by Theo :: Sun, 11/10/2013 - 11:49am

"It wouldn't surprise me if both teams got their first win this weekend"

Wait. What?
It wouldn't surprise you, if both win?
Even Jax fans aren't that optimistic.

8
by Scott Kacsmar :: Sun, 11/10/2013 - 5:15pm

Well there's one in the books. The tougher one too. I really do like Tampa Bay enough to outright pick them.

9
by Grantiespanties (not verified) :: Sun, 11/10/2013 - 6:12pm

Would you happen to have the data offhand to say which games the jaguars held leads in/for how long?

10
by Scott Kacsmar :: Sun, 11/10/2013 - 6:22pm

They led for a total of 22 minutes and 26 seconds heading into today where they led for almost the entire game.