Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

10 Dec 2013

ESPN: Why the Colts Are Sputtering

Reggie Wayne's injury has changed the offense, and Trent Richardson is imminently mockable, but the real problem here is regression for the pass defense.

Posted by: Rivers McCown on 10 Dec 2013

13 comments, Last at 22 Jan 2014, 2:03am by Pandora Bracelets Clearance

Comments

1
by lumberjack (not verified) :: Tue, 12/10/2013 - 3:23pm

In this article you dismissively refer to Da'Rick Rogers by saying,"there's a reason Rogers was available as an undrafted free agent." What is this "reason" you refer to? Outside of smoking pot, and a scuffle outside of a bar during his freshman year (which don't strike me as terribly unique offenses) I've never heard anyone really explain why Da'Rick is treated like Aaron Hernandez. People just keep making the same claims about this kid, without ever backing it up with facts.

5
by killwer :: Wed, 12/11/2013 - 8:40am

When a guy with Rogers's talent goes un-drafted and then is let go by a team with no real WRs, there is something we as outsiders do not know.

Most likely Roger weed problems was seen as a bigger problem than we thought (getting tossed out of Tennessee also takes some serious weed smoking skills). He most likely also interviewed terrible at the combine and might lack the "focus" to his craft.

There is often a reason why a player goes un-drafted. Remember GMs would rather draft crappy players with zero talent than use a 7th round pick on him.

6
by lumberjack (not verified) :: Wed, 12/11/2013 - 10:28am

Again, these aren't reasons, but rather just speculation that "there must be reasons". I can understand why people think that the GMs must have had reasons, but nobody seems to be able to point them out. Sure, Da'Rick had some minor league screw ups, but as far as I can tell they were nothing worse than what we could say about half of the guys who were drafted. Now, this kid is trying to make a career for himself, and sports writers regurgitate the same tired "Well, he must be a headcase" line without seeing if there is actually anything of substance to it. I'm just not sure why so much faith is placed in NFL GMs to play amateur psychologists. They hardly seem to be able to identify talent, let alone psychological issues.

In the end, Da'Rick will either turn out to be good, or he won't. His athletic ability and history of on-the-field performance suggest he has potential, but who knows? My question is, why people would want to blindly accept the company line about this guy, without a challenge? Of course, if Da'Rick turns out to be a success, everybody will claim that "the Colts' organization turned him around", rather than suggesting that everybody just misjudged the kid.

7
by iron_greg :: Wed, 12/11/2013 - 1:07pm

Since none of us are GMs or privy to this information, we can do nothing but make educated speculation, I don't see a problem with that.

If we were only allowed to talk about what we KNEW for a fact we would only be able to list box scores every week then carry on with our lives.

And I'd say GMs probably do better than you think - it says alot that all 32 teams pass on him. It says alot that GMs know BEFORE the draft typically which players will go undrafted (whether due to injury or whatever reason). Their base knowledge is still well above ours.

You're right he might be just fine, just like Vontaze Burfict might be fine. Of course Burfict commits personal fouls and taunting penalties practically every game so hmm there might have been some basis for the book on him. Bottom line is, the evidence SUGGESTS Rogers is what he is for a reason and its up to him to prove it now. He's had one big garbage time game so far; its something, but it aint much either.

8
by lumberjack (not verified) :: Wed, 12/11/2013 - 2:02pm

I hope you don't give your politicians such carte blanche freedom to make decisions. After all, they are also probably provided with more information than we are given. I guess there's no more reason to second guess them, than there is to question a man who traded a 1st round pick for Trent Richardson.

9
by tuluse :: Wed, 12/11/2013 - 2:20pm

Only two GMs used a first round pick on T.Rich, and one of them it out of the league.

If every senator and congressperson told me something was a bad idea for the US, I would be inclined to believe it.

10
by Purds :: Wed, 12/11/2013 - 2:47pm

Well, they all told you that it was a good idea to invade Iraq because either they were the source of the 9/11 terrorists or at the least had weapons of mass destruction. Still think that was a good idea even though they supposedly had more information than ewe did?

11
by tuluse :: Wed, 12/11/2013 - 3:03pm

What? No they didn't. 133 congresspeople and 23 senators voted against the resolution.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_Resolution#Passage

2
by BengalFaninIN :: Tue, 12/10/2013 - 6:00pm

The author doesn't say Da'Rick is a terrible person who should not be allowed loose, just that he's a free agent quality wide receiver. Which is clearly true, watch him play.

3
by Ben :: Tue, 12/10/2013 - 6:14pm

Well, he's only been on an active NFL roster for 2 games, so nobody has been able to "watch him play". In the first game he got significant playing time, he gained over 100 yards and scored twice. This past week very well could be the high point of his career, but who knows at this point.

12
by Bobman :: Thu, 12/12/2013 - 2:56am

Yup. Time will tell. He looked super (eh, a few drops) but the Bengals had no film on him and Luck was pressured at half his seasonal rate (about 20% of dropbacks compared to about 40%) so he had more time to make his receivers look good. Garbage time with a D playing a little softer didn't hurt the passing game, either.

The great thing for Colts fans, however, is his fit in the team. They've never had a big, physical guy at WR. Garcon was the closest I can recall, and really he was the same height as Wayne and Harrison (6-0 give or take), just 10 lbs heavier (guessing) and yet a lot more physical. Maybe it was the fanged MMA mouthpiece. A few years back the Colts waited for Roy Hall out of Ohio State to stop being injured because he would have been that guy--6-4, etc. But he couldn't stay on the field. In the past, it was not a big deal because a Manning O thrives on precise routes, timing, and good hands--he never threw up alley-oops. So at the end of a game/half, there was almost never a Hail Mary for Indy, but with Manning and Harrison and Wayne, it was usually not needed. Rogers is a different guy physically than they have had in the past. DHB is gone after this year I assume and the rest of their WR crew tops out at about 6-0.

The book on him is primarily a maturity issue, that led to other more specific offenses. He's talked about it in interviews and seems to have gotten a little wiser. But after nearly every catch, even an 8 yard out that finished OB, he never put the ball down of gave it to a ref--he always had to showboat and make it spin on its tip on the turf. ME! Look at ME!! MEEEEE!!! SEE WHAT I CAN DO!!!! I sure hope he outgrows that. That surely was not Colts football for the last 15 years. If every game is like last week, maybe it's fine. But maybe a low-key mentor like Wayne can help him both on field and off. Because if giving in to childish impulses to show off continues, there'll be flags, at the very least, should he spin the ball tauntingly at an opponent's feet (even unintentionally).

4
by herewegobrowniesherewego (not verified) :: Tue, 12/10/2013 - 11:26pm

If you played the usually-fairly-inaccurate "go through the schedule before the season and pick the W's and L's" game, you probably correctly picked them to be 2-1 v. AFC West to date and 2-2 v. NFC West...but you probably picked the Rams and Cards as NFC wins, reversed the Broncos and Bolts games, and figured the Raiders game would be an easier win. It's just a very unpredictable team.

13
by Pandora Bracelets Clearance (not verified) :: Wed, 01/22/2014 - 2:03am

I